After a crushing loss on Thursday Night Football in Week 5, the Bucs had a mini-bye week to rest up and prepare for Sunday’s Week 6 matchup against the Saints in New Orleans.

Tampa Bay comes in at 3-2, tied atop the NFC South but trailing Atlanta due to the head-to-head and divisional record tiebreakers. So, this game against 2-3 New Orleans is a big one both for momentum and the division race in the long run.

It’s understandably been an unusual week for the Bucs, as they headed to New Orleans early due to Hurricane Milton approaching the west coast of Florida. The team also made arrangements for families of players and staff, whether as part of the travel party in New Orleans or at resorts in Orlando.

As Hurricane Milton bears down on Tampa, the @Buccaneers, like so many others, are out. About 350 people are in the traveling party in New Orleans. The team put those choosing to stay in FL up in resorts in Orlando.

Team ops leaders Tim Jarocki & Zach Orth have done great work.

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) October 9, 2024

Incredible work by our staff @Buccaneers . Ownership has purchased 100s of rooms in Orlando for our employees and their extended families, organized additional planes to fly team to NO, pet shelters…grateful to work for this team. #footballisfamily. Stay safe 🙏 https://t.co/tMINj0lkE7

— Atul Khosla (@atulkhosla) October 9, 2024

Some members of the Pewter Report staff have evacuated from the Tampa Bay Area, while others who live more inland are hunkering down for the storm. Our thoughts and prayers are with those in the path of Hurricane Milton and anyone affected.

Now, as much as we can, let’s shift focus to football and preview Sunday’s big game between the Bucs and Saints at the Caesars Superdome.

The Last Time…

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The last meeting between these two NFC South rivals was a disappointing one for Tampa Bay. With a chance to clinch a three-peat as NFC South champions, the Bucs laid an egg and lost 23-13 on New Year’s Eve at Raymond James Stadium. They managed to clinch the division the next week, but there wasn’t much to like about that Week 17 loss to New Orleans.

The Saints took a 20-0 lead into the fourth quarter of that game, and two late Baker Mayfield touchdown passes weren’t enough to really get the Bucs back in it.

Mayfield finished that game 22-of-33 for 309 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. It was a career day for Trey Palmer, who caught four of his five targets for 84 yards and a touchdown. The Saints controlled possession and went 8-of-18 on third downs, while the Bucs went just 2-of-8.

New Orleans leads the all-time series 40-24, though Tampa Bay has a 1-0 edge in the playoffs and has won three of four meetings under head coach Todd Bowles.

How The Bucs And Saints Are Trending

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs have been hot and cold so far this year. They came out of the gates hot at 2-0 with big wins over the Commanders and Lions, then dropped an embarrassing result at home against the Broncos (which has aged better than it looked at the time, as they’ve won three straight). Tampa Bay then bounced right back to beat Philadelphia in convincing fashion the next week and was minutes away from another win to get to 4-1 only to fall apart late at Atlanta to drop to 3-2.

Baker Mayfield has been impressive through the first five weeks of the season, as he’s completed 71.9% of his passes for 1,164 yards and 11 touchdowns to just two interceptions. He’s well on his way to a career-high in touchdown passes and looks much more comfortable to start this year compared to the way everything looked last year.

Defensively, Tampa Bay’s pass rush has improved as the season has gone on. Logan Hall has three sacks in the last two weeks to lead the team, while Vita Vea and Anthony Nelson have two sacks apiece as well. As bad as the Buccaneer defense was in the Week 5 loss to the Falcons – especially over the middle of the field – it managed to have another good pass rush game. Getting Calijah Kancey back some point soon will be a huge boost, too.

Kirk Cousins averaged 2.3 seconds on his Time to Throw in week 5. Fastest since week 6 2021, and the Bucs still managed to pressure him over 30% of the time and notch 4 sacks.

Pass rush had a really solid game.

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) October 7, 2024

On the other side, the Saints are trending in the wrong direction. They were the NFL’s hottest and perhaps best team through two games considering they scored 47 and 44 points in their first two games, respectively, though they did play the Panthers and a struggling Cowboys team. Since starting 2-0, New Orleans has lost three straight, first losing 15-12 to Philadelphia before another narrow 26-24 loss to Atlanta in Week 4. Most recently, the Saints dropped a 26-13 decision to the Chiefs on Monday Night Football.

Saints RB Alvin Kamara and Bucs DB Christian Izien – Photo by: USA Today

Derek Carr is off to a solid start this year for the Saints offense, having completed 70.3% of his passes for 989 yards and eight touchdowns to four interceptions. But after suffering an oblique injury late in Monday night’s game against the Chiefs, he’ll miss some time. That could mean even more work for Alvin Kamara, who looks like the Alvin Kamara of old so far this season. He has 388 yards and five touchdowns on 91 carries (4.3 avg.) in addition to 23 catches on 28 targets for 214 yards (9.3 avg.) and another touchdown.

Defensively, the Saints aren’t allowing a whole lot of points so far this year. They aren’t defending the pass overly well, ranking 26th overall, but the 105 rushing yards per game they’re giving up ranks their run defense seventh-best in the league. The defense has played well enough to win four out of the team’s five games, really. The Chiefs loss may be the exception, but they lost a 15-12 game to the Eagles and even though they lost to the Falcons 26-24, the defense didn’t allow Atlanta to score an offensive touchdown.

Bucs Offense: 9th in scoring offense (25.4 PPG), 19th in total offense (321.8 yards per game), 16th in passing offense (213.0 yards per game), 20th in rushing offense (108.8 yards per game)

Saints Offense: T-4th in scoring offense (28.0 PPG), T-17th in total offense (323.2 yards per game), 21st in passing offense (196.0 yards per game), 10th in rushing offense (127.2 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: T-17th in scoring defense (22.8 points allowed per game), 30th in total defense (378.2 yards allowed per game), 28th in passing defense (258.4 yards allowed per game), T-15th in rushing defense (119.8 yards allowed per game)

Saints Defense: 8th in scoring defense (19.2 points allowed per game), 23rd in total defense (356.2 yards allowed per game), 26th in passing defense (251.2 yards allowed per game), 7th in rushing defense (105.0 yards allowed per game)

As of Wednesday night, the Bucs were 3.5-point favorites, with the Over/Under set at 41.5 (per BetUS).

What Might Decide This Bucs-Saints Matchup?

Bucs S Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

Help might be on the way for the Bucs, as the 10 days between that Week 5 loss and Sunday’s Week 6 contest could prove to be enough time to get some injured players back. Defensive tackle Calijah Kancey (calf) has yet to play this year, right tackle Luke Goedeke (concussion) and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (foot) haven’t played since Week 1 and wide receivers Trey Palmer (concussion) and Jalen McMillan (hamstring) could be in play. Palmer missed last week’s game, and McMillan has missed the last two.

The Saints have their own injury problems, and they’re coming off a short week. They were without guard Cesar Ruiz, right tackle Ryan Ramczyk, defensive end Payton Turner and linebackers Pete Werner and Willie Gay on Monday night in Kansas City. Starting center Erik McCoy and backup center Shane Lemieux are on injured reserve, too, and safety Will Harris picked up a hamstring injury in Monday’s game and didn’t return.

But the biggest news for the Saints on the injury front is the loss of quarterback Derek Carr, who left the Monday night loss to the Chiefs with an oblique injury and will miss a couple of weeks. Spencer Rattler, the team’s 2024 fifth-round pick (No. 150 overall) will start Sunday’s game against the Bucs.

So, between the Bucs potentially getting healthier and the Saints dealing with an extensive injury list that includes their starting quarterback, the matchup between these two teams starts there. But of course, there’s more to it.

Bucs WR Mike Evans and Saints CB Marshon Lattimore – Photo by: USA Today

For the Bucs offense, it’s all about starting fast, yes, but also finishing. After going 23 straight games (regular season and playoffs) without an opening-drive touchdown, they’ve scored on their first possession in each of the last two games. They’ve also scored 24 points in the first half in two straight games, but the second half hasn’t been as kind to them. Tampa Bay scored just nine points in the second half of its win over Philadelphia, then scored only six points in the second half of last week’s loss at Atlanta.

Tampa Bay is running the ball better, but still not well enough to completely lean on it to salt away games. Perhaps that’s a lesson offensive coordinator Liam Coen learned in the loss to Atlanta. Baker Mayfield threw the ball all over the Falcons defense for much of that game, but when it came down to killing clock and getting that final first down the offense needed, Coen kept it on the ground. Mayfield, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are the three best playmakers on the offense, and the Bucs’ play-caller needs to rely on them to carry the load in crunch time.

When the Bucs defense is on the field, it’s going to be all about the middle of the field. Kirk Cousins ate them alive last week, taking advantage of the absence of SirVocea Dennis. K.J. Britt is a liability in coverage, and at age 34, Lavonte David isn’t the same as he once against the pass. Whether it’s Haener or Rattler under center for New Orleans, they’ll surely look to attack the middle of the field the way Atlanta did. Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak will need to be smart about his approach given the dropoff (especially in terms of experience) from Carr to Rattler.

The Saints will be hoping their young quarterback of choice is the next to get one over on Todd Bowles and the Bucs defense. Bowles can’t afford to let Kubiak out-scheme him and allow Rattler to do what the likes of Bo Nix, Brock Purdy, P.J. Walker and Daniel Jones have done to the Tampa Bay defense in past years. If the Bucs defense gets after the quarterback, holds Alvin Kamara in check and has some answers over the middle of the field, it’s fair to like the team’s chances to bounce back this week.

Key Players To Watch

Even after Mike Evans had the big two-touchdown day in Week 5 to claim the team lead with five, Chris Godwin remains the Bucs’ leading receiver. He has 32 catches on 40 targets for 386 yards (12.1 avg.) and three touchdowns, and he’s looked far more like the Godwin of old so far this season. He’ll have a tough matchup in the slot with Saints nickelback Alontae Taylor, but Godwin needs to get going to get the Tampa Bay offense going. After all, 25 of his 32 catches this year have gone for first downs. That’s the second-best mark in the NFL, and he’ll need to build on it in Week 6.

Bucs ILB Lavonte David – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Lavonte David will be a big key on defense for Tampa Bay. With Derek Carr out and Spencer Rattler in, New Orleans will want to make life as simple as possible for the rookie in his debut. So, Alvin Kamara may get a whole lot of work, and David (alongside K.J. Britt) will need to keep him from hitting home runs. Blitzing Rattler with a veteran like David may be in the cards for Todd Bowles, too.

As much as Kamara will need to do in both the run game and pass game, the Saints will need their receivers to step up for Rattler as well. With respect to Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed might be the most dangerous right now. He’s the team’s leading receiver by a decent margin, and he’s a threat in the middle of the field. Per PFF, he has three catches for 172 yards and three touchdowns on six “deep center” targets. He has two catches for 33 yards on three intermediate center targets, while he has five for 28 combined between short center and behind the line of scrimmage center targets.

Nickel cornerback Alontae Taylor may be the Saints’ best defender so far this season, and he’ll draw a tough assignment against Chris Godwin. As well as Godwin has been playing, Taylor has been quite the playmaker himself. His 3.5 sacks are the second-most on the team, and his six tackles for loss are the most on the team. He also has four passes defensed and two forced fumbles.

Bucs at Saints Game Information

When: Sunday, October 13
Where: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans, LA)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX – Adam Amin (Play by Play), Greg Olsen (Analyst), Pam Oliver (Reporter)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martín Gramática (Analyst), Santiago Gramática (Reporter)