SR’s Fab 5 is a collection of reporting and analysis on the Bucs from yours truly, Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds. Here are four things that caught my attention this week, plus some random tidbits in my Buc Shots section at the end. Enjoy!

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FAB 1. Todd Bowles Needs A BIG Year With Bucs In 2023

In last week’s SR’s Fab 5 column, I talked about how Jason Licht needs his best ever draft for the Bucs this year since he took over as the team’s general manager in 2014. As Tampa Bay’s head coach, Todd Bowles will have a huge hand in that as well.

In fact, for Bowles, he’ll need a huge draft and a huge year to remain as Tampa Bay’s head coach in 2024. No, I’m not putting Bowles on the hot seat, but others are.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

In fact, Bowles’ name is a regular on the “coaches on the hot seat for 2023” stories this offseason by Bleacher Report, Yahoo!, and The 33rd Team among others. Bowles joins a list that includes Los Angeles’ Brandon Staley, Las Vegas’ Josh McDaniels, Dallas’ Mike McCarthy, New Orleans’ Dennis Allen and Cleveland’s Kevin Stefanski.

According to SportsBetting.ag, Bowles is the longest of longshots to win NFL Coach of the Year honors. With 75-1 odds, Bowles ranks dead last among all NFL coaches for the award. Denver’s Sean Payton is the current favorite with 7-1 odds.

New Orleans’ Dennis Allen is fourth on the list at 12-1 odds, and he has the highest odds of any coach on an NFC South team. In case you’re curious, Carolina’s Frank Reich is seventh at 20-1, while Atlanta’s Arthur Smith is ninth at 12-1.

In other words, Todd Bowles should be a dead man walking in Tampa Bay, right?

Well, just don’t tell Bowles that. Bowles has a quiet confidence about him – and a plan for improving the Bucs in 2023.

The outside noise doesn’t rattle him. Bowles has been a head coach for five years in the league now, and an NFL coach in some capacity since 2000. He knows it’s the win-loss column that matters – not the Sunday columns in the newspapers (or the stories online these days).

Bucs QB Tom Brady and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Last year’s 8-9 record sticks in the craw of Bucs fans. At 9-8, the Bucs are winners – but barely. At 8-9, they are losers – legitimately.

Did the 30-17 loss in Week 18 at Atlanta really shift things for Bucs fans? Probably.

Remember, Tampa Bay was up 17-10 at halftime and then Bowles pulled Tom Brady and the starters after halftime and Atlanta went on a 20-0 run to end the game. While it was a meaningless game at the time because the Bucs had already won the NFC South and secured a home playoff game, for optics it meant the difference between winning and losing in Bowles’ first season.

Believe it or not, that loss may help Bowles in 2023. The Glazers – and Bucs fans – want to see progress from Bowles’ team this year. He went 8-9 and still won the NFC South.

So technically, a 9-8 season (or better) would be considered progress. Of course, going at least 9-8 and winning the NFC South again would be even better.

The Glazers have given every head coach they’ve hired at least two seasons to prove they can win. Greg Schiano (11-21) lasted just two years as did his successor, Lovie Smith (8-24), who was even worse. Both Raheem Morris and Dirk Koetter lasted three years because they had a winning season during their tenure.

For Morris, it was a 10-6 season in 2010 in between 3-13 and 4-12 records. For Koetter, it was a 9-7 season in his first year in Tampa Bay in 2016, followed by a pair of disappointing 5-11 records. Neither coach made the playoffs.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Bowles did a lot of things right in 2022. His side of the ball – the Bucs defense – held opponents to 21 points or less in 10 games last year. In the modern day NFL, that’s good enough to win with, evidenced by a 7-3 record in those games. Out of the Bucs’ eight wins last year, the defense came up huge in them in seven of them.

No, he didn’t fire offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, who was exposed as a fraud with lesser talent to work with – given the retirements of Ali Marpet and Rob Gronkowski, the season-long injury of Ryan Jensen and the exodus of Antonio Brown at the end of the 2021 campaign. That’s because Bowles couldn’t fire Leftwich. That was a provision that Bruce Arians put in place for Bowles in exchange for him getting promoted.

There was a point in the season when Bowles wanted to fire Leftwich, but there wasn’t any good alternative on the staff to promote to offensive coordinator. So for the anti-Bowles crowd that knocks him for not firing Leftwich in-season, just understand that whoever would have been tapped for calling plays would have likely been replaced this offseason. Why would Bowles want to be on his second offensive coordinator in two years?

Not a good look. And that was part of the reason why Bowles wound up being fired in New York. He went through three offensive coordinators in four years with the Jets. Bowles put up with Leftwich, gambled on his defense – and Tom Brady – to win the NFC South, and ultimately won with that approach.

Throw in the fact that Bowles swept the Saints, which is a rare feat, and finally beat the Rams and won the NFC South with a 4-2 record despite Leftwich’s ineptitude and there were a couple of good moments in Bowles’ disappointing 8-9 season.

Bucs DC Todd Bowles and CB Jamel Dean – Photo by: USA Today

So for Bowles, the magic number for job security in 2023 might be nine wins. The team is already off to a good start with a very successful start to free agency. After last year’s 8-9 record, getting at least one more win might be attainable.

Consider that the Bucs play the Bears (3-14), Texans (3-13-1), Colts (4-12-1), Titans (7-10) and Aaron Rodgers-less Packers (8-9), plus the Panthers (7-10), Falcons (7-10), Saints (7-10) and there is the opportunity for nine wins right there. Will the Lions (9-8) and Jaguars (9-8) be as formidable this year?

I’m just saying that the schedule this year looks more manageable than last year’s on the surface. Of course, 10 or more wins would be even better for Bowles in the eyes of the Glazers and the fans.

With such low expectations from around the NFL community, who knows? Maybe Bowles wins the NFL Coach of the Year award if he can reach double digit wins and deliver a third-straight NFC South championship to Tampa Bay.

FAB 2. Todd Bowles To Visit K-State Pro Day Next Week

As some of you may know, I went to Kansas State University and my alma mater has had an amazing year in athletics. K-State won the Big XII in football, knocking off previously unbeaten TCU in overtime in the championship game, 31-28, thanks to an epic goal line stand that Todd Bowles would have appreciated.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

K-State basketball is on an incredible run, too. After being picked dead last in the Big XII, first-year head coach Jerome Tang inherited a roster that had just two remaining players – 5-foot-7 All-American point guard Markquis Nowell and Ish Masoud – and recruited 10 more dudes. Nowell just set an NCAA tournament record with 19 assists to go along with 20 points in a Sweet 16 win over the Michigan State on Thursday night.

The end result was a win over in-state rival Kansas and a third-place finish in the rugged Big XII standing this year. Not to mention a win over Kentucky to get to the Sweet 16 and a thrilling, overtime victory on Thursday night over Michigan State to get to the Elite Eight. Not bad for a team that was counted out before the season began.

My point? Don’t count out Bowles and the Bucs for a similar turnaround in Tampa Bay this season.

I’m not saying it’s going to happen. I don’t know if Bowles will make better decisions on the sidelines on game days. I’m not sure if Kyle Trask will pan out. I don’t know if Baker Mayfield will revive his career with the Bucs. And I’m not sure if Dave Canales will succeed as a first-year offensive coordinator.

But let’s just let it play out in the fall first before writing off Bowles, Canales, Mayfield, Trask – and the Bucs – in the spring.

One additional – more relevant – note about K-State and Bowles. The Wildcats’ pro day is next Friday, March 31, and Bowles will be there. In fact, he will be in Manhattan, Kansas, as the guest speaker at the K-State coaches clinic after the Wildcats pro day.

Bowles rarely goes to pro days, although he did visit Georgia last year to see Bulldogs safety Lewis Cine, who was almost drafted by the Bucs in the first round. Instead, Cine was drafted by the Vikings one spot ahead of the Bucs, who selected Houston defensive tackle Logan Hall with the next pick.

Kansas State OLB Felix Anudike-Uzomah – Photo by: USA Today

After a 10-win season last year, K-State’s football team is sending four draftable prospects to the NFL – all of which could help Bowles and the Bucs. No, I don’t campaign for just any Wildcats to come to Tampa Bay. Just the ones that could help.

The headliner on March 31 will be edge rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah, who is expected to be a late first-round or early second-round pick. Anudike-Uzomah (pronounced ann-you-DEE-kay you-ZAH-mah) is a 6-foot-3, 255-pound outside linebacker who racked up 25.5 tackles for loss, 19.5 sacks and a safety as a two-year starter, in addition to forcing eight fumbles.

Anudike-Uzomah racked up 11 sacks and six forced fumbles in 2021 as a first-team All-Big XII defender, and then followed that up with 8.5 sacks and two forced fumbles last year as the Big XII Defensive Player of the Year despite constantly facing double-teams. The Bucs had a formal meeting with him at the NFL Scouting Combine and are high on him.

Don’t rule him out as Tampa Bay’s first pick. With Shaq Barrett turning 30 this year and coming off a torn Achilles tendon, there is some concern about whether he’ll bounce back in 2023 or not. And with former first-round pick Joe Tryon-Shoyinka plateaued at four sacks in each of his first two years in Tampa Bay, the Bucs need to add another speedy edge rusher who can get to the quarterback.

Cornerback Julius Brents, who starred at the Senior Bowl and the NFL Scouting Combine, is another Wildcat who could interest Bowles. At 6-foot-3, 195 pounds, Brents is a pterodactyl with 34-inch arms and almost an 83-inch wingspan. Brents’ 11-foot-6-inch was the best for cornerbacks at the Combine, as was his 6.63 short shuttle and 41.5-inch vertical.

Kansas State CB Julius Brents – Photo by: USA TODAY Sports

While he is an ascending cornerback who had four interceptions last year and a forced fumble, Brents is not a finished product yet. His testing and potential could push him into the second round, but Brents’ film ideally makes him a third-round pick. That’s where the Bucs drafted Jamel Dean four years ago.

Running back Deuce Vaughn was one of the most exciting players in college football over the last three years. Vaughn had back-to-back years with at least 1,400 yards rushing and totaled 3,604 yards with 34 touchdowns while averaging 5.5 yards per carry.

Vaughn is also a tremendous receiver out of the backfield with a pair of 40-catch seasons totaling 1,280 yards and nine TDs, while averaging 11 yards per catch. But at 5-foot-5, 179 pounds, there just isn’t a track record for success for a running back that small. He’s likely a Day 3 pick as a result.

K-State legend Darren Sproles was slightly bigger at 5-foot-6, 187 pounds when he entered the league. But Sproles returned punts and kicks for the Wildcats and wound up returning seven punts and two kickoffs for touchdowns in the NFL.

That special teams ability helped Sproles stick in the league for 14 years, where he racked up 19,696 all-purpose yards (offense and special teams), which ranks fifth in NFL history. Vaughn didn’t return kicks or punts at K-State, and that will hurt his stock as a late-round prospect.

Malik Knowles, who is a Day 3/undrafted free agent receiver, handled kick returns for the Wildcats over the last four years. The 6-foot-2, 200-pounder averaged 27.7 yards per kick return and returned three for touchdowns. Knowles also caught 127 passes for 1,867 yards (14.7 avg.) and 14 TDs, including 48 catches for 725 yards (15.1 avg.) and two scores last year.

K-State RB Deuce Vaughn and WR-KR Malik Knowles – Photo by: USA Today

He was deadly on end arounds, using his 4.4 speed to run for 164 yards and three TDs on eight carries (20.5 avg.). Knowles would be an ideal sixth- or seventh-round pick for the Bucs and can give Tampa Bay’s kick return game a boost as he develops as a receiver.

Tampa Bay has only drafted half a dozen K-Staters in franchise history. The last of which was quarterback Josh Freeman in 2009, and the best of which was kicker Martin “Automatica” Gramatica in 1999. We’ll see if Bowles likes any of this year’s crop of ‘Cats when he visits Manhappiness next Friday.

If any of these guys played for rival Kansas, I would be just as complimentary about them. Whether they were Wildcats or Jayhawks, these players can play and any of them would be an asset to Tampa Bay. Apparently Bowles feels the same way.

FAB 3. Todd Bowles Will Let Dave Canales Run The Show On Offense

Some of the criticism that Todd Bowles endured last year was that he didn’t do enough to fix the Bucs’ disappointing offense, which struggled to score points, run the ball, convert third downs and convert inside the red zone. I’ve already explained why Bowles couldn’t fire offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich early on and didn’t want to fire him later during the season.

Former Bucs OC Byron Leftwich and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

But couldn’t have Bowles done more as a head coach to help Leftwich?

Bowles tried, but ultimately that’s not his job, nor is it his area of expertise. Bowles is a defensive-minded head coach and has been the defensive play-caller in Tampa Bay since 2019. When he looks at offensive game film, his inclination is to dissect how to defend it and stop the play from having success – not necessarily make it work successfully.

Fixing the offense is the offensive coordinator’s job and the job of the offensive assistants. Outside of making some suggestions about how they could tweak things, Bowles let Leftwich and the offensive assistants do their job. Ultimately, they failed and Leftwich, receivers coach Kevin Garver and running backs coach Todd McNair were fired.

Quarterbacks coach Clyde Christensen decided to retire. Had he not, he would have been fired, too.

When Bowles hired offensive coordinator Dave Canales, he made it clear that Canales would have complete autonomy over the offense – from hiring new assistants to formulating the playbook he wanted to use. The Bucs offense is in Canales’ hands, and that’s the way Bowles wants it.

Bowles’ coaching style is very similar to that of Jon Gruden, who gave defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin complete authority to run the defense while Gruden focused on Tampa Bay’s offense as the play-caller. Even former Bucs head coach Bruce Arians left Bowles alone to run the defense while he focused primarily on assisting Leftwich and the offense during his three-year run in Tampa Bay.

Bucs OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Letting Canales, who has no play-calling experience and no experience as an offensive coordinator, have complete autonomy is quite a gamble for a coach who may enter the 2023 season on the hot seat. But Bowles has faith in Canales to do his job and do it well.

Every play-caller – whether it’s Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay or Zac Taylor – had to start somewhere calling plays for the first time. If Canales succeeds, Bowles will look like a genius.

If Canales struggles, then he’ll have to figure it out and lean on his offensive assistants to find ways to make improvements. As the head coach, Bowles is responsible for the entire team’s success – offensively and defensively. But Bowles won’t be there to swoop in and save the day if Canales fails.

That’s not Bowles’ job. He’s not the offensive coordinator and he has the defense to worry about. Bowles just has to trust that he made the right hire with Canales.

FAB 4. Bucs Fans Give Their Todd Bowles’ Job Approval Ratings

Pewter Report put up a poll to gauge the level of satisfaction Bucs fans have with the job head coach Todd Bowles has done so far. The results were interesting, yet not unexpected.

Only 4% of the nearly 1,200 respondents thought Bowles did a great job in his first year, in which Tampa Bay won the NFC South for a second straight year despite having a losing record. Just over 29% of Bucs fans polled thought Bowles did a good job, acknowledging that he won the division, but noting the team’s 8-9 finish.

Just a combined one-third of Tampa Bay fans felt satisfied with the job Bowles did in 2022.

The biggest contingency of respondents said that Bowles had not done a good job so far. A total of 53% of Bucs fans voted that way.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Nearly 13% of fans think Bowles has done a horrible job and want him fired. Combine that with the 53% of the fans that don’t feel like he’s done a good job and that’s two-thirds of the respondents to the poll.

There’s no doubt that Bowles has some work to do to win over the Bucs fan base in 2023. Another division title plus a winning record would go a long way, and at least advancing past the first round of the playoffs would change public opinion.

Moreover, Bowles probably has to have his hiring of offensive coordinator Dave Canales validated by scoring more points than the 18 that the Bucs averaged last year. And if either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask proves that they are the right QB to succeed Tom Brady, Bowles will certainly get credit for that, too.

While the Bucs fan base has always appreciated good defense, it was spoiled by the prolific offense that Bruce Arians brought to Tampa Bay. Fans got used to seeing 30 points per game and were shellshocked last year in Brady’s final season when Byron Leftwich’s offense came undone.

A popular head coach like Arians is a tough act to follow. Anything less than a 13-4 season in 2022, especially with Brady still under center, was going to be a disappointment.

It will be interesting to see if Bowles can help the Bucs’ win total and points per game output rise in his second season as head coach. If so, his popularity among the fan base should rise as well.

FAB 5. SR’s Buc Shots

• BAKER MAYFIELD’S CONTRACT DETAILS: Fox Sports’ Greg Auman has the full details on new Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield’s contract.

• WILL THE BUCS GET A COMPENSATORY DRAFT PICK NEXT YEAR? Compensatory draft pick analyst Nick Korte believes the Bucs could possibly get an extra draft pick in 2024.

THIS WEEK’S PEWTER REPORT PODCASTS

• BUCS FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS ON THE PEWTER REPORT PODCAST: The Pewter Report Podcast is energized by CELSIUS and broadcasts four live episodes each week. We’re in the offseason now, so PR Podcasts will typically be featured on Mondays and Tuesdays at 4:00 p.m. ET and Wednesdays and Thursdays at 7:00 p.m. ET. Subscribe to PewterReportTV on YouTube and click on notifications and you’ll be informed about when the next podcast will be broadcast.

Matt Matera and Scott Reynolds reacted to Baker Mayfield’s initial press conference in Tampa Bay on Monday.

Matera and Reynolds discussed how Baker Mayfield fits into Tampa Bay’s new Bucs offense on Tuesday.

Matera talked about how the Bucs running game will change in 2023 under new offensive coordinator Dave Canales on Wednesday.

On Thursday, Matera and Adam Slivon analyzed Lavonte David’s press conference, Ryan Succop’s release and QB3 options for Tampa Bay.

Watch the Pewter Report Podcasts live on our PewterReportTV channel on YouTube.com and please subscribe (it’s free) and add your comments. We archive all Pewter Report Podcasts. So, you can watch the recorded episodes if you missed them live.

There is no better time to listen to or watch a new Pewter Report Podcast – energized by CELSIUS – than Friday afternoon on the way home from work. Or early Saturday morning during your workout or while running errands.

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