INTRO: It doesn’t get any bigger than Sunday’s game for the Bucs, who have lost two of their last three games – and two of their best players in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. If Atlanta wins, the Falcons have a 4-0 record in the NFC South and will be in the driver’s seat to win the division. If Tampa Bay can pull the upset at home and get a hard-fought victory, the Bucs will be 5-3 and their season will be far from over.

Sunday’s outcome can have a long-lasting effect on not just the Buccaneers – but also head coach Todd Bowles moving forward, as I point out in this week’s SR’s Fab 5. Enjoy!

FAB 1. This Is A VERY Big Game For Todd Bowles And The Bucs

It’s early in the season – not quite to the halfway point – yet it feels like this is a must-win game for the Bucs against the Falcons.

With a probable loss looming at Kansas City next Monday night and a home game against a wounded, yet a very formidable San Francisco team, losing against Atlanta could mean four straight losses heading into the bye week.

Should the Bucs lose to the Falcons, a 4-6 record heading into the bye week seems likely. Then, Tampa Bay would be in the unenviable position of having to go on another Herculean run down the stretch like it did last year when the team turned a 4-7 start into a 9-8 finish.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The problem is that nine wins may not be enough to win the NFC South this year. And it might not be enough to get into the playoffs as a wild card. An Atlanta victory on Sunday puts the Falcons in the driver’s seat and could go a long way into snapping the Bucs’ three-year strangehold on the division.

Atlanta would have a 4-0 record in the NFC South and an important season sweep over Tampa Bay, while the Bucs would have 1-2 record in the division. Should Tampa Bay fail to win the division, the team might not qualify for the postseason given that all four teams in the NFC North currently have winning records. The NFC South might not produce a Wild Card team.

Head coach Todd Bowles currently has a 21-20 overall record in Tampa Bay in the regular season. With the Glazers and general manager Jason Licht expecting progress this year – I’ll define that as 10 wins in the regular season and/or advancing past the NFC Divisional round – could Bowles survive a losing season? Or would the Bucs be inclined to move on from him and perhaps promote offensive coordinator Liam Coen or look for a coaching overhaul if Bowles’ overall record dips below .500 with a losing season in 2024?

It would all depend on how many wins the Bucs wind up with and how they end the season.

Things looked bleak for Bowles last year when the team was 4-7, but to his credit, he rallied the troops and the Bucs went 5-1 down the stretch to win a third straight NFC South title. Can he rally the players again if Tampa Bay has a losing record coming out of the bye, or is this year’s Bucs squad simply too banged up to finish strong?

Believe it or not, the Bucs’ biggest problem right now isn’t necessarily playing without star receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. It’s Tampa Bay’s shoddy defense.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs are 28th in scoring defense (26 points per game), 31st in total defense (386 yards per game), 29th in passing defense (254 yards per game), 19th in rushing defense (132 yards per game). Tampa Bay has given up over 500 yards in two of the last three games – versus Atlanta and Baltimore.

“That’s what we’ve never been about,” Bucs co-defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers said. “The thing is we need to eliminate the mistakes. The mistakes we’re [making] are massive – it’s not a 15-yard [mistake], it’s a 51, it’s 80. We’re getting some major, major deals in situations. From a coaching perspective, you’re in some pretty good situations where you’re not executing. That’s where we have to get all cleaned up.”

With Liam Coen’s offense without its top two weapons, Bowles, Rodgers and co-defensive coordinator Larry Foote need to have the defense step up this week against the Falcons and perhaps hold them to 21 points or less in order to have a chance to win as points may be at a premium.

“Definitely – it’s a team game anyway,” Rodgers said. “We need more from the defense, week-in and week-out, regardless of who’s playing on offense. With both Mike and Chris out, having the offensive production that they’ve had, and not just relying on those two guys, the defense has to step up and play.”

We’ll see what happens on Sunday. Get your popcorn ready.

FAB 2. Todd Bowles’ Reputation Is On The Line vs. The Falcons

Todd Bowles’ defensive masterpiece against the Lions in the Bucs’ 20-16 win at Detroit back in Week 2 seems like ancient history, doesn’t it?

Since then, Bowles got out-coached by Sean Payton again – this time with Denver – in Week 3 and let rookie quarterback Bo Nix embarrass the Bucs in a 26-7 win at Tampa Bay. The Bucs bounced back the next week against Philadelphia in 33-16 win and the defense looked better.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles and Broncos HC Sean Payton – Photo by: USA Today

But keep in mind that the Eagles didn’t have either of their top two receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith – something the Bucs will have to contend with this week against the Falcons without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

While Philadelphia head coach Nick Sirianni wasn’t smart enough to realize that the blueprint that Payton laid out when beating Bowles defense, Atlanta offensive coordinator Zac Robinson was. Robinson and the Falcons rolled up 550 yards against the Bucs defense with Kirk Cousins setting an Atlanta passing record with 509 yards and four touchdowns in a 36-30 win in overtime.

Payton’s blueprint? Take advantage of the Bucs’ soft zone coverage and throw quick, short passes and screens that negate Tampa Bay’s pass rush. Nix wasn’t sacked in Week 3 and the Bucs only had 10 pressures, including two quarterback hits.

The Bucs were more successful in getting to Cousins in Week 5, sacking him four times, hitting him eight times and racking up a total of 25 pressures. But Cousins is such a pro who is used to making tough throws under fire it didn’t matter.

Drake London had 12 catches for 154 yards and a touchdown. Darnell Mooney had nine catches for 105 yards and two touchdowns. Tight end Kyle Pitts had seven catches for 88 yards. Even lesser weapons like KhaDarel Hodge had two catches for 67 yards and a score, while Ray-Ray McCloud III had six grabs for 66 yards.

Cousins carved up the middle of the field, just as Lamar Jackson did on Monday Night Football in Baltimore’s 41-31 win at Tampa Bay. The Bucs did a good job of shutting down Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers (one catch for 11 yards) and tight end Isaiah Likely (two catches for 17 yards), but tight end Mark Andrews had four catches for 41 yards and a pair of touchdowns, and running back Justice Hill had three receptions for 44 yards, including an 18-yard touchdown on a middle screen pass.

There is no doubt that the Falcons will try to do what worked offensively in Week 5. Can Bowles make the necessary adjustments and stop it?

Falcons QB Kirk Cousins – Photo by: USA Today

What worked the first time was the yards after catch. Of Atlanta’s 509 passing yards, the team had 229 yards after the catch, including KhaDarel Hodge’s 45-yard game-winner in overtime, which was a 5-yard catch that featured a 40-yard dash to the end zone once Zyon McCollum missed both the pass breakup attempt and the tackle.

“The thing is, the more and more we watch them play, they had a lot of carry over in the running game with the new regime from years past,” Bucs co-defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers said. “The thing you see now is in the passing game, it’s the yards after catch. They catch and run. A five-yard pass will become 18 and now those things just kill you. The thing is, they’re going to catch some balls, but we’ve got to be able to knock them down when they catch it. That’s kind of been our problem.”

The problem Bowles has is that he is the Bucs defensive play-caller, and his defense is pretty awful right now. If the defense does not get fixed and is a culprit for an underwhelming season, it may be tough for Bowles, who turns 61 in November, to return next year.

Should he right the ship on defense and figure out a way to slow down the Falcons and get a win on Sunday, it would work wonders for his reputation, which has taken a hit, and his job security past this year.

FAB 3. Bucs Inside Linebackers Are Letting The Team Down In Coverage

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles is in a quandary right now. His inside linebackers are not playing well in coverage.

Notice I said inside linebackers – plural. I’m not just talking about K.J. Britt, who is the worst-graded inside linebacker in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus.

Bucs ILBs K.J. Britt and Lavonte David – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR

I’m also talking about the legendary Lavonte David, who will turn 35 in January. Once one of the best coverage linebackers in the league, David is starting to show his age. No Bucs defender has given up more yardage in coverage than David this season.

According to Pro Football Focus, David has allowed 31 catches on 37 targets (83.8%) for 299 yards. That’s more yardage than outside cornerbacks Zyon McCollum (286 yards) and Jamel Dean (278 yards) have allowed. What’s worse is that David has missed tackles when he’s allowed 189 of those yards to be after the catch, primarily in zone coverage.

Britt has allowed 16 catches on 20 targets (80%) for 184 yards and a touchdown. Of that total, 114 of that yardage has been after the catch. Yet PFF also factors in blowing and missing assignments even when the ball doesn’t come a defender’s way. That’s why Britt has a team-low 37.6 coverage grade while David has a 56.1 coverage grade – which still isn’t very good.

The Bucs must find a way to get Britt off the field as he is an absolute liability in zone coverage. And Britt’s lack of ability to cover one-on-one has Bowles too hesitant to play too much man coverage, which typically allows defenders to play tighter against receivers and tight ends. Britt is handicapping the Bucs’ coverage options – and by keeping him on the field, Bowles is limiting his own options as a play-caller.

“The thing with K.J. – the NFL is a matchup league,” Bucs co-defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers said. “We’ve got to do a really good job of matching our people up accordingly. We know what he is as far as a run stopper and kind of what his role is. Then, we’ve got other people to do other jobs. We’ve got to keep cleaning him up and doing what he’s good at.”

Simply put, the Bucs are scared to death to match up Britt, who is stiff and not agile, in man coverage on Sunday against the likes of running backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier and tight end Kyle Pitts. So expect a lot of zone coverage if Britt is out there on obvious passing downs – and expect a repeat of what Kirk Cousins was able to do against Tampa Bay in Week 5 as a result.

Bucs ILB KJ Britt – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Who knew that SirVocea Dennis’ season-ending shoulder injury would be such a blow to this defense? Dennis was platooning with Britt on passing downs through the first three weeks of the season – and out-playing him.

Dennis finished the season with a 74.3 PFF coverage grade, which is the second-highest on the team behind only McCollum (83.2). Dennis allowed seven catches, but for only 53 yards with a long gain of only 11 yards.

So why not try platooning J.J. Russell with Britt? It couldn’t be any worse, right? Granted it’s a very small sample size, as Russell has only been on the field in coverage for 11 pass plays, but he’s only allowed two catches for five yards and has a PFF coverage grade of 66.5.

Bowles was too loyal for too long to Devin White and now he’s being too loyal for too long to Britt. It’s time to start platooning Russell in for Britt on third-and-long and obvious passing downs – before it’s too late.

“I totally have confidence in our linebackers and what they do and what we ask them to do,” Rodgers said.

Prove it by playing Russell. It can’t be any worse.

FAB 4. Liam Coen Has The Element Of Surprise As An Advantage

When it comes to game-planning against Tampa Bay’s offense, every NFL defensive coordinator starts with stopping Mike Evans or Chris Godwin first. And then it’s either Godwin or Evans second.

Without Evans for a few weeks and Godwin for the season, now it has to be stopping the Bucs’ suddenly effective running game.

Bucs OC Liam Coen – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Falcons play mostly Cover 3 and will have a safety – likely Justin Simmons – in the box with great regularity to load up and stop the run. How will Coen counter that and make Atlanta pay for playing mostly man coverage without Evans or Godwin?

It will be fascinating to see, but it really puts the pressure on Jalen McMillan, Trey Palmer and Sterling Shepard to win their one-on-ones this week.

“These guys are all going to have to win one-on-one matchups when it is man, they’re going to have to be at the right spot at the right time when it is zone and you know, it’s a big [opportunity] for these guys,” Coen said. “What that exactly looks like is really going to be determined on how they play, like how they’re playing in the game and what’s getting open based on the coverage structures we’re getting.”

The one thing that could be working in Coen’s advantage is that the Falcons have never had to game-plan against not having Evans and Godwin to cover before. Who will be Baker Mayfield’s top target with that dynamic duo out? Will it be Shepard, Palmer or McMillan? Or will it be tight end Cade Otton or Rachaad White out of the backfield?

The element of surprise may work in Coen’s favor early as he does have a creative mind, evidenced by the end-arounds, tight end screens and even a flea-flicker we’ve seen thus far.

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

“You’ve got to find a way to win – that’s part of it,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said. “You never know what you can do until you find out what you don’t have. Coach [Bill] Parcells always said that. Coaches have to do more and players have to do more and you’ve got to be more creative. So we’re putting our heads down to work and we’ll get it done.”

Coen’s job just got immensely harder without Evans and Godwin, especially with the Bucs facing a near must-win situation against a divisional foe like the Falcons.

“We expect everybody to step up in a big way, and you know, still leaning on our offensive line,” Coen said. “I thought they played great. Obviously the past few weeks, I think they’ve played really well, and our backs continued to play well. So it’s just going to be a full group effort. It’s going to look different, but that’s okay. You know what? It’ll be a little bit more and let’s have some fun with it.

“As we’re getting this gameplan going, you know looking at, obviously not having Mike and Chris, teams can’t exactly play to those tendencies when we’re game-planning [without] those guys. So it’ll look different, but everybody just has got to do their part. Everybody’s got to be dialed and next man up.”

FAB 5. Liam Coen Will Have To Get Creative, But Can’t Just Run The Pony Package

Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Liam Coen has done a great job of using all of the running backs at his disposal this year, and has even found a way of getting two backs on the field at the same time in what he dubs the Pony package. The Pony is a 21 personnel grouping, which means two backs and one tight end (and two receivers).

Yet Coen primarily deploys 11 personnel, which is one back, one tight end (and three receivers). But without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans he might be inclined to run less of that unit, right?

Not necessarily.

Bucs RB Sean Tucker – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Most of the Bucs offense is run out of 11 personnel and it’s been quite successful – obviously with Evans and Godwin doing most of the heavy lifting in the passing game. But Coen can’t just switch gears after six games and abandon a chunk of his playbook for something else – or even expand the Pony package, especially on a short week.

And without rookie Bucky Irving, who is sidelined with a toe injury, Coen is down to just two backs in Rachaad White, who had two receiving scores against Baltimore, and Sean Tucker. That might not be a bad thing, as Tucker only had six touches against the Ravens, yet led the team with a 5.8-yard average on five carries in addition to a 9-yard reception. Tucker will certainly see more action against Atlanta.

More Tucker might be more of a good thing for the Bucs offense.

The real challenge for Coen comes at receiver where he needs to get a young receiving corps that now consists of rookie Jalen McMillan and a trio of second-year receivers in Trey Palmer, Ryan Miller and possibly Rakim Jarrett – in addition to 30-year old veteran Sterling Shepard – up to speed quickly. The Bucs need McMillan, a third-round pick, to really step up in Godwin’s absence in the slot.

“Just getting on the same page and getting the routes down and understanding coverages a little better,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said about McMillan. “My message was, ‘Play like you did in college. Play just like you did in college.’ He was a great player in college. We think he’s a great player now – he just hasn’t had the experience yet.”

For Coen it’s a balancing act if putting in new wrinkles that can help the team manufacture some big plays in Evans and Godwin’s absence and getting more reps for the backup receivers in the regular offense because they are being called to step up.

“That’s something we’re looking at right now as a staff and how much we can put on these guys,” Coen said. “We’re on a semi-short week and everybody would love for us to just line up in ’21 Pony’ 50 snaps of the game, but that’s not realistic. So we need to be able to put as much on these players as we can without overloading them because we can’t have new players playing or put other guys in positions that they haven’t been playing and say, ‘Go play fast,’ on a short week. That’s not really realistic to do.

Bucs OC Liam Coen – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

“We’re trying to find the balance between the Trey Palmer, Shep, JMac, Ryan Miller, Rakim Jarrett – whatever it is. Those guys hopefully being able to play – they’ve been playing those positions a lot longer than Rachaad has been playing slot so how much of that will definitely determine what we do.”

There have been calls for using White, who is one of the best receiving backs in the league, as a slot receiver now that the offense is without Evans for a while and Godwin for the year. That may happen gradually, but it won’t happen overnight.

“We need our receivers to continue to develop,” Coen said. “But yeah I would say that’s something we have to continue to look at as a staff but that’s something that takes time – like it takes time to tell Rachaad or Bucky or whomever to go line up at receiver and go line up over here and go line up over there. That takes time to be able to do, so how much of that … we’ll see.”

The good news for the Bucs is that Coen is very intelligent and creative. And he’s spent two years in the SEC at Kentucky where he was often out-manned and out-gunned playing against defenses like Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Auburn and Tennessee that were often loaded with NFL talent. That forced Coen to have to try to beat those defenses with scheme and unconventional plays rather than talent.

Coen will need to lean on that experience against the Falcons and Tampa Bay’s upcoming opponents until Evans returns after the bye week.