The Bucs knew they hadn’t accomplished much of anything in getting to 5-1 and sitting atop the NFC standings through six weeks of the 2025 season. Head coach Todd Bowles said as much after the team beat the 49ers, 30-19, at home in Week 6.

“[It] validates that we are 5-1,” Bowles said. “We feel like we have been building this roster for a couple years right now with the injuries. It is week-to-week in this league, you can [go] from the penthouse to the outhouse and we [have] to understand that.”

The Bucs were in the penthouse heading into Week 7 and while they aren’t quite in the outhouse heading into Week 8, their 24-9 loss to the Lions on Monday Night Football saw them plummet in the NFC playoff picture. 

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay went from being the NFC’s top seed a week ago all the way down to the No. 4 seed with Monday night’s loss. The Packers beat the Cardinals, the 49ers beat the Falcons and the Eagles beat the Vikings on Sunday, shaking up the standings through seven weeks. Ironically, if the season ended right now, the No. 5 seed Lions would be headed to Tampa to face the No. 4 seed Bucs at Raymond James Stadium in the NFC Wild Card Round.

NFC Standings Through Week 7

1. Green Bay Packers – 4-1-1 
2. San Francisco 49ers – 5-2 (holds win percentage vs. conference opponents tiebreaker over Eagles and Bucs)
3. Philadelphia Eagles – 5-2 (holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Bucs)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 5-2
5. Detroit Lions – 5-2 (holds win percentage vs. conference opponents tiebreaker over Rams)
6. Seattle Seahawks – 5-2 (holds win percentage vs. conference opponents tiebreaker over Rams)
7. Los Angeles Rams –5-2

The Bucs’ loss also loosened their grip on the NFC South lead, though the team breathing down their necks isn’t the one you’d probably think of first and foremost. After all, the Falcons followed up their big Monday Night Football win over the Bills with a disappointing 20-10 loss to the 49ers on Sunday Night Football in Week 7. So, Atlanta finds itself at 3-3 and remains 1.5 games behind Tampa Bay for first place in the NFC South.

The Saints, who are the Bucs’ next opponents, lost another one on Sunday, losing 26-14 to the Bears to fall to 1-6 on the year.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles and Panthers HC Dave Canales – Photo by: USA Today

So, neither the Falcons nor the Saints picked up any ground on the Bucs. But one of the league’s biggest surprises in recent weeks, the Carolina Panthers, did. With their 13-6 win over the Jets, they got to 4-3 and now sit just one game back of the NFC South lead. The Panthers have now won three straight games after a 1-3 start find themselves on the outskirts of the NFC Wild Card picture and right there behind the Bucs in the division race.

The road ahead for Carolina is a tough one, though. Josh Allen and the Bills come to town in Week 8, then the Panthers go to Lambeau Field to take on the NFC-leading Packers in Week 9. Add in the news that starting quarterback Bryce Young is dealing with a high ankle sprain and veteran backup Andy Dalton may be under center for the next couple (or next few weeks) and there’s a chance that Dave Canales’ team has a short stay in second place.

Back to the Bucs, though. The key after Monday night’s loss to the Lions is to not let things spiral and bleed into Week 8. While the Superdome can be a tough place to play no matter the Saints’ record, this is a winnable game for Todd Bowles and Co., and it’s one they really can’t afford to lose given its significance in the division race.

A win not only gets Tampa Bay to 6-2 ahead of its bye week, but it also gives the team a 2-0 record in NFC South play. Every win in divisional play matters, and you can’t afford to drop ones that you’re supposed to be winning.

NFC South Standings Through Week 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 5-2 (1-0 in NFC South)
Carolina Panthers – 4-3 (1-0 in NFC South)
Atlanta Falcons – 3-3 (0-2 in NFC South)
New Orleans Saints – 1-6 (0-0 in NFC South)