The Bucs won a close one at home against the one-win Carolina Panthers, 21-18. With just over two minutes left in the game the Panthers were driving for a potential game-tying field goal or even a go-ahead touchdown. After starting the drive with two runs for nine yards Carolina faced a third-and-1 on its own 40 just about 15 yards outside of kicker Eddie Pinero’s range.

That’s when the next two-play sequence would prove to be the deciding factor in the game.

Bucs’ Big Play No. 1: Third-and-1

The clock was still ticking down to the two-minute warning following a second-and-5 run for four yards. The Panthers lined up with two tight ends in line to the left and receiver Adam Thielen motioning into the line for a very condensed run look. The Bucs responded in kind with nine players in the box.

Does all of this seem familiar? I want you to think back just seven days to the Bucs’ road loss to the Colts. One play became the backbreaker that eventually led to their defeat. On fourth-and-1 the Colts faked a run before quarterback Gardner Minshew found tight end Mo Allie-Cox for a 30-yard gain to set up a touchdown that all but sealed the Colts victory.

Carolina offensive coordinator Thomas Brown may have had that play in the back of his mind when he called for play-action to try and convert the first down.

Last defensive drive of the game. Two big plays to seal the victory. Started with this forced incompletion on 3rd and one. pic.twitter.com/vH54PaoSyN

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) December 5, 2023

The difference between the Colts game and the Panthers game is two-fold.

Bucs ILB SirVocea Dennis – Photo by: USA Today

One, on the Panthers side, while this certainly had all of the earmarks of a potential run, it was not nearly as much of a “sell-out” look as when the Colts went with 23 personnel (two running backs, three tight ends, and no wide receivers) the week prior. With two receivers on the field and one still lined up out wide the Bucs were more likely to guard against the pass at least a little.

The second difference is in how individual defenders read out the play. Specifically, persona non grata Ryan Neal. Neal (No. 23) played almost the entire game out of position as the Bucs de facto No. 2 inside linebacker after K.J. Britt was ruled out with a back injury early in the first half.

Neal had an up-and-down game with four tackles (including a touchdown-saving stop) and a missed tackle while being spotty as a filler in run defense. He had some sheds and certainly played admirably for the job he was asked to do in a bad circumstance.

But on this play, he was crucial to forcing a fourth down. Neal was able to quickly diagnose the run fake, find Panthers tight end Ian Thomas peeling off the line of scrimmage on a shallow cross, and get in phase on the route. The result was Neal taking away Panthers quarterback Bryce Young’s first read on a two-route combo.

Additional to Neal’s smart read and play was that of cornerback Carlton Davis III. Davis has had a poor campaign in 2023 with his performance against the Texans in week 10 being perhaps the worst game of his career. But memories of fans are long when it comes to poor play and short when it comes to improved play, and many might not notice that in the past two weeks Davis has returned to his above average ways.

Bucs DBs Ryan Neal and Christian Izien Photo by: USA Today

He certainly played very well against Carolina. That was in part because head coach Todd Bowles gave Davis and the rest of the Bucs secondary the opportunity to play more press-man than in most weeks. That’s what he was able to do on this play.

Davis (No. 24) delivered a good punch/jam to Panthers’ receiver Jonathan Mingo at the line, leveraged Mingo to an inside release and then stayed in lockstep with him down the field on a vertical route. As Young rolled out off of the play-action, Mingo was hardly an option as it would have required the young quarterback to have to effectively throw back across his body.

The final piece to this play’s puzzle was the play of backside defender Zyon McCollum. McCollum (No. 27) read out the play from the backside of the run fake well and got into pursuit-mode on Young quickly. This cut off any hope for Young to pull the ball down and try to run for a first down.

Bucs’ Big Play No. 2: Fourth-and-1

Following that play, with 2:21 left in the game, two timeouts plus the two-minute warning you would think Brown would call a more traditional run. Young had a couple of decent throws in the game but had not played well. The Panthers running game had been the most consistent aspect of their offense to that point. But Brown instead opted to throw out of shotgun. Not even a run fake to try and freeze the Bus second-level defenders.

And the final play on 4d. Bowles trusts the secondary to go man against CAR receiver corps that has trouble separating. Allows AWJ 2 follow Young’s movement and 👀 for the eventual pick. 5-man rush causes Young 2 bail from a reasonably clean pocket where Kancey forces the issue. https://t.co/LNOz4z5uX3 pic.twitter.com/BAin64m5FJ

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) December 5, 2023

The Panthers correctly deciphered the Bucs would be in man coverage again and ran a mirrored combination to each side of the 2×2 look to try and beat the Bucs’ one-on-ones. The goal for Carolina was to run a return route underneath a cross/dig over top. With each side of the formation running these combinations from tight/stacked splits the hope was that the muddied traffic would allow the pivot/return routes to break open long enough for Young to find an open man.

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

This almost happened to his initial read’s direction. Thomas was able to break back to the outside underneath fellow tight end Stephen Sullivan and gain separation from Bucs linebacker J.J. Russell. But by the time that occurred Young was already bailing from the pocket after getting nervous about the Bucs’ five-man rush.

It makes sense as Tampa Bay was able to get pressure on Young on almost 75% of his drop backs when they sent more than four rushers.

That left Young trying to find Thielen on his return route. Davis had the route sniffed out and was in position to make the potential catch a difficult one. So, as Young scrambled to his right he motions Thielen to take his route vertical hoping Thielen could gain separation from Davis.

That’s when Antoine Winfield Jr. plays spoiler. Since the Bucs were in cover-1 with two tight ends to his right and two receivers to his left he was able to cheat to the receiver side where the danger of verticality was greater. After seeing Young scramble to his left Winfield was able to start closing on Thielen and easily track the ball out of Young’s hands for his second interception in three weeks.

Bucs’ Pass Defense Played Well Against Subpar Opponent

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

The Panthers have sixth-worst passing attack in the NFL as measured by EPA/pass. So taking any broad strokes conclusions away from two plays or even the game as a whole would be folly. With that said, the Bucs can feel encouraged about some of the process and results of their defensive performance on Sunday.

Thirty-three pressures were good. Holding Young to 15-of-31 passing for 178 yards, 5.7 yards per attempt, no touchdowns while forcing an interception are all great results. And the Bucs secondary playing well in more man coverage looks was also encouraging for things to come.

The test will be greater this week as Tampa Bay’s defense will face better separators and a better offensive line. But the hope is they can take this momentum and let it snowball … in a good way.