The Bucs are the best of a bad bunch that is the NFC South currently. And the main reason Tampa Bay is leading a terrible pack is due to their defense. The offense has been substandard … no, deficient … no, atrocious … no, horrendous … no, well you get the point. And there is no shortage of reasons for the lackluster performance of a previously dominant unit.

Bucs head coach Bruce Arians and QB Tom Brady – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

But one area that has been of particular concern to Bucs fans has been the deep passing attack. The standard was set when former head coach Bruce Arians first arrived in Tampa Bay with his “no risk it, no biscuit” mantra. In 2019, former Bucs starting quarterback Jameis Winston attempted 99 passes of at least 20 air yards. They accounted for 15.8% of his throws that season. And those passes led to some pretty awesome results. Winston connected on 40 of those attempts (40.4% completion rate) for 1,351 yards and 13.6 yards per attempt. They also produced nine touchdowns to five interceptions.

In 2020 Arians and the Bucs upgraded at quarterback and brought Tom Brady in. Many wondered how Brady would adapt to such a caution-averse system that predicated itself on launching bombs, but Brady quickly showed that he was system-adaptable and started launching darts down the field.

In his first year with the Bucs, Brady matched Winston’s predilection to go deep by attempting 119 pass attempts of 20 air yards or more, which accounted for 15.9% of his passes that year. And while his completion percentage on those passes was a bit under that of Winton’s (37.8%), he was able to produce five additional completions over Winston thanks to the increase in volume. Those 45 completions resulted in 1,515 yards, 12.7 yards per attempt, 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

This year it feels like all of that has evaporated. Through Week 13, Brady has only attempted 58 passes of 20 air yards or more. That is just 10% of his total pass attempts on the year. And the conversion rate on those attempts is slightly down from that 2020 level at 34.5%. Yards per attempt has fallen on these deep shots down to 9.9 and Brady has produced just one touchdown on these passes (and no interceptions for what it’s worth). The numbers agree with the consensus opinion that Brady and the Bucs deep passing attack has not been clicking like it once was.

If we extrapolate out these numbers to the entire season Brady is on pace for 76 pass attempts of 20+ air yards. That pace would also be for 26 completions on those passes for 748 yards and no additional touchdowns or interceptions.

This Has Been Going On Longer Than You Might Think

Notice I jumped from 2020 straight to 2022? Well, you may not have noticed it, but this reduction in both attempts and production on deep passes isn’t new this year. In 2021, Brady’s deep ball attempts dropped from the aforementioned 119 to just 88. His deep ball rate fell to 10.9%. So, for those of you who believe that this year Brady is afraid to throw the ball deep like he did the past two years, well the numbers tell a different story. This year is just a continuation of a trend that started last year.

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: USA Today

Now, if 2021 has a more reserved version of Brady taking fewer deep shots how come the offense was still able to put up 30 points per game, while this year’s version has been stuck at 17.2? Last year’s offense proved he didn’t need to fire off 100+ deep throws per season to be effective even in an Arians system. But something must have changed this year, right?

It starts with the production this year on those throws. It has taken a nose-dive vs last year. His completion percentage last year on those was 42% which meant he connected on 37 of them. And the yards per attempt was still a very healthy 12.9. Brady was also able to muster nine touchdowns and just five interceptions on those throws.

So, 2022 has combined the more timid strategy of 2021 with worse results. And now the offense is mired in stagnation. Now Brady and the Bucs deep attack isn’t the only thing holding this offense back, but it is most certainly a contributing factor.

Is Brady’s Deep Ball Cooked?

That’s a complicated question. Some may look at the numbers and come to the quick conclusion that it is. But that type of analysis is lazy. To definitively say yes, we would need to define “cooked.” I would venture to say that if it was, we would see a precipitous drop-off in arm strength evidenced by not being able to launch the ball as far or with the same velocity as in previous years. This would show itself in balls being consistently underthrown. So, I decided to take a look at those 58 attempts and see if Brady what common themes I might be able to find on those deep passes.

Now, I’m not about to post 58 different clips here. You wouldn’t read it and my kids wouldn’t let me have the time to write it. But I did review them all. And I tried to place them into buckets. Of the 61 throws that RNFLData classified into these types, one was a Hail Mary attempt, and two Brady was hit as he threw which led to incompletions. Let’s focus on the 58 other passes.

Brady’s “Dimes”

I have a feeling many people would be surprised to hear that the bucket with the largest volume of throws was what I classified as “dimes.” Pro Football Focus might qualify them as “Big Time Throws.” These were throws that required a high level of difficulty, often times into a tight window. And Brady has had quite a few of those, averaging a bit over one per game. Some great examples would be this touchdown pass to Breshad Perriman in the first Saints game this year.

It was 43 yards in the air from the opposite hash dropped right in the breadbasket. There isn’t an arm strength issue here. But something to note here. The Saints came with a three-man rush and Brady had all day to not only go through his reads but set his throwing base correctly and execute great mechanics. This was a common theme throughout watching these plays. If Brady felt comfortable and had a good pocket to work from his mechanics were generally at a level that allowed him to make a great throw. And he can absolutely still make them.

But even when he does make a great throw, they aren’t always caught. I could just throw up the deep post to Mike Evans in Carolina, but that would be too easy, and we have all seen it over and over at this point. I thought instead I would go with one from earlier in the season.

There is no arm issue here either. This is a fantastic throw to a small window. Treyvon Diggs just makes an incredible play to break up the pass.

Underthrows

Underthrows have been a frequent topic of discussion regarding Brady this year. The narrative it seems is that the arm talent is diminished, and he is underthrowing his receivers more often than in years past. The tape just doesn’t bear that out. It’s not that he hasn’t underthrown a receiver this year. I clocked seven total over 13 games. But three of them have come in the last two weeks, so they are fresh in everyone’s mind. The most egregious in my mind would be the miss to Scotty Miller last week against San Francisco.

The snap catches Miller’s defender unprepared and Miller is able to release clean on a nine route. Miller immediately throws up his hand as if he is a power forward calling for a ball in the post. Brady sees it and puts the throw up from a clean pocket. This should be one of the easiest touchdowns of either players’ career. All he had to do was put the ball up and let Miller run under it. But Brady fails to fully step into the throw and ends up throwing it short and behind Miller. Miller has to turn fully around and can’t corral the ball.

Overthrows

What has happened far more often this year has been Brady overthrowing his targets. Where Brady has seven underthrows on the season, he has 10 overthrows. And five of those have come in the last two weeks as well. So that means in the two most recent games Brady as either under or overthrown his targets deep eight times. That to me is a signal that Brady is pressing because of the struggles around him. And that is causing Brady to rush his mechanics and/or trying to aim the ball rather than just letting his muscle memory lead the way. This leads to these off throws. Case in point this overthrow to Chris Godwin against the Browns three weeks ago.

Godwin works to a big hole in the defense and Brady just puts too much under the throw. Godwin is unable to jump and secure the ball. If this connection is made late in the fourth quarter, the Bucs are in field goal range and likely win the game.

Miscommunication With Receivers

Probably the most frustrating throws to watch are ones where Brady just isn’t on the same page as his receivers. I suppose this is a necessary evil in an offense that calls for so many option routes, but it isn’t new receivers that he is not on the same page with. These are the guys who helped Brady unlock this offense over the two years prior. I noted it a couple of weeks ago with Brady and Mike Evans not being on the same page. I counted seven such instances over the course of these 61 passes. If those six simply hit because quarterback and receiver were on the same page this article isn’t written because the numbers look the same as years past. And that is a great example of the razor thin margins in the NFL.

With Godwin running a slot fade off of motion, Brady feels good with the one-on-one that Godwin gets off the switch with Evans. And this could have connected for a big gain except Godwin slows his route as he looks back to the backfield. Brady’s throw indicates he was trying to hit a spot he expected Godwin to be at based off of a full run. These are issues that shouldn’t be happening in year three.

Yes, Brady is still playing at a high level in year 23. Yes, the arm talent is still there. He still can (and has) hit long balls. But the Bucs’ deep game is inconsistent.

Whether it is receivers falling down (Miller), breaking off routes or not running the route Brady expects, or Brady throwing the occasional overthrow/underthrow/inaccurate pass, the mistakes are too common. And it has led to the least efficient deep game of the Byron Leftwich era. And given that it isn’t one problem, but the convergence of multiple problems, don’t expect it to magically improve just in time for a playoff push.

Although that would be nice.