Welcome to SR’s Fab 5 – my weekly insider column on the Bucs that features five things that are on my mind. SR’s Fab 5 is now a quicker read, but still packs a punch. Enjoy!

FAB 1. Bucs Have Their Head Coach In 2024 After Todd Bowles’ Brilliance

Has Todd Bowles won you over yet?

It took a while to get a suddenly young 2023 Bucs team full of rookies and newcomers, and a rookie play-caller, to come together and improve enough to win six of the last seven games. Tampa Bay won another NFC South title and then a Wild Card playoff game against Philadelphia en route to a 10-8 record so far this season. And the team did so with nearly $80 million in dead cap money.

The last two wins for Bowles were the most critical, as they delivered a winning season and another division championship in Week 18, and a crucial home playoff win that featured a masterpiece of a game plan that held the Eagles to just nine points.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

At the end of November, it certainly looked bleak when the team was 4-7 after losing six of seven games. But Bowles and his staff deserve a ton of credit for not panicking and getting the team to play better, limit mistakes and for the players to start gaining necessary experience from wins rather than losses.

“Well, the thing about him – something you might’ve heard me say in the past – Todd… in the middle of our year, it was definitely a rough spot there, but the unique thing about Todd is he’s the same guy when we won [four] in a row as he is when we lost six [out of seven],” Bucs co-defensive coordinator and defensive line coach Kacy Rodgers said. “He’s the same guy – he’s never too high, he’s never too low, and always stays positive and keeps coaching.

“That’s very unique because I’ve worked with some guys who would be losing it if you lost two or three in a row, and then one guy will be sky high if you win three in a row. But he’s the same guy every day, so that makes him unique. And it keeps everybody calm, especially these young players here. He kept them calm and kept working them and things turned around.”

Some Bucs fans have been slow to come around to liking or accepting Bowles. Perhaps it’s the scars from his failed all-out blitz versus Matthew Stafford and the Rams in the 2021 NFC Divisional Playoffs.

Maybe they choose to blame Bowles entirely for the team’s 8-9 record and “wasting” Tom Brady’s final season – rather than blame the poor job of offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, whom Bowles fired at the end of the season. Or even recognize that Brady was simply not himself while going through a painful and public divorce during the 2022 season.

Perhaps it was blowing the Houston game by allowing C.J. Stroud to set a rookie passing record and allowing the Texans to win the game with a come-from-behind touchdown with six seconds left during the team’s 4-7 start?

Whatever the reasoning, it was perfectly okay to doubt Bowles during those moments. After all, he does have a 17-17 record in the regular season and a 1-1 record in the postseason in his two years since replacing Bruce Arians as the team’s head coach.

Bruce Arians and Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

But understand that Arians was 7-9 in his first season in Tampa Bay in 2019, and when the team was 7-5 at the bye week in 2020, Arians had an overall record of 14-14 as the Bucs head coach at that juncture. Then Tampa Bay won eight games in row – the last four regular season games and all four postseason games, including Super Bowl LV.

You might remember Bowles and his defense absolutely dominating Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in a 31-9 win, holding Kansas City’s vaunted offense out of the end zone all night. That game was an absolute masterpiece for Bowles. And he served up another one against Philadelphia in the playoff win on Monday night, proving he’s still got it as a defensive mastermind.

During the team’s strong finish to the 2023 season, Bowles is proving he’s got it as a head coach, too. Another division title, a winning record and a blowout playoff win guarantees that Bowles will be back as the captain of the Bucs’ ship in 2024 – and deservedly so.

And because Bowles will stay, so will offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who is a bright, young play-caller. More on Canales in Fab 3, but first let’s look at the one aspect of Bowles’ growth as a head coach that should renew your confidence in him.

FAB 2. Todd Bowles Has Gotten Remarkably Better With Personnel Usage

It took a while, but Todd Bowles made the necessary growth in depth chart management this season. Over his first season and a half, Bowles was reluctant – and perhaps too stubborn – to make some unavoidable changes to the starting lineup. And some of that reluctance led to some losses.

In 2022, Bowles was too slow to pull then-rookie Luke Goedeke from the starting lineup at left guard despite him struggling mightily through the first seven games of the season. It’s one thing to give a young player a trial-by-fire situation to gain the necessary playing experience to improve. It’s another to leave a rookie in the fire too long to where both he and the team get burned.

Bucs ILB K.J. Britt and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Football is a team sport, and the Bucs didn’t lose back-to-back games at Pittsburgh and at Carolina because of Goedeke. But he played poorly in those games and because he lost a good deal of his one-on-one blocks, the offense stalled. Tampa Bay scored just 18 points against the Steelers and three points against the Panthers before Goedeke was benched against the Ravens the following week.

This year, a similar situation brewed at strong safety where Ryan Neal struggled mightily in coverage. Neal gave up a 56-yard touchdown in the third quarter to Jameson Williams in the loss to the Lions, and then allowed Kyle Pitts to haul in a big catch on the final drive against Atlanta to put the Falcons in position to win with a field goal.

Neal also allowed a touchdown to Buffalo tight end Dalton Kincaid the next week and took a poor angle on Noah Brown’s 75-yard touchdown the following game at Houston. Neal should have been benched after the Falcons game, but Bowles waited too long to insert Dee Delaney and rookie Kaevon Merriweather into the lineup.

Bowles has also had a blind spot for inside linebacker Devin White and has failed to bench him for inconsistent play, and at times poor effort, particularly over the last two seasons. It took White being sidelined with a foot injury and seeing K.J. Britt and J.J. Russell provide steadier, better play to coerce Bowles into finally making a change.

Britt and White have since shared the starting middle linebacker role, depending on the packages they’re deployed in. When it’s a run-heavy package, such as the six-man defensive line that Bowles used to stop the Eagles ground game with four defensive tackles, Britt was used over White, who was mainly in nickel defense against Philadelphia.

Britt wound up out-snapping White 33-26 in the playoff win over the Eagles. A smart move by Bowles, who surely knows by now that the front office will not be re-signing White in the offseason. So might as well get Britt even more experience in preparation for 2024.

Bucs CB Carlton Davis III and DB Zyon McCollum – Photo by: USA Today

When both starting cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Jamel Dean were healthy enough to return to the starting lineup against the Eagles in the playoffs, Bowles made sure that his best cornerback – Zyon McCollum – wasn’t on the bench as a result. In a surprise move that caught the Eagles off guard, Bowles used McCollum as a free safety, strong safety and nickel cornerback to put more speed and athleticism on the field.

It worked as the Eagles’ passing game struggled outside of DeVonta Smith going over 100 yards. But even when Smith had a breakaway catch-and-run across the middle, it was McCollum and his 4.3 speed who tracked him down and prevented a touchdown.

“The six down linemen helped, I guess,” Bowles said about his personnel deployment against Philadelphia. “It might have deterred some things. Zyon moving around from nickel to safety, to corner, to not really knowing what he is – kind an enigma right now – and we just have to make sure we don’t confuse him. I think that helps in coverage when we’re trying to play a little more man, because now we have our three best cover guys out there. Other than that, the guys … we’re letting our elephants be elephants and our giraffes be giraffes – meaning our blitzers blitz, and our cover guys cover.”

Over the second half of the season, Bowles has made all the right moves with regards to personnel usage, and it’s paid off in winning six of the last seven games. It’s been a huge step in the right direction for Bowles and an encouraging sign of his growth as a head coach.

FAB 3. Bucs Have Their Offensive Coordinator And QB Set For 2024

The Bucs have their head coach already set with Todd Bowles in 2024. And the fact that Bowles will be sticking around after back-to-back division championships and a Wild Card playoff win means that up-and-coming offensive coordinator Dave Canales will, too.

Sure, Canales got an interview for the head coaching position with Carolina on Thursday. He may very well get another interview if his offense puts up enough points to beat the Lions in Detroit on Sunday, too. But I believe he’ll stick with the Bucs for at least one more year to get some more experience as a play-caller and some extra seasoning as an offensive coordinator.

Lions OC Ben Johnson – Photo by: USA Today

That’s the route that Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson took last year, turning down some interviews and even some serious interest from other teams that wanted to hire him as a head coach. Johnson wanted another year working under head coach Dan Campbell, and to finish what he started with quarterback Jared Goff and the Lions offense this year. It’s paid off, as Detroit improved from 9-8 and just missing the playoffs in 2022 to 12-5 this year and the franchise’s first NFC North division title – and first playoff win since 1991.

I can see Canales taking a similar approach like the one Johnson did. It’s one thing to be a play-caller on game day and another to have to manage the entire game in terms of replays, clock management, fourth down strategy, etc. Leading a team’s offense is one thing. Leading an entire team is another.

I have no doubt that Canales, who has superb communication skills, enthusiasm, positivity and charisma, will be an excellent head coach one day. But I believe it won’t be anywhere in 2024.

Instead, Canales and Bowles will be back together to build upon the success at the end of the 2023 season and be an even better team offensively and defensively in 2024. And because both Bowles and Canales will return next year, so will quarterback Baker Mayfield, who is slated to be a free agent after signing a one-year deal with Tampa Bay in 2023.

Over the last seven games, in which the Bucs have won six, Tampa Bay has averaged 26 points per game. That’s five more points per game than the team has averaged this year over the course of the entire season, which is 21.1. The combination of Canales and Mayfield has averaged a field goal more per game than Byron Leftwich and Tom Brady averaged last year, which was 18 points per game.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

Mayfield has played for eight head coaches in six years in the NFL, which is absolutely nuts. The Browns’ No. 1 overall pick in 2018 has suited up for Hue Jackson, Gregg Williams, Freddie Kitchens and Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland; Matt Rhule and Steve Wilks in Carolina; Sean McVay in Los Angeles; and Bowles in Tampa Bay.

That is not a recipe for success, but Mayfield finally found success in Tampa Bay this season under Bowles and Canales. Mayfield had a career year in 2023 with career highs with 4,044 yards passing and 28 touchdowns, along with just 10 interceptions. Having a stud duo at wide receiver with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin has certainly helped.

Getting Mayfield to re-sign – and both sides want to get it done – will make things easier for Jason Licht and the Bucs’ front office this offseason. Finding a new quarterback for the future in the draft is now more of a luxury than a necessity.

The Bucs won’t be forced to have to draft one in the first round with Mayfield back – or perhaps reach for a quarterback in an early round, as backup Kyle Trask is also under contract for one more year. Tampa Bay could decide to wait until 2025 to even draft a possible successor to Mayfield, who turns 29 in April.

Continuity is king in the NFL, and the fact that Bowles, Canales and Mayfield are set to return could set the table for an even better season in Tampa Bay in 2024.

FAB 4. Dave Canales Would Be A Great Successor To Todd Bowles In Time

The Green Bay Packers have set the ideal standard when it comes to the succession plan at quarterback in the NFL.

The San Francisco 49ers had one Hall of Fame quarterback replace another one when Steve Young succeeded Joe Montana in the 1990s. But the Packers have taken that to a whole new level and become the envy of the league with Hall of Famer Brett Favre paving the way for future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers, who handed the reins to former first-round pick Jordan Love.

Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales and head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Thanks to superb play by Love in his first season replacing Rodgers, Green Bay made the playoffs and knocked off Dallas in the first round.

The only thing better than a good succession plan at quarterback is a successful transition at head coach. That’s what the hope was for the Bucs when Bruce Arians retired and handed the job to his defensive coordinator, Todd Bowles. New England is hoping that Jerod Mayo can restore the glory to the Patriots by succeeding his mentor, Bill Belichick.

The Bucs know they have a gem in 42-year old offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and in a perfect world, he would be an ideal replacement for Bowles whenever the head coach decides to retire. Bowles turned 60 this year and we’ve seen some successful head coaches step away still in their prime before.

Former Bucs head coach Tony Dungy retired in 2008 at the age of 53 after leading the Colts to a 12-4 record, finishing with a 139-69 record between Tampa Bay and Indianapolis (.668). Bill Cowher retired at the age of 49 after 15 years in Pittsburgh, finishing with a 149-90-1 record (.623).

Bowles is not just the head coach like Arians, his predecessor, was. He also serves as Tampa Bay’s defensive coordinator and play-caller, which can be even more taxing for an older coach.

“It gets me in a lot earlier, I can tell you that much,” Bowles said of doing double duty for the Bucs. “I used to be a 5:30 [a.m.] guy and I migrated to a 4:30 [a.m.] guy and now I’m like a 3:20 [a.m.] guy. You get a lot of work done in the mornings. I still love that part of it – I still enjoy it very much. It’s getting tiring. I’m getting old – I don’t have that many years left in this league. I still enjoy it.”

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and offensive coordinator Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Arians coached until he was 69 before retiring after Tampa Bay’s 2021 season. That’s not in Bowles’ plan.

“I’m not going to make 70,” Bowles said with a laugh. “I can tell you that right now! I guarantee you I’m not making 70!”

Part of the reason why the Bucs have had continued success, winning a Super Bowl and three straight NFC South championships, including back-to-back division titles with Bowles as head coach, is due to continuity. Tampa Bay’s defensive system has been in place since 2019 when Bowles arrived, and he’s helped hand-pick players for his scheme ever since.

General manager Jason Licht and the Bucs’ front office scouts already know exactly what a Bowles-type edge rusher, linebacker, defensive tackle and defensive back look like. A new head coach with a new staff and new systems on offense and defense could mean that it takes the front office a while to learn and get used to the types of players to draft.

Want to know why teams like Baltimore, Kansas City, San Francisco, Buffalo, Seattle – and Tampa Bay – usually draft pretty well? Continuity – in terms of the offensive and defensive systems that are already in place.

That’s why it would be ideal if Canales succeeded Bowles. By the time that happens, Licht and the front office would have an even better idea of what types of offensive players would best fit Canales’ system.

Bucs OC Dave Canales and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

For Canales, it would be a smooth transition to head coaching as his quarterback would already be in place, and the offense would have several years of experience in his scheme.

Even if Baker Mayfield is re-signed this offseason, the Bucs will probably draft another quarterback this year or next who could be his eventual successor in time. That young QB would also be schooled up for years by Canales, who got the best out of Russell Wilson in Seattle and groomed Geno Smith to be his replacement.

A successful Mayfield handing the offense over to a young successor in time would be just as ideal as Bowles eventually turning the team over to Canales in a few years. The only problem is that Bowles may not want to retire any time soon, and Canales might not want to wait for the possibility of a succession plan to occur.

Sooner rather than later, Canales is going to be a head coach in the NFL – and likely a successful one. But it might be wishful thinking to believe it happens in Tampa Bay.

FAB 5. If The Bucs Beat The Lions … Look Out

“It’s a revenge tour,” Bucs inside linebacker Devin White said after Tampa Bay destroyed Philadelphia, 32-9, in last week’s Wild Card win. “Everybody in this locker room, we believe in one another and that’s all that matters. People are going to talk on TV, they’re going to make their predictions. But at the end of the day, the ball has to be placed and we have to go out there and play. What people say doesn’t determine the outcome, no matter how [great] of an analysis they are or whatever; that doesn’t determine anything. They have to line up.”

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

The Lions have to line up to play the Bucs again after beating them in Tampa, 20-6, back in Week 6.

As the Eagles found out last week in a 32-9 loss at Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round, beating the Buccaneers a second time is easier said than done.

In that earlier loss to Detroit, the Bucs defense played reasonably well, holding the Lions offense to 10 points under its season average, which was 30 points per game at the time. Tampa Bay’s new offense was still in its infancy, though.

Running back Rachaad White was held to 26 yards on seven carries and caught only three passes for 12 yards. Baker Mayfield had his worst QB rating (56.8) of the entire season, as he completed just 19-of-37 passes for 206 yards with no touchdowns and an interception.

The Bucs are a different – and better – team than the Lions faced back in October.

Detroit began the season 8-3 and has won five of its last seven games, including Sunday’s 24-23 playoff win over the Los Angeles Rams. Tampa Bay began the season 4-7, but has won six of its last seven games, including Monday against Philadelphia.

Both teams have momentum on their side, and Sunday’s Divisional game should be closer than the first meeting back in Week 6 – no matter who wins.

Imagine what happens if Tampa Bay, a 6.5-point underdog, pulls off the upset and beats Detroit?

Bucs OLB YaYa Diaby and 49ers QB Brock Purdy – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs’ “revenge tour” could very well continue the next week in San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game. The 49ers beat the Bucs, 27-14, back in Week 11 at Levi’s Stadium.

Or the Bucs could actually host the NFC Championship Game at Raymond James Stadium if there are a pair of upsets within the NFC and Tampa Bay wins at Detroit and Green Bay wins at San Francisco. The Bucs beat the Packers in Green Bay back in Week 15, 34-20.

It’s incredibly hard to beat an opponent twice in the same year. The Bucs have only done it once this year, sweeping the Panthers. Tampa Bay split with New Orleans and Atlanta within the division, and also with Philadelphia after beating the Eagles in the rematch in the playoffs.

Detroit only swept one opponent in 2023, which was Minnesota in Weeks 16 and 18. The Lions split their series with the Bears and Packers, and will now face the Bucs for a second time this season.

Let’s go way out on the limb and suppose Tampa Bay wins its next two games and actually makes it to the Super Bowl. The Bucs’ revenge tour could extend to the NFL’s final game of the season.

Tampa Bay lost at Buffalo, 24-18, in Week 8, and at Houston, 39-37, in Week 9 in narrow defeats this season. The other two AFC teams, Baltimore and Kansas City, beat the Bucs last year in Tampa. The Bucs could get some delayed revenge against either of those teams as well.