Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

In Week 3, the Bucs fell to 2-1 on the season with a 25-11 loss to the unbeaten Eagles on Monday Night Football. The Saints blew a 17-0 lead at Green Bay before losing to the Packers, 18-17, to also fall to 2-1.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Bucs CB Carlton Davis III and Saints WR Chris Olave – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs really don’t want to enter the bye week with two straight losses after a 2-0 start. Both of Tampa Bay’s wins have come against 0-3 teams in Minnesota and Chicago. So just how good are the Bucs? Can they beat a team that they are on par with? A loss to the unbeaten Eagles showed them that they aren’t on par with Philadelphia. The 2-1 Saints will serve as a much better measuring stick.

The Bucs started 2-0 last year before winding up 2-2 in the first month. That led to Tampa Bay hovering around .500 all season long before finishing 8-9. A 3-1 start would be huge because it would take three straight losses for the Bucs to fall below .500. And a 3-1 start heading into the bye week would give this young team some confidence heading into a tough game against Detroit on Oct. 15. Yet at 2-2, one more loss and Tampa Bay is under .500 again like last year, where the team is spending the entire season treading water.

Sunday’s game will be the first divisional contest for the Bucs and the second for the Saints. Their next divisional game will be at home against the Falcons on Oct. 22. After that, the rest of the Bucs’ NFC South games will occur in December. Getting off to a 1-0 start in division play would be a big psychological boost for Tampa Bay, and seeing as how New Orleans might be the biggest threat to the Bucs three-peating as division champs, winning at the Superdome again would go a long way toward that endeavor.

What’s At Stake For The Saints

Bucs ILB Lavonte David and Saints QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Saints are four weeks into the Derek Carr era and they could be without his services this week as he suffered an injury to his right (throwing) shoulder against the Packers in a crushing 18-17 loss at Green Bay. Carr has been average at best, but now the Saints may have to turn to Jameis Winston, the Bucs’ starter from 2015-19, to play against his former team. The last time Tampa Bay played Winston, he threw three fourth-quarter interceptions, including a pick-six, that allowed the Bucs to win 20-10 in Week 2 last year.

The Saints are 2-1 after barely beating the 1-2 Titans, 16-15, and the winless Panthers, 20-17 before blowing a 17-point lead at Green Bay last week. New Orleans could use a win against a formidable team to help its confidence. And a victory over Tampa Bay would give the Saints an early 2-0 lead in the division.

New Orleans wouldn’t mind another close victory, as a win is a win, and they’re tough to come by in the NFL. But the Saints would like to see their offense come to life on Sunday. New Orleans is averaging just 17.7 points per game, which ranks 25th in the league. One of the Saints’ touchdowns last week came on a 76-yard punt return by Rashid Shaheed, so the offense only scored 10 points against the Packers. New Orleans would like to see its offense erupt this week, but that might be tough against a stingy Tampa Bay defense.

The Bucs Win If…

Bucs CB Jamel Dean and ILB Devin White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Todd Bowles is correct in stating that turnovers usually decide who wins the Bucs vs. Saints games. After losing seven straight games in the regular season to New Orleans, Tampa Bay finally swept the Saints in 2022 by winning the turnover margin, 5-3. Both games were close, and expect this one to be close as well. The Bucs and Eagles tied in turnover margin with 2-2 on Monday night, and without a turnover advantage, Tampa Bay lost.

Tampa Bay’s offense needs to be able to run the ball to achieve more balance and help the defense, which was on the field for 78 plays on Monday night as Philadelphia dominated the time of possession and held the ball for 38 minutes. The Bucs want to be able to use the ground game to draw the linebackers and safeties closer to the line of scrimmage to hit explosive plays in the passing game. Tampa Bay was unable to do that against Philly’s defense.

The Bucs defense registered just one sack on Monday night, and that was a gift as Jalen Hurts tripped behind the line of scrimmage. The Saints offensive line is awful and has surrendered 12 sacks in three games. Tampa Bay’s pass rush needs to come alive as it did against Chicago and get to either Jameis Winston or Derek Carr on Sunday.

The Saints Win If…

Saints WR-PR Rashid Shaheed – Photo by: USA Today

The New Orleans offensive line has to step up and slow down Tampa Bay’s pass rush. The Saints are allowing an average of four sacks per game and that is killing drives and hurting the offense’s production. It also got Derek Carr’s throwing shoulder hurt as well, as usually reliable right tackle Ryan Ramczyk allowed two sacks to Green Bay’s Rashaan Gary, who knocked Carr out of the game. Left tackle Trevor Penning, last year’s first-round pick, has given up three sacks so far this year. He has to play better. Starting guard Cesar Ruiz is dealing with a concussion, so backup Andrus Peat must step in and step up.

At some point, the Saints offense needs to get going. New Orleans has just two passing touchdowns this season and Chris Olave has yet to score. Perhaps the return of running back Alvin Kamara from a suspension will help. Kamara is a good runner who could aid New Orleans’ dismal ground game, which is averaging just 93.3 yards per game. But Kamara can also be a weapon in the screen game, and timely screens could take advantage of the Bucs’ pass rush.

One of the Saints’ touchdowns last week came on a 76-yard punt return by Rashid Shaheed, who could be the fastest player on either team. The Bucs allowed some big punt returns from Britain Covey on Monday night and could be susceptible to letting Shaheed have a big day. Shaheed could be a difference-maker on Sunday.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs WR Mike Evans vs. Saints CB Marshon Lattimore

Bucs QB Tom Brady, Bucs WR Mike Evans and Saints CB Marshon Lattimore – Photo by: USA Today

This is the seventh year that Mike Evans and Marshon Lattimore have squared off since the New Orleans cornerback entered the league in 2017 as a first-round pick. These two competitors do not like each other and have gotten in several altercations over the years, but last year’s was a real doozy. Evans got into a fight with Lattimore and safety Marcus Maye, who will be out on Sunday due to a PED suspension, in Week 2 last year and it resulted in his ejection and suspension for Week 3. Evans has to keep his composure and not hurt his team by fighting with Lattimore again.

This matchup has been close over the years, with Lattimore holding Evans to four catches for 60 yards in the Bucs’ Week 2 win, but missed the rematch later in the year where Evans had four catches for 59 yards as Tampa Bay swept New Orleans. Both Evans and Lattimore are off to hot starts. Evans has 17 catches for 297 yards and three touchdowns through three games. Lattimore has six passes defensed and one interception and has yet to allow a touchdown.

The Bucs’ passing game runs through Evans, as Chris Godwin has just 13 catches for 148 yards and is averaging a paltry 10.8 yards per catch. If Evans is shut down by Lattimore or doesn’t come close to his season average of 99 yards per game, Godwin will need to step up. With starting cornerback Paulson Adebo dealing with a hamstring injury, Godwin may need to be the star in New Orleans if Evans can’t get open on Sunday.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs NCB Christian Izien vs. Saints slot WRs

Bucs CB Christian Izien Photo by: USA Today

Christian Izien, the Bucs’ undrafted free agent nickel cornerback, has been a pleasant surprise on defense so far. The Rutgers product had interceptions in back-to-back games to start the season before that streak came to end on Monday night against the Eagles. The Bucs would love to see him come up with another pick in New Orleans, as they’ll need to win the turnover battle to leave the Superdome victorious.

The Saints rotate all three of their top receivers in the slot, which means that Izien needs to prepare to face the likes of Michael Thomas, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Each presents a different challenge for the rookie defensive back. Thomas is a big, physical receiver at 6-foot-3, 212. He’s made a living in this league picking up first downs on slant routes. Successfully defending him will be a big challenge for the 5-foot-9, 210-pound Izien.

But Olave and Shaheed present different and perhaps more challenging problems. Olave is a smooth route runner with the ability to make difficult, contested catches, and has the speed to get vertical. But Shaheed is even faster and more explosive. Whether it’s a vertical route or a crossing route, Shaheed has the ability to separate and is averaging 17 yards per catch so far this season. Both Olave and Shaheed are also 6-foot, so Izien could be in for a real fight facing all three Saints targets.