Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and OLBs coach Larry Foote – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ 2-Point Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game.

Tampa Bay beat San Francisco, 30-19, in Week 6 to stand alone atop the NFC with a 5-1 record. The Bucs have now won back-to-back games against NFC powerhouse teams due to more incredible play from quarterback Baker Mayfield, who has to be leading NFL MVP candidate, as well as Todd Bowles defense. The defense came alive with six sacks and two interceptions as cornerback Jamel Dean returned to the lineup and made a big impact.

2 BIG STATEMENTS


STATEMENT 1. Bucs, Todd Bowles Get Revenge vs. 49ers

This has been a long time coming.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles was certainly pleased to beat the 49ers and out-duel his nemesis Kyle Shanahan more than he let on in his post-game press conference.

“[They are] a very good football team,” Bowles said. “Every year is different; we have gotten close, so they have had our number in the past. Today we collected together, and we came out with a win, so it feels good.”

Bucs DT Vita Vea and 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

San Francisco beat Tampa Bay, 35-7, in Bowles’ first year as head coach in 2022 and then again in 2023, 27-14. Last year the two teams met again, this time at Raymond James Stadium, with the 49ers kicking a last-second field goal to prevail, 23-20.

For Bowles, finally getting a victory over Shanahan has to feel great. His defense had problems stopping the Seahawks in Seattle last week, surrendering five touchdowns. But against San Francisco, Tampa Bay’s defense allowed just 19 points, recorded a season-high six sacks and collected two more interceptions on the year.

Christian McCaffrey was held to just 3.2 yards per carry and a touchdown on the ground, and barely topped 100 yards (54 yards rushing, 57 yards receiving). He wasn’t the Buc killer he had been in years past.

“The number one thing on our list to stop was the YAC yards by No. 23 because he can catch the ball and he can hurt you in so many ways,” Bowles said. “We knew he was going to catch the check downs, but we needed to have him bracketed inside and out. I thought those guys did a great job of limiting the yards after catch.”

This was a really big win for the Bucs, who had lost three straight games to the 49ers, as Tampa Bay moves into sole possession of first place in the NFC with a 5-1 record. Getting head-to-win wins over the Seahawks and 49ers in back-to-back weeks will serve this team well come playoff-seeding time in January.

“I also haven’t ever beat the Niners – no matter what team I was on, starting in 2018,” Mayfield said. “That’s a big one. Guys doing their job and doing it well. And that’s what Coach Bowles talked about last night is we need everybody to step up and do their role and do it at a high level and I think everybody did that.”

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

And this was a monumental win for Bowles, who just surpassed his mentor, Bruce Arians, on the all-time Tampa Bay victory list. Bowles now has 32 career wins and ranks fourth all-time behind Jon Gruden (57), Tony Dungy (54) and John McKay (44). Getting nine victories in the remaining 11 games, which is certainly possible, will put Bowles in third place behind Dungy and Gruden.

Bowles needs just 25 more victories to surpass Gruden and become the franchise’s all-time winningest coach. He has a legitimate chance of doing that during the 2027 if everything goes according to plan.

One more division championship would break the tie between Bowles and Gruden for the most NFC South titles in Tampa Bay history, which is three. Bowles has accomplished that feat in each of his first three seasons, whereas it took Gruden seven years to win three division championships.

With a 5-1 record, Bowles is also in the legitimate conversation for NFL Coach of the Year honors, as he should be. Not only is his defense playing much better than it was a year ago, but his steadfast leadership has not allowed this team to panic despite a plethora of damning injuries to start the season. Throw in the fact that Bowles has been a kingmaker when it comes to finding great offensive coordinators – Josh Grizzard being the latest, and the third in as many years – and he deserves all the praise that is coming his way.

Wouldn’t it be something if Bowles took that title and Baker Mayfield wound up winning NFL MVP honors this year, too?

And right on cue, Bowles pumped the brakes on any pats on the back after Week 6. This is a long season with 11 more games to go.

Bowles was quick to essentially remind everyone that the Bucs haven’t made the playoffs, nor have they won a fourth straight NFC South title just yet.

“[It] validates that we are 5-1,” Bowles said. “We feel like we have been building this roster for a couple years right now with the injuries. It is week-to-week in this league, you can [go] from the penthouse to the outhouse and we [have] to understand that.”

But understand that this win was big for Bowles and the Bucs. Congrats on a job well done, Todd.


STATEMENT 2. Bucs Wide Receiver Depth Is Crazy

The Bucs lost a close game to the 49ers last year, 23-20. Quarterback Baker Mayfield was without top wide receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan. Mayfield completed 18-of-29 passes for just 116 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions.

The reason his passing day against San Francisco was subdued last year? Mayfield’s receiving corps that day consisted of Sterling Shepard, Ryan Miller, Rakim Jarrett and Trey Palmer. Shepard had one catch for 17 yards. Jarrett had two receptions for 10 yards. Miller had one catch for 11 yards and Palmer had zero receptions and was targeted just once.

Oh my, what a difference a year makes.

Jarrett and Palmer are gone – not good enough to make the roster this year. And Miller barely played on offense in Sunday’s 30-19 win over San Francisco. Shepard is having a far better – and healthier – season in his second year in Tampa Bay. He had two catches for 51 yards, including a season-long 36-yarder in the second half.

Bucs WR Tez Johnson – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Kameron Johnson, who battled through an oft-injured rookie season as an undrafted free agent, had a career day with a team-high 64 yards and a touchdown, catching all four of his targets. Rookie Tez Johnson, the team’s seventh-round pick this year, had his first NFL touchdown catch on a 45-yard bomb in the second half.

Despite star rookie Emeka Egbuka, the team’s first-round draft pick, leaving the game early after just two catches for 24 yards due to a hamstring injury, Mayfield completed 17-of-23 passes for 256 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions.

Tampa Bay’s receiving corps is crazy deep this season. Mayfield and the Bucs beat the 49ers without the team’s top four receivers – Evans, Godwin, McMillan and Egbuka (although Egbuka is having the best season statistically by far).

“Tez and Kam really stepped up tonight,” Bowles said. “[They] came into their own. The talent was always there, just understanding the offense more, those guys can play. We feel like we are very deep in that room, [we] cannot afford to lose any more, but we feel like we are very deep in that room, and I thought those two guys did a hell of a job tonight.”

Don’t look now, but undrafted free agent Garrett Greene, a former college quarterback at West Virginia, is also lurking on the practice squad and impressing the Bucs’ brass each week. It would be nice if Tampa Bay’s depth at wide receiver wouldn’t be tested like this with a slew of injuries at the position. But it’s nice to know that Jason Licht and Co. has the receiver position stocked better than other team in the NFL.

The Bucs learned a lesson in last year’s 49ers game where the lack of talent and depth at wide receiver wasn’t good enough to beat San Francisco. That certainly wasn’t the case this year.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. Is The Bucs’ Improved Pass Rush Here To Stay?

We’ll find out next week in Detroit if the Bucs’ pass rush has turned a corner or not. Tampa Bay didn’t record a single sack at Seattle, but came alive with six sacks in Sunday’s win versus San Francisco. Todd Bowles’ unit now has 16 sacks on the season, and only five times have more – led by Denver’s 30. That puts Tampa Bay on pace to finish with 45 sacks right now, averaging 2.6 sacks per game.

Outside linebacker Yaya Diaby had two sacks on Sunday and leads the team with three this year. Inside linebacker Lavonte David picked up another sack to have 2.5 on the year, which is tied with Vita Vea’s 2.5, as the big defensive tackle shared a sack with rookie defensive tackle Elijah Roberts. Outside linebacker Haason Reddick and defensive tackle C.J. Brewer shared a sack, and cornerback Jamel Dean even got in on the action on Sunday with his first career sack.

Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby and 49ers QB Mac Jones – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

“That was Dean’s first sack that I have seen in my career and that was probably the best play that I can say next to Mike Evans getting 1,000 yards last year that I have ever seen,” Bowles said with a smile after the game. “That goes down in history for me.”

Per NextGen Stats through Week 6 (with four teams left to play), the Bucs are third in the NFL in total pressures (101), second in pressure rate (43.2%), tied for sixth in sacks (16) and rank 13th in sack rate (6.8%). These are all very good metrics. So anyone that doesn’t think Tampa Bay’s pass rush is very good just doesn’t get it.

No team is going to be on its game every week. The other team gets paid, too. Bowles and outside linebackers coach and co-defensive coordinator Larry Foote challenged the D-line and edge rushers to get off the ball and apply more pressure this week. Message received.

“I think they did a good job tonight,” Bowles said. “We talked about it all week, getting more pressure and challenging [those] guys to get more pressure and work together a lot more. They really started the game off right. They got off the ball the whole night. Credit to them, they did a heck of a job.”

QUESTION 2. Just How Good Is The Bucs Offense?

We truly don’t have idea. The maximum potential for Tampa Bay’s offense is currently unknown due to a slew of injuries that saw Josh Grizzard’s crew without three starting-caliber receivers in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan, starting running back Bucky Irving, starting right guard Cody Mauch and starting right tackle Luke Goedeke.

Now star rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka is also hurt with a hamstring, and starting right guard Luke Haggard suffered a shoulder injury on Sunday. Thankfully all but Mauch are expected to return this season.

Yet credit Grizzard for having to navigate all these injuries and put up 38 points in last week’s win at Seattle and then drop another 30 on San Francisco despite being without half of the starters on offense. A remarkable job through the first six weeks of the season as the offense is averaging 27.5 points per game, which ranks sixth in the league. That’s about what I expected at the start of the season – but that was without the rash of injuries that has ravaged Tampa Bay’s offense.

Bucs OC Josh Grizzard – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Coming into this season without any play-calling experience, I expected Grizzard’s rookie year as an offensive coordinator to fall somewhere in between Dave Canales in 2023 at 20.5 points per game, and what Liam Coen did last year with a loaded Bucs team averaging just under 30 points per game.

However, factoring in all of the injuries he’s had to deal with along the offensive line, at wide receiver and even the injury to Irving, who has missed two games and might miss as many as two more, the job that Grizzard is doing is even more impressive than what Coen was able to do last year. And Coen had two years worth of play-calling experience in the SEC at Kentucky to draw from.

If the Bucs offense can get healthy – and stay healthy – just imagine what it can do at full strength? Grizzard and the offense have arrived at the 30-point level in back-to-back weeks. When the cavalry comes later this season we just might see Tampa Bay’s offense evolve into the best in the NFL.

And of course that means Grizzard would logically emerge as a hot head coaching candidate around the league for the 2026 offseason.

Nobody wants to hear that, but it’s the truth.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1. Bucs Finish With At Least 11 Wins This Year

Tampa Bay is all alone atop the NFC right now with a 5-1 record. I predicted a 4-2 record for the team right now with an expected loss to Philadelphia, but also a loss at Seattle before an expected win over San Francisco. So in my mind, the Bucs are playing with a little bit of house money right now with 11 more games to go.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch P/R

I had predicted 11 wins for the Buccaneers this season – a one-win improvement over the team’s 10-7 record last year. But now I think Tampa Bay’s ceiling might be a bit higher. I had the Bucs losing at Detroit on Monday Night Football before winning at New Orleans to head into the bye week with a 5-3 record. This team should beat the Saints, and I’m not ruling out a win over the 4-2 Lions, who got thrashed in Kansas City on Sunday Night Football, 30-17. At worst I see Tampa Bay heading into the bye week 6-2 and at best the team would be 7-1.

If the Bucs are 7-1 at the bye week I think there is a very real chance that Todd Bowles and Co. could finish 7-2 down the stretch. That would set a new franchise record for the most wins in franchise history, topping the 13-4 record from the 2021 season. That record would likely come with the first seed in the NFC playoff picture, which means homefield advantage throughout the postseason. So somewhere between 11-14 wins seems very realistic given this team’s current trajectory.

PREDICTION 2. Mike Evans Returns For Monday Night Football

This is just my prediction and my opinion – and not based on any inside information regarding the health status of Mike Evans. I just have a gut feeling that with Emeka Egbuka likely out for a week or more with Sunday’s hamstring injury and Chris Godwin Jr.’s fibula keeping him out at least another week that the chance that Evans to return for a huge Monday Night Football game at Detroit increases.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

That’s not necessarily wishful thinking on my part, either. It very well could happen. The Bucs did not put Evans on injured reserve after he injured his hamstring during the Jets game for a reason. He would have automatically missed four games. Well, the Lions game next week will be game number four since Evans got hurt, so it makes sense that he could return to action for that one. He missed three games with a worse hamstring injury last year, so we’ll see if he returns to practice on Wednesday.

With the Detroit game being on Monday Night Football, the extra day of rest only helps Evans. He’s an ultra competitors, so Evans is going to want to play against the Lions, which is another top team in the NFC. Cross your fingers – and hope I’m right that Evans joins Sterling Shepard, Tez Johnson and Kam Johnson in Detroit.