Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The 3-4 Bucs are coming off three straight losses to the Lions, Falcons and Bills and the team’s struggle to score points continues. The 3-4 Texans were upset on the road by the Panthers, 15-13, last week and have lost two out of the last three games.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Tampa Bay desperately needs a win to halt a three-game losing skid. The Bucs are half a game out of first place in the NFC South and can’t risk falling back even further in the division. Tampa Bay’s offense just hasn’t made many strides when it comes to running the ball and scoring points, especially touchdowns. The Bucs rank tied for 27th in the league with Atlanta, averaging just 17.3 points per game.

Bucs OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

That’s just under the 18.2 points per game Tampa Bay scored with offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich and quarterback Tom Brady last year. The ground game – or lack thereof – continues to be an issue in Tampa Bay. The team’s rushing attack ranks 30th in the league, averaging 77.9 yards per game after ranking dead last in the NFL in 2022 with a 75.6-yard average per game. As a result the Bucs have become a pass-first team, which plays to the offense’s strengths, which are pass protection and wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

The only problem is that it puts more pressure on Baker Mayfield to play great and he’s struggled to do that and put points on the board as a result. Tampa Bay has scored just six points, 13 points and 18 points in the last three games, which has not been nearly enough – although the points are trending slightly upward. The biggest problem is in the red zone, where the Bucs have just three touchdowns in three games.

Tampa Bay’s defense is struggling to put pressure on quarterbacks and pick them off. The Bucs have just six sacks and one interception – by defensive lineman Will Gholston – in the last three games. That’s not good enough, especially with an offense on the other side of the ball that is having difficulty scoring touchdowns.

What’s At Stake For The Texans

Texans QB CJ Stroud and WR Nico Collins – Photo by: USA Today

The Texans seemed to hit a home run out of the gate in the 2023 NFL Draft with the back-to-back selections of quarterback C.J. Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson Jr. with the second and third overall picks. Stroud has played the best of any drafted quarterback this year with nine touchdowns and only one interception through the first seven games. The only problem is that the Texans are 3-4 on the year, including two close losses to Atlanta (21-19) and Carolina (15-13). Both Stroud and Anderson need to bring their “A” game on Sunday.

Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary need to get the Texans’ ground game going. The Texans have yet to rip off a run of 20 yards or more, and the lack of a strong running game is putting too much pressure on Stroud to win games. In a lot of ways, the Texans and the Bucs are similar in that both teams struggle to score points offensively and rely on the defense to keep opponents out of the end zone. Both Houston and Tampa Bay are tied for sixth in scoring defense, allowing 18.3 points per game.

The AFC is a much stronger conference than the NFC as it features nine teams with winning records compared to the five NFC teams that are currently above .500. Both the Texans and the Bucs look at this Sunday’s contest as a winnable game. Getting back to .500 gives Houston a chance to make a run at the playoffs in the second half of the season. A loss to Tampa Bay could send Houston spiraling at 3-5.

The Bucs Win If…

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Somehow, some way, the Bucs need to put the ball in the end zone. Tampa Bay has not won a game since Week 4, when the offense scored a season-high 26 points and scored three touchdowns – all inside the red zone. Since the bye week, points have been at a premium, as the Bucs offense has averaged just 12.3 points per game. The Texans’ offense isn’t lighting it up, either. So expect a 16-13 game like the Bucs had a week ago versus Atlanta or a 15-13 game like the Texans had last week at Carolina. Whatever the score, Tampa Bay needs more points than Houston.

On defense, the Bucs need to stop the run and then get after rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. The Texans aren’t great at running the ball, ranking 23rd in the league due to a 91.9-yards per game average. That puts more pressure on Stroud, who hasn’t passed for 200 yards in a game since his 249-yard day against Atlanta in Week 5. Stroud has been sacked 19 times and the Bucs need more pressure on him in the way of sacks or QB hits that force errant passes.

The Bucs also need to play smarter football. After starting the season playing more disciplined football, Tampa Bay is now in the Top 5 in terms of penalties. Too many false starts, holding penalties and illegal formation penalties stop drives before they even start. Head coach Todd Bowles needs to implore his team to stop committing self-inflicted wounds if it has any chance of winning.

The Texans Win If…

Texans QB CJ Stroud – Photo by: USA Today

Quarterback C.J. Stroud needs to continue to protect the football. With only one interception, he’s done a remarkable job in that area as a rookie. Just as important, the Texans receivers need to step up and win their one-on-ones on the outside and make big plays down the field. It’s been four weeks since Stroud has passed for 250 yards or more, and Houston’s offense needs a big-play element to put touchdowns on the board early and force Tampa Bay to play from behind, where the team usually struggles.

Houston’s pass rush needs to have a big game and force Baker Mayfield into sacks and turnovers. When the Bucs lose the turnover battle, they typically lose the game. The only problem is that the Texans only have four interceptions on the season with right cornerback Steven Nelson having three of them and linebacker Blake Cashman having the other. Nelson will need to contain Mike Evans, who typically lines up to the left away from the tight end as the split end.

This is a game between two teams that rarely turn the ball over. The Bucs are tied with the second-fewest turnovers with six in seven games, while the Texans have four, which is the fewest in the NFL. Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans said the Texans lost last week because they had one turnover and the Panthers did not.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs vs. Texans DE Jonathan Greenard

Texans DE Jonathan Greenard and Panthers QB Bryce Young – Photo by: USA Today

Tristan Wirfs has made a seamless transition moving from right tackle to left tackle this season while maintaining Pro Bowl-caliber play. Wirfs’ only real issue is that he’s not 100%. He suffered a deep thigh bruise in the first quarter of the team’s loss at Buffalo last Thursday night and if he plays on Sunday, he won’t be at full strength. It will be interesting to see if Wirfs practices this week, and if so, how limited he’ll be.

Jonathan Greenard had eight sacks for Houston two years ago, but injuries limited him to just eight games last year where he only had 1.5 sacks and a pick-six. He’s back with a vengeance this year, leading the Texans with six sacks, including 2.5 last week in a 15-13 loss at Carolina. That was Greenard’s second multi-sack game of the year, also notching a pair of QB captures against Pittsburgh.

Greenard plays hard and physical every down. He’s limited athletically, but the 6-foot-3, 263-pounder makes up for it with power and aggressive play. That could cause problems for an injured Wirfs, or Justin Skule at left tackle if Wirfs can’t go.

When he’s not sacking the quarterback Greenard is applying pressure. He has 25 QB pressures on the year, which is second on the team behind first-round draft pick Will Anderson Jr., who has 27 pressures to go along with one sack. Greenard plays almost exclusively on the right side, going up against left tackles, while Anderson faces right tackles nearly every down as Houston’s left defensive end.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs CBs Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis III vs. Texans WRs Nico Collins and Tank Dell

Bucs CBs Carlton Davis III and Jamel Dean – Photo by: USA Today

The Texans’ starting wide receiver duo features two players with contrasting play styles. Veteran Nico Collins is a big, 6-foot-4, 215-pound receiver that wins with physicality and brute force. Rookie Tank Dell is one of the league’s smaller receivers at 5-foot-8, 165 pounds, but is lightning quick off the snap.

Collins leads Houston with 33 catches for 577 yards (17.5 avg.) and three touchdowns. Dell is second on the team with 32 receptions for 340 yards (15.5 avg.) and two TDs. Both have one catch over 50 yards, and Dell’s lack of size, which is nearly on par with Tampa Bay’s Deven Thompkins, makes him a difficult matchup for taller cornerbacks.

Carlton Davis III and Jamel Dean don’t have any interceptions through the first seven games of the season and often don’t play tight man or zone coverage. Instead, Davis and Dean give a fair amount of cushion in zone coverage to limit big plays down the field, but the result is a combined six pass breakups, which is not nearly enough.

Dean and Davis need to play much tighter coverage in Houston and trust their technique to stay with Collins and Dell. Bucs defensive tackle Will Gholston has one interception this season, which is more than any of the team’s starting defensive backs. That’s embarrassing, and it’s time for Dean or Davis – or both – to create a takeaway against the Texans.