A lot has changed for the Bucs in the last 24 hours. They went from hopeful that their Super Bowl winning, future Hall of Fame quarterback might return to the team for one last year, to now being left in the barren desert that is quarterback-needy teams.

The free agent market is suspect at best. The trade market is costly as hell. According to Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds the in-house options are lacking. That leaves one last possible recourse for the team to remain competitive this year. The Bucs could draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.

What Quarterbacks Could Be Available At Pick 19?

Kentucky QB Will Levis – Photo by: USA Today

Currently among most draft analysts there are three to four quarterbacks who are likely to be selected in the first round of the upcoming draft. Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, Kentucky’s Will Levis and Florida’s Anthony Richardson have all shown the potential to be franchise quarterbacks. Stroud and Young are both projected to be off the board in the first five picks. Levis and Richardson are both potential top 10-to-20 picks.

The Bucs could sit tight and hope one of them fall to them. That would require the team to have a strong opinion on all four. The Chargers felt that way in 2020 with all three of the top quarterbacks in that draft (Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert). That allowed Los Angeles to stay at pick No. 6 and take whichever of the three was still available, rather than using precious draft resources to pay the premium to move up to get “their guy.”

But there is a big difference in holding pick No. 6 with three potential targets and holding pick No. 19 with four potential targets. At least 10 of the teams picking ahead of Tampa Bay could make a case for needing a new signal-caller. The odds that the Bucs value all four players high enough to want to draft them with their first-round pick AND none of those 10 other teams valuing all four similarly is slim to none.

Bucs Will Most Likely Need To Move Up To Secure A QB

Discerning what it would cost to move up in the draft is a bit more art than science. There are tons of trade value calculators that have been developed over the years. But none can tell you with any reasonable certainty what the cost would be because every team in the NFL doesn’t adhere to the same chart. Instead, it is best to consider the most widely cited of those charts while also looking at comparable trades that have occurred recently.

2021/2022 First Round Trades

Look at the trades that occurred just last season and you will see the premium on moving into the top 10 is extremely high. Here are the first-round trade ups of the past two years.

• 2022-New Orleans Saints trade up from No. 16 to No. 11. The cost for New Orleans to move up just five spots was pick No. 98 and pick No. 120.
• 2022-Philadelphia Eagles trade up from No. 15 to No 13. The cost for Philadelphia to move up just two spots was No. 124,  No.162, and No. 166 overall picks.
• 2022-Detroit Lions trade up from 32 to 12. In the biggest jump of the draft the Lions jumped twenty spots giving up pick No. 32, pick No. 34, and pick No. 66 for pick No. 12 and No. 46.
• 2021-San Francisco 49ers move up from No. 12 to No. 3. The cost for San Francisco was a 2022 first- and third-round pick, and a 2023 first-round pick.
• 2021-Miami Dolphins move up from No. 12 to No. 6. The Dolphins also received fifth-round pick in the deal (No. 156 overall), while giving up pick No. 123 and a 2022 first-round pick.
• 2021-Philadelphia Eagles move up from No. 12 to No.10. The Eagles gave up the 84th overall pick in the deal.
• 2021-Chicago traded from pick 20 to pick 11 while giving up the 164th overall pick that draft plus a 2022 1st round pick and a 2022 fourth-round pick.
• 2021-New York Jets traded up from No. 23 to No. 14. The Jets also gave up picks No. 66 and No. 86 while getting back pick No. 143.

Using these trades, we can estimate that the cost for the Bucs to move from pick No. 19 into the Top 10 if they choose to go get a quarterback in the draft.

Here is an estimation of the package the Bucs would have to give up to move into each spot in the Top 10.

• Pick No. 10 – Pick No. 19 in 2023, 2024 first round, 2024 fourth round
• Pick No. 9 – Pick No. 19 in 2023, 2024 first round, 2024 third round
• Pick No. 8 – Pick No. 19 in 2023, 2024 first round, 2024 third round, 2025 sixth round
• Pick No. 7 – Pick No. 19 in 2023, 2024 first round, 2024 second round, 2025 fifth round
• Pick No. 6 – Pick No. 19 in 2023, 2024 first round, 2024 third round, 2025 second round
• Pick No. 5 – Pick No. 19 in 2023, 2024 first round, 2024 second round, 2023 first round
• Pick No. 4 – Pick No. 19 in 2023, 2024 first round, 2024 second round, 2023 first round, 2024 second round

For picks No. 1-3 the Bucs would need to include their second-round pick this year on top of the package for pick No. 4. Given the holes on the roster currently it is most likely they are unwilling to make offer that up.

The evaluation the team would have to have on these draftable quarterbacks would have to be extremely high to give up these assets. That move would also tie head coach Todd Bowles and general manager Jason Licht to the success or failure of whomever they select. It would be a giant gamble that would steer the direction of the organization for years to come.