The Bucs are looking for more sacks from their defensive line this year. Head coach Todd Bowles has been adamant that he needs a more consistent four-man pass rush. Last year’s squad needed heavy blitz packages to be effective. And while there is a need for creative blitz and sim pressure packages to keep up with an ever-evolving NFL, the best defenses can win with four rushers on a regular basis – allowing seven defenders to drop in coverage.

I had my concerns whether last year’s defensive unit could be what Bowles envisioned, and for the most part those concerns came to bear. On an individual basis, no pass rusher was able to operate at a level approaching dominant at anything remotely close to a consistent level.

Before producing my 2024 predictions tomorrow, I thought I would spend some time reviewing my predictions from last year to see if there are any learnings to be gained.

Here is a link to my attempt last year.

Evaluating The Bucs’ 2023 Sack Predictions

OLB Shaq Barrett

Prediction: 324 pass rush snaps, 34 pressures, 10.5% pressure rate, 5.5 sacks
Actual Production: 356 pass rush snaps, 49 pressures, 13.8% pressure rate, 4.5 sacks

Barret had a higher pressure rate than I expected, but he underperformed the league average conversion rate by almost six percent leaving his sack total close to my prediction. His total pressures led the team, but they were often late pressures that had little chance of generating actual sacks. The Bucs’ wisely moved on from the aging Barrett this offseason given his declining pressure and sack rate.

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka – Photo by: USA Today

OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka

Prediction: 390 pass rush snaps, 46 pressures, 11.75% pressure rate, 8 sacks
Actual Production: 280 pass rush snaps, 26 pressures, 9.29% pressure rate, 5 sacks

Tryon-Shoyinka was on pace to approach my predicted total of eight sacks, but had his volume reduced by a mid-season demotion. Had he reached my 390-pass rush snap forecast he would have recorded 36 pressures and seven sacks. I did correctly predict that he would finally convert pressures to sacks at a league-average rate. He actually outpaced the league by 3% at 19% overall.

OLB Anthony Nelson

Prediction: 250 pass rush snaps, 19 pressures, 7.5% pressure rate, 3.5 sacks
Actual Production: 187 pass rush snaps, 15 pressures, 8.0% pressure rate, 3 sacks

Nelson failed to get many opportunities to rush the passer, as the team opted for Markees Watts over him late in games that were blowouts. Nelson’s conversion rate came tumbling down to earth after a historic 43% clip in 2022, falling all the way to 13% last year. His pressure rate was close to my prediction as he actually generated pressure more consistently than the year prior.

Bucs OLB YaYa Diaby and 49ers QB Brock Purdy – Photo by: USA Today

OLB Yaya Diaby

Prediction: 235 pass rush snaps, 23 pressures, 9.75% pressure rate, 4 sacks
Actual Production: 293 pass rush snaps, 26 pressures, 8.87% pressure rate, 7.5 sacks

Fans may be surprised to see Diaby’s sack total fall in 2024, but unless he can improve some combination of his pressure rate or volume of rushes, he is due for some regression. That is because, like Nelson the year before, Diaby converted an inordinate number of his pressures to sacks (35%). His pressure rate was a little lower than my forecast last year while he saw an uptick in opportunities due to his promotion to the starting lineup midway through the season.

DT Vita Vea

Prediction: 300 pass rush snaps, 34 pressures, 11.25% pressure rate, 5 sacks
Actual Production: 387 pass rush snaps, 30 pressures, 7.75% pressure rate, 5.5 sacks

Vea played more than I expected on passing downs but was less effective as a consistent rusher than he had been to that point in his career and what I thought he would be. This most likely played a role in him deciding to get into better shape coming into this season. Nevertheless, the big man was still able to get to the quarterback 5.5 times last year. That was almost double the rate of the average interior defensive lineman as measured by conversion rate.

Bucs DT Calijah Kancey – Photo By: Cliff Welch P/R

DT Calijah Kancey

Prediction: 285 pass rush snaps, 27 pressures, 9.5% pressure rate, 3.5 sacks
Actual Production: 381 pass rush snaps, 34 pressures, 8.92% pressure rate, 4 sacks

Kancey didn’t quite hit my forecast for pressure rate (although I was pretty close!), but his sack total was fairly close. He logged more pressures than I anticipated, largely on the back of a higher volume workload than I envisioned.

DT Will Gholston

Prediction: 150 pass rush snaps, nine pressures, 6.0% pressure rate, 0.5 sacks
Actual Production: 115 pass rush snaps, six pressures, 5.2% pressure rate, 0 sacks

Gholston’s decline fell pretty in-line with where I thought it would be. He is now firmly in the fifth interior lineman world of production.

DT Logan Hall

Prediction: 300 pass rush snaps, 20 pressures, 6.67% pressure rate, 3 sacks
Actual Production: 330 pass rush snaps, 17 pressures, 5.15% pressure rate, 0 sacks

I didn’t have very high hopes for Logan Hall. And while he certainly improved as a run defender last year and showed he can be a decent rotational lineman; he underperformed the modest expectations I had for him as a pass rusher.

DT Greg Gaines

Prediction: 200 pass rush snaps, 11 pressures, 5.5% pressure rate, 1.5 sacks
Actual Production: 277 pass rush snaps, 11 pressures, 3.97% pressure rate, 1 sack

Gaines hit my total pressure expectation but required 39% more snaps than I thought he would get to do so. He is still an effective run defender who can play a solid backup nose tackle, but he is not an effective pass rusher at this point in his career.

As a group I predicted the above Bucs defenders to amass 2,434 pass rush snaps, 223 pressures and 34.5 sacks. Their actual production was 2,606 pass rush snaps, 214 pressures and 32 sacks.

On a rate basis I anticipated the group generating pressure at a 9.16% rate whereas their actual pressure rate was 8.21%. I expected them to convert pressures to sacks at a 15.5% clip. Their actual conversion rate was a tick lower at 14.95%.

Despite my overall concerns I was actually a little higher on the group than their actual performance bared out. Will my outlook change this year? Check back on Tuesday to find out.