After last week’s disappointing 23-20 loss to the Panthers in Charlotte, the Bucs had their backs against the wall heading into Week 17. At 7-8, Tampa Bay trailed Carolina by a game in the NFC South standings, and as Todd Bowles and Co. took the field in Miami, they knew they needed a win to make sure there was no risk of their Week 18 rematch with the Panthers being rendered meaningless before they even got to it.

With a win, the Bucs could set up a win-and-in scenario for that game against the Panthers at Raymond James Stadium in Week 18. The same scenario could still exist with a Bucs loss, but it would require the Panthers to lose to the Seahawks in Charlotte on Sunday afternoon and one more Falcons loss over the final two weeks. Otherwise, a Tampa Bay loss and a Carolina win would end the four-time defending NFC South champions’ reign and signal a changing of the guard in the division.

So, how did it all play out?

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Nathan Ray Seebeck

The Bucs looked completely uninspired in their must-win game, instead looking the part of a team coasting to the end of the season and looking ahead to the offseason. That’s what the 6-9 Dolphins were supposed to be, but they took it to the Bucs pretty much from start to finish on their way to a 20-17 victory. So, with the loss, Tampa Bay dropped to 7-9 and needed help from Seattle in order to stay alive heading into Week 18.

And as it turned out, the Bucs got the help they needed. The Panthers hung around with the Seahawks early, with the two teams heading into halftime knotted at 3-3. But a 14-0 run gave Seattle a 17-3 lead and while Carolina would get within 17-10 in the fourth quarter, a 10-0 run for the NFC West leaders sent Dave Canales and Co. to a loss that dropped their record to 8-8.

So now, the 7-9 Bucs and 8-8 Panthers will meet at Raymond James Stadium in Week 18 to decide the NFC South. Maybe?

There is one qualifier worth mentioning, as the Bucs now also need help in Week 18. With the Falcons’ win over the Rams on Monday night, the Bucs-Panthers game on Saturday afternoon isn’t as simple as winner-takes-all. If Carolina wins, yes, the division is decided. But if Tampa Bay wins, it will also need a New Orleans win over Atlanta on Sunday afternoon in order to clinch an NFC South five-peat. Because even though Atlanta has been eliminated from contention for weeks, the tiebreaker scenario is different for a three-way tie in the division. 

In a three-way tie at 8-9 between the Bucs, Panthers and Falcons, the Panthers would win the NFC South thanks to their 3-1 record against the other two teams. In a two-way tie between the Bucs and Panthers, the Bucs still win out. So, now that the Falcons are entering Week 18 at 7-9, they need to lose to the Saints and finish 7-10 for the Bucs to win the division at 8-9. 

This is all so dumb, isn’t it?

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Nathan Ray Seebeck

Elsewhere in the division, the Saints beat the Titans 34-26 behind another 300-yard day from rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. That got New Orleans to 6-10.

NFC South Standings Through Week 17

Carolina Panthers – 8-8 (3-2 in NFC South)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 7-9 (2-3 in NFC South) — 1 game back
e — Atlanta Falcons – 7-9 (2-3 in NFC South) — 1 game back
e — New Orleans Saints – 6-10 (3-2 in NFC South) — 2 games back

(e –: eliminated from playoff contention)

As for the NFC playoff picture, there was plenty decided before Sunday’s action even began. Starting on Christmas Day, the Lions turned the ball over six times in a 23-10 loss to the Vikings. That was a loss that dropped Detroit to 8-8 and officially eliminated the two-time defending NFC North champions from playoff contention. Meanwhile, it meant that the Packers clinched a playoff spot ahead of their Saturday night game against the Ravens at Lambeau Field.

However, Green Bay needed to win that Saturday night contest to keep its NFC North title hopes alive. Derrick Henry had other ideas, though, as he ran for 216 yards and four touchdowns to lead the Ravens to a 41-24 win over the Packers. With that, the Bears officially clinched their first NFC North championship since 2018 and the Packers officially locked themselves into the NFC’s No. 7 seed regardless of what happens in Week 18.

Ravens RB Derrick Henry – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Dan Powers

While their win in Charlotte over the Panthers helped the Bucs, the Seahawks also got plenty out of the victory themselves. They got to 13-3, retained the No. 1 seed in the NFC and kept control of their destiny for both the NFC West title and the No. 1 seed. More on that later.

The Eagles survived a late comeback attempt by the Bills on Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park, holding on for a 13-12 win. With that, the defending Super Bowl champions improved to 11-5 and put some pressure on the Bears in the race for the No. 2 seed ahead of Chicago’s Sunday night game against the 49ers at Levi’s Stadium.

And what a game that turned out to be. Chicago and San Francisco went blow for blow all night until a last-second pass from Caleb Williams fell incomplete in the end zone and allowed the 49ers to escape with a 42-38 win. With that, the 49ers set up a winner-take-the-NFC West and winner-take-the-No. 1 seed in the NFC contest with the Seahawks next Saturday night in Santa Clara.

Meanwhile, Chicago now needs to beat Detroit in Week 18 to hold onto the No. 2 seed in the NFC. Additionally, with the Seahawks and 49ers winning, the Rams were officially eliminated from NFC West contention. And with the Rams losing to the Falcons on Monday night, they fell a full game behind the 49ers for the No. 5 seed. They now need a Week 18 win over the Cardinals and a 49ers loss to the Seahawks on Saturday night in order to clinch the No. 5 seed.

NFC Standings Through Week 17

1. Seattle Seahawks – 13-3 (clinched playoff spot)
2. Chicago Bears – 11-5 (clinched NFC North, CHI has head-to-head tiebreaker over PHI)
3. Philadelphia Eagles – 11-5 (clinched NFC East)
4. Carolina Panthers – 8-8
5. San Francisco 49ers – 12-4 (clinched playoff spot, SF has division record tiebreaker over LA)
6. Los Angeles Rams – 11-5 (clinched playoff spot)
7. Green Bay Packers – 9-6-1 (clinched NFC’s No. 7 seed)

———- IN THE HUNT ———-
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 7-9