While most Bucs fans will be watching tonight’s playoff matchup against the Dallas Cowboys with the sole hope of the Bucs winning the game and advancing in the post-season, many others enjoy the greatest of sports past times. That past time is betting on the game or on different scenarios within the game. Fortunately for many of those people Underdog Fantasy exists with their “Pick’Em” plays. Simply create an account with underdog, seed it with a little bit of money and you can earn up to twenty times your wager if you successfully pick higher or lower on several player’s stats. With that in mind I thought I would share a few plays that might help you hit big on tonight’s game.
Bucs WR Chris Godwin Receptions
Underdog currently has their higher/lower on Godwin’s receptions at seven. I believe the higher will hit on this play. Not including week 18 (when he played only a half because the game did not have any bearing on the team’s playoff seeding) Godwin has averaged over 10 targets per game. His catch rate over that time period has been north of 80%. Look for Godwin to maintain that catch rate on 10-12 targets tonight putting the higher in play to hit.
Godwin is one of quarterback Tom Brady’s go-to underneath options as he operates primarily from the slot. Look for the Bucs to go to some quick game elements of their offense early as they test out their new offensive line combination. That bodes well for Godwin to be targeted a substantial amount on quick slants/hitches/crosses as well as his patented bubble screen.
Bucs WR Mike Evans Fantasy Points
The higher/lower set for Mike Evans fantasy points is currently sitting at 11.75. Underdog uses a half-point per reception model for calculating fantasy points. Evans is averaging over nine targets per game since week 14. While his catch rate over that time period is sitting right around 60% that still sets him up for about five to six catches. At his season-long yards per reception mark of just under 15 I am projecting Evans to end the game with six catches for 90 yards. That puts him at 12 fantasy points without even considering he may score a touchdown. Play the higher on this one.
Bucs RB Rachaad White Receiving Yards
White has four different plays available, including 54.5 rushing + receiving yards, 35.5 rushing yards and 9.5 rushing attempts. But it his receiving yards line that intrigues me the most. They have set the higher/lower at 15.5 yards. Not including the week 18 Atlanta game where White only played a small portion of the game, he has eclipsed that 15.5 mark in five of his last six games. Brady trusts White and fellow running back Leonard Fournette as underneath check down options when deeper developing routes just aren’t there or if the pass rush is after him quickly. This seems like a very safe play.
Cowboys TE Dalton Schultz Receiving Yards
Underdog requires your play include at least one player from each team so here is my recommendation for who to roll with from the Bucs opposition. In their week one matchup Schultz hauled in seven of eight targets for 62 yards. In addition, he has averaged over seven targets per game in his last five weeks as quarterback Dak Prescott’s second most targeted receiver. On the year the Bucs defense has allowed number one tight ends to average 4.6 targets, 3.6 receptions and 35 yards per game. So the line on Schultz’s receiving yards being set at 39.5 seems a little rich for me and I would play the lower on this one.
So, what say you Bucs fans? Will you be playing Underdogs pick’ems tonight? If so will you be running with my plays above or do you see some other lines that are more favorable?