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About the Author: Joshua Queipo

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Josh Queipo joined the Pewter Report team in 2022, specializing in salary cap analysis and film study. In addition to his official role with the website and podcast, he has an unofficial role as the Pewter Report team’s beaming light of positivity and jokes. A staunch proponent of the forward pass, he is a father to two amazing children and loves sushi, brisket, steak and bacon, though the order changes depending on the day. He graduated from the University of South Florida in 2008 with a degree in finance.
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Reviewing the tape from the Bucs 27-14 loss to the 49ers and something grabbed my attention and would not let go. As a professional communicator I of course have to share. It didn’t take long for me to find it either. The Bucs’ second drive of the game stood out as something very different from what they have put together this year thus far. And in my mind, it very much tested the old adage “How much is too much?” Let me set the scene.

Tampa Bay’s first drive was a bust from an execution standpoint. They had suffered a three-and-out after attempting two deeper shots bookending a four-yard run. The first pass (on first down!) was a good decision as Baker Mayfield attempted to find Mike Evans on a deep 18-yard out off of a play action fake.

Evans had his elbow grabbed as he stemmed the out and got knocked off of his spot trying to come free of the hold. This allowed the corner to undercut him and almost pick off Mayfield’s pass. On third down Mayfield identified a six-man rush and tried to find Rakim Jarrett on a double move. Jarrett executed the fake well and was coming free, but again he was held off the fake which prevented him from getting into position on the fade ball. Neither contact was called by the referees on a day where they largely let San Francisco’s secondary run roughshod over the Bucs receivers and the Bucs were forced to punt.

That’s when Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales decided to deploy a different strategy. And it had to be one he was cooking up all week based off of something he and the advanced scout team figured out going through discovery on the 49ers leading into the game.

Exploit The Flats

The second drive of the game featured 11 plays and almost everyone featured misdirection with an emphasis on winning at the perimeter. Allow me to illustrate.

First-and-10 TB 15

The Bucs started by catching the 49ers off guard. The play did not gain much but it certainly came as an unexpected surprise for San Francisco defensive coordinator Steve Wilks’ unit. Canales dialed up a quarterback option that Baker Mayfield executed perfectly as 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa bit hard on the handoff to Rachaad White from shotgun.

This gave Mayfield room to run up field for…three yards. Mayfield has had a good season on his feet by his standards with 139 yards and 11 first downs on the ground. By season’s end those totals may grow to career highs (currently 165 and 18 respectively). But no one is going to confuse Mayfield for Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields. And while the 49ers did not expect the option, they were able to recover quickly and stop Mayfield for a moderate gain.

But this run was a counter to a tendency the Bucs have shown throughout the year which is running on first down. Yes, this was a run as well. But the Bucs have run QB option less than a handful of times this year and almost exclusively in the low red zone. No one was expecting them to do it 85 yards away from paydirt and to lead off a drive.

Second-and-7 TB 18

Following the change-up, Canales and the offense went back to a more traditional call that the Bucs have run throughout the year with a split zone run.

White was able to press for four, and it could have been more if Cade Otton had gotten to the defensive end on the split block just a step or two earlier. He was able to stone the defender, but late which forced White to have to slow, re-route and get to the hole late. Still Otton didn’t whiff on the block, so…progress? This put the Bucs up against third down for the second time on the day. That’s where the fun begins.

Third-and-3 TB 22

Canales had a third-and-short and decided to run a four-man stack from an empty set. It’s a creative look and it’s the first time the Bucs were able to test this short perimeter opportunity in the 49ers defense.

Otton is able to seal the outside path and Trey Palmer gets after it on the lead block up the field as White creates in space for eight yards. This gives the Bucs their first earned first down of the game.

First-and-10 TB 30

Having found success on the perimeter Canales doubles down with another play designed to get White to the flats with lead blockers. He calls for a swing screen to the right. This might as well be a variation of a toss sweep as Canales is clearly trying to manufacture a run game where a traditional run game has not worked for him season to date.

Otton coming off of motion becomes the lead blocker and he, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans all execute solid blocks to help White gain five yards. White is able to hold Fred Warner off as he gets up and down at the end of the run to make it a successful play setting up 2nd and five.

Second-and-5 TB 35

This is where the Bucs add some more creativity and help slow the 49ers pass rush. Canales calls for a play action roll out to the left. He leads it off with putting Deven Thompkins in motion to the left boundary and keeps him in motion at the snap. This creates the look of a fast wheel route, and the 49ers are caught with linebacker Dre Greenlaw following Thompkins to the boundary as he is responsible for the speedy receiver.

Given the disparity in speed between the two players Greenlaw has to bail to protect the vertical possibility almost immediately. This allows Thompkins to quickly cut the route to a hitch and present as wide-open for Mayfield on the rollout to his weak side. The result is a quick four-yard win. A penalty on the 49ers negated the play, but the design and execution were still really fun.

Remember this play.

Second-and-1 TB 39

At this juncture a shot play would be my preference. The down and distance are perfect for it. Run a play action with a clear out to the left and an over route developing under it. Give a tight end check release tag to the flat if neither develops. It just feels like a lost opportunity for a chunk. Heck, even a traditional mid-zone run, or counter or duo is likely to be successful in that it would pick up a new set of downs. And the Bucs are one of the worst teams in the league at runs that are deemed successful. It could have been an opportunity to give the run game an easy win to build confidence.

But Canales continued to press the envelope on these quick wins to the perimeter. This time with a delayed screen to Chase Edmonds off of play action. The result is 11 yards as the longest single play of the drive. I like the concept and it is executed well enough. I enjoy that it was a part of the gameplan. But in that situation was it necessary to burn it there? This may sound nit-picking to take issue with a play that worked well, but this is where I wonder about Canales’ play-tunneling.

From an execution standpoint Aaron Stinnie helped spring the play with a good lead block.

First-and-10 Midfield

In what becomes a trend during this drive, the Bucs offense follows up a play that features a specific player with another play to that same player. Earlier it was the back-to-back screens to White. This time Canales goes with a swing toss to Edmonds following the screen. The play is initially blocked up well with Palmer pinning Chase Young and Otton, Stinnie and Tristan Wirfs getting out in front. Robert Hainsey gets tripped up from behind and can’t stay on top of the nose tackle who comes across to eventually bring down Edmonds for a 3-yard gain.

Second-and-7 SF 47

Having used White and Edmonds consecutively on successive plays Canales turned to his burner wide receiver who has been so close to breaking open in multiple games this year: Trey Palmer. The lead off is a reverse with Baker Mayfield as the lead blocker taking on Joey Bosa. I don’t care who you are, that’s just plain fun to watch.

Palmer has an opportunity to cut up field before he gets to the sideline, and it may have allowed him more space to get more out of the call. But six yards on first down is still a win. Also Mayfield is so much fun to follow and watch. For some of his limitations there might not be five other quarterbacks in the league more fun to watch play.

Third-and-1 SF 41

We’ve seen it twice on this drive, so I am hoping you are expecting this play to go to Palmer…because it does. After the nifty reverse Canales calls on 10 again with a perimeter screen. Palmer is just able to convert for the first down despite a solid block from Mike Evans.

A three-yard gain gives the Bucs a new set of downs now in field goal range. Already down 7-0, this is a big step as it means the Bucs have a good chance at keeping things close.

First-and-10 SF 38

At this point Canales has really tested how far one team can try to expose a minor hole in an otherwise very good opponent. I’m questioning whether another play to the short perimeter won’t start to backfire. But wisely, the Bucs offensive coordinator throws another wrinkle. Tampa Bay’s running game has been horrid this year in part due to the predictability of when it is called upon. We saw it earlier in the drive when Bosa bit hard on the option fake to White.

But now Canales has San Francisco’s defense, well…on the defense. They’ve allowed multiple first downs to this manufactured short game to the perimeter. They are hedging for it. And that’s when Canales takes advantage with a traditional gap run up the middle for six yards.

You can see the 49ers linebackers are slow to fit the run on this play and that is likely because of how much the Bucs offense had run fakes and got the ball outside. The result was a positive run that was blocked up well by an offensive line that has struggled with that very thing this year. Here’s a look from the end zone.

Cody Mauch and Hainsey execute a good double team that forms the tip of the sword allowing White to get up field. While it all was technically for naught as the Bucs accepted a penalty on San Francisco it should have served as a confidence booster for the run game.

First-and-5 SF 33

And now we get to the final play of the drive. A big thud to end an otherwise interesting and productive drive. I’ll start by noting that I don’t like the play call in this situation. Much like the earlier second-and-1, the Bucs had a first-and-5 and had not attacked the 49ers vertically at all on the now 11-play drive. You play that close to the line for that long you are inviting trouble.

This was another perfect opportunity for a shot play. If it doesn’t hit, you still have two plays to pick up five yards. Push it down field and make San Fransisco continue to respect the vertical element of the offense.

But instead, Canales goes back to the well again. He dials up another play-action boot to a quick hitch for Thompkins. But this time there is not motion tag for him to launch from. Set on the boundary he gets a traditional corner matchup. The only vertical element to the play concept is Cade Otton on a deep cross over Thompkins and Godwin. Godwin is tasked with a static route as well running a 10-yard curl. With Mayfield booting to the sideline, it becomes a half field read with finite options.

Really this should be Thompkins or throw-away. If the quick hitch doesn’t come open Mayfield is easily running to the sideline where he can either a) push up field for a couple of yards on the ground or b) toss the ball into the sidelines as he is already outside the tackle box and not in danger of getting called for intentional grounding. While the call in that situation, like I said, was a poor choice in my estimation, it did have the benefit of being almost turnover proof. Almost.

Bucs Qb Baker Mayfield

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Poor situational awareness is the best way I can describe Mayfield’s actions. His overall makeup as a guy who will try to squeeze wine out of a stone is a laudable characteristic. But there has to be limits.

Down 14 with six minutes left in the game. Makes sense to try and scramble back to the middle of the field through line traffic to make something happen (or maybe not as that would keep chewing clock). Certainly, on a key third or fourth down late in the game. What I am saying is there are times and places where Mayfield’s decision in this moment make sense.

In the second quarter he scrambled on a key third-and-2 for a first down. Regardless of outcome that made sense. This was not the time. This was not the place. It was first down. It was early in the game. The Bucs were already in field goal range.

Prior to this game Mayfield had done an admirable job of reducing his propensity for turnover-worthy plays. I have always maintained he was more of a middle-of-the-pack guy in that regard anyway as opposed to the turnover machine reputation he had undeservedly earned over the first five years of his career. But no matter this year he was one of the best quarterbacks in the league at avoiding the dreaded turnover.

With all that said there is no justification for this decision. And the 49ers made him pay for it. It’s unfortunate because the drive was working despite some flaws. And it could have set a different tone for the events that unfolded later. Too bad.

Bucs Takeaways

While the end result was disappointing there are key macro-level takeaways that this drive lead to.

  • Dave Canales is showing he can game plan to exploit a potential weakness in his opposition. This is a step forward from past regimes who would try to impose their offense on every opponent regardless of matchup advantages/disadvantages.
  • There are still growing pains for Canales as a play-caller. For all the creativity in the manufactured short/quick game he leaned in a little too hard and more than a half-dozen plays on a single drive trying to exploit a weakness that yields 3-8 yards per play invites errors that kill drives. He would dial up a counter to this overall plan in the second half with a face perimeter screen to White on a third-and-two where Mayfield let loose a deep fade ball to Trey Palmer who had it ripped from his hands on his way down. It was a good play call and great execution from Mayfield to put the ball into a tight window. Palmer made a solid play on it, but Charvarius Ward made a hell of a play to break it up.
  • And yes, there is such thing as too much of a good thing.
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