Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The 3-5 Bucs are coming off four straight losses to the Lions, Falcons, Bills and Texans and while the offense came to life last week, the defense had its worst performance of the year, allowing 39 points. The 3-5 Titans, who have turned to rookie QB Will Levis for the rest of the year, have lost three out of four games and are winless on the road this year.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay is facing a downward spiral with another loss. The Bucs are already in desperation mode, mired in a four-game losing streak thanks to last week’s stunning defeat in Houston, 39-37. Tampa Bay blew a 10-point lead and wasted the best offensive performance of the year with a complete collapse of Todd Bowles’ defense. The pass rush was ineffective and the coverage was absolutely terrible.

Normally reliable cornerback Carlton Davis III gave up three touchdowns, including the game-winner with six seconds left as quarterback C.J. Stroud set an NFL rookie record with 470 passing yards and five touchdowns. Bowles didn’t help matters by calling predictable Cover 2 and Quarters coverages on the final drive, as Stroud carved up the secondary.

One more loss and there is a real chance that Bowles loses the locker room, as a 3-6 Bucs team would all but be out of contention for the NFC South title and possibly a Wild Card playoff berth. The Bucs have lost two winnable games already in the past month – at home versus a Falcons team that was 3-3 at the time, and on the road against a 3-4 Texans team that was coming off a loss to a winless Panthers team the week prior. They cannot afford to lose to another rookie quarterback for morale’s sake.

What’s At Stake For The Titans

Titans QB Will Levis – Photo by: USA Today

The Titans are 1-3 in their last four games and have yet to win a game on the road this year, where they are 0-4. Tennessee announced that rookie quarterback Will Levis, the team’s second-round pick, will start the remaining games this season. He’s 1-1 as a starter after filling in for the injured Ryan Tannehill. Levis threw four touchdowns in a win over Atlanta in his first start, but threw a game-clinching interception in last week’s loss at Pittsburgh.

The Titans will have a few extra days to rest and prepare for the Bucs with that loss to the Steelers happening on Thursday night.

After four winning seasons from 2018-2021, head coach Mike Vrabel is starting to feel a little bit of heat. The Titans are 3-5 this season and finished last year 7-10. Tennessee has parted ways with a few of their better players over the last two seasons, trading wide receiver AJ Brown to Philadelphia last year and safety Kevin Byard to the Eagles just two weeks ago. That hasn’t helped Vrabel’s cause.

If the Titans are going to make a push for the playoffs, they need a win against the Bucs. And for Levis, if he’s going to show that he can be the answer for the Titans long term, it wouldn’t hurt for him to record another win against a sub-par NFC South opponent like Tampa Bay – and get Tennessee’s first road win of the year in the process.

The Bucs Win If…

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay’s defense has largely worn the superhero cape this year while Dave Canales’ new offense has struggled to find consistency and score points. But last Sunday was different, as the defense turned in an absolutely embarrassing performance and got destroyed by a rookie quarterback. This happening while the Bucs offense suddenly sprang to life and scored a season-high 37 points, including a go-ahead touchdown with less than a minute left.

The Bucs as a team have to bounce back from such a stunning loss, especially the defensive players. They can’t let Houston beat them twice by having another terrible outing on Sunday against Tennessee.

Todd Bowles has to play more man coverage on the outside and let Zyon McCollum and Carlton Davis III do what they do best. The Bucs have struggled mightily in zone coverage and can’t let rookie quarterback Will Levis get into an early rhythm by finding easy throws against soft zone coverage. Not one member of Tampa Bay’s starting secondary has recorded an interception this season, and that has to change.

The Bucs will need to get back to forcing more takeaways on defense. Pressuring Levis and winning one-on-ones against Tennessee’s sub-par pass protection unit up front will be key.

Offensively, the Bucs need to do more of the same from a week ago, namely scoring a bunch of points, including touchdowns in the red zone. Rachaad White has gone over 100 total yards for the second game in a row and that trend needs to continue. Baker Mayfield now has back-to-back games with two touchdowns and no interceptions. That too has to continue. But Canales needs to do a better job of force-feeding the ball to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who haven’t gotten nearly enough targets in recent weeks.

The Titans Win If…

Titans OLB Harold Landry – Photo by: USA Today

Tennessee is one of the worst pass-protecting units in football, allowing 29 sacks in eight games. Rookie quarterback Will Levis is getting sacked an average of three times per game, and it’s stymieing some of the Titans’ scoring opportunities. Levis will need to gain some inspiration from watching C.J. Stroud carve up the Bucs’ coverages last week and take notes. He’s not as savvy as Stroud is, but he has a cannon for an arm and can push the ball anywhere on the field he wants.

Receivers DeAndre Hopkins, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and tight ends Josh Whyle Chigoziem Okonkwo need to step for the rookie QB.

Of course, a big day from Derrick Henry and rookie Tyjae Spears would also help take some of the pressure off Levis. Tennessee’s ground game is one of the best in the league, but Tampa Bay’s defense has proven to be formidable against the run. If Henry and Spears get going, it could be a really long day for the Bucs defense. Conversely, if Tampa Bay’s defense stuffs the run, it forces Levis to beat the Bucs.

Defensively, the Titans pass rush is quite good with several defenders who can get to the QB, starting with defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons, who has 4.5 sacks this year. Defensive lineman Denico Autry leads the unit with five sacks and edge rushers Harold Landry and Arden Key have combined for six QB captures. Pressuring Baker Mayfield into mistakes will be key for Tennessee, and the defense needs to force Tampa Bay’s offense into being one-dimensional by shutting down the run, which most teams have had success doing against the Bucs this year.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs Gs Aaron Stinnie and Cody Mauch vs. Titans DT Jeffery Simmons

Titans DT Jeffery Simmons – Photo by: USA Today

Aaron Stinnie has improved the play at left guard over the injured Matt Feiler. But Stinnie is no world-beater and not an ideal game-in, game-out starter. He’s better in the run game than he is in pass protection and will have his hands full against Jeffery Simmons, one of the best pass rushing defensive tackles in the game today. Simmons has 25.5 sacks in 4.5 years in Tennessee, including 4.5 this season. He’s on his way to eclipsing his personal best of 8.5 sacks from the 2021 season after recording 7.5 sacks last season.

At 6-foot-4, 305 pounds, Simmons can win with quickness and suddenness off the snap or brute force as he’s incredibly strong. He’s hard to move in the running game because of his power and ability to anchor at the point of attack, but where he’s the most deadly is in pass rush situations. Simmons also has the ability to play either left or right defensive tackle, so he’ll face both Stinnie and Mauch on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium.

Mauch has surrendered five sacks and 19 pressures this season – both are team highs. That’s to be expected to a degree, as he’s a rookie right guard after playing left tackle at FCS school North Dakota State. Mauch and Stinnie will have their hands full against Simmons, who is a game-wrecker up front. Stinnie has yet to give up a sack and has allowed only three pressures in two starts, but that could change on Sunday when going up against Simmons, a two-time Pro Bowler.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka vs. Titans LT Andre Dillard

Titans LT Andre Dillard – Photo by: USA Today

If Tampa Bay pass rusher Joe Tryon-Shoyinka doesn’t have success this week against Titans left tackle Andre Dillard it would be a bad look. An incredibly bad look. Dillard has surrendered a team-high 34 pressures, nine quarterback hits and eight sacks (per Pro Football Focus) this year.

That’s an average of four pressures and one sack per game. Combine that with a rookie quarterback in Will Levis, who will probably hold on to the ball a tick more because of his inexperience, and it should equal a big day from the Bucs’ athletic edge rusher.

But Tryon-Shoyinka has struggled to assert himself as a down-in, down-out passing rush threat for the Bucs throughout his career, and has not lived up to his first-round draft billing. In his third season in Tampa Bay, Tryon-Shoyinka has stalled out at three sacks and hasn’t recorded a quarterback capture in the last three games. He’s had back-to-back four-sack seasons in his first two years with the Bucs.

What’s even more troubling for Tryon-Shoyinka is that he only has 15 QB pressures this year, including those three sacks. That’s less than two per game. Shaq Barrett leads the Bucs with 24 pressures and is tied with Tryon-Shoyinka with three sacks. But Barrett has 16 hurries to Tryon-Shoyinka’s nine, and five QB hits to Tryon-Shoyinka’s three.

What’s damning is that defensive tackle Calijah Kancey, who has played in almost four fewer games due to a calf injury, has 14 QB pressures, including two sacks, three QB hits and nine hurries. Nearly four fewer games and just as much production as JTS.