BUCS at VIKINGS
WHEN: Sunday, September 10, 2023 | WHERE: U.S. Bank Stadium | KICKOFF: 1:00 p.m. ET | TV: CBS
PLAY-BY-PLAY: Andrew Catalon | ANALYSTS: Tiki Barber and Matt Ryan | SIDELINE: AJ Ross
RADIO: 98 ROCK 97.9 FM | PLAY-BY-PLAY: Gene Deckerhoff | ANALYST: Dave Moore | SIDELINE: T.J. Rives
Game day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report staff to make its weekly game predictions and offer up our game preview of this week’s matchup. Let us know what you think in the article comments section and add your prediction, too.
Scott Reynolds: Bucs Win Another Road Opener Under Bowles
Bucs OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
The Bucs upset the Cowboys last year in Dallas in the 2022 season opener, 19-3, and I think they’ll do it again. This year’s season opener – also on the road at Minnesota – will be a much closer affair. The Vikings were 13-4 last year, winning the most one-score games in NFL history. Was that luck or do the Vikings really know how to win close games? We’ll find out on Sunday.
The Bucs’ 10-6 record in 2010 under Raheem Morris came in a similar fashion with a handful of last-second victories against some bad teams. The Bucs’ 10-6 record was really smoke and mirrors, evidenced by a 4-12 season the next year.
I don’t think the Vikings will have the balance on offense without Dalvin Cook. He’s a special back and not easily replaced. Can K.J. Osborn or rookie Jordan Addison step up and replace Adam Thielen, who was Kirk Cousin’s go-to guy in the red zone?
Todd Bowles’ defense will be faster and more athletic this year. He’s had all offseason to scheme, so I look for a big day for the Bucs defense in holding the Vikings to 21 points or less. Helping out Christian Izien in the slot against Justin Jefferson will be paramount, though.
On offense, it’s the first big chess match for Dave Canales, who will go against new Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores. The big question is at right guard as to whether the right side of the offensive line can hold against Pro Bowl pass rusher Danielle Hunter. Establishing the run will be key for Canales, and Rachaad White likely needs a 100-yard game to help the Bucs win – in addition to a turnover-free day from Baker Mayfield. I think both can happen. It won’t be a pretty win, but Chase McLaughlin helps Tampa Bay start the season 1-0.
REYNOLDS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 23, Vikings 20
REYNOLDS’ SEASON RECORD: 0-0
Matt Matera: Bucs Keep It Close, But Need More Room To Grow
Bucs ILB Lavonte David and WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today
There is so much intrigue and mystery when it comes to the new-look Bucs offense. Offensive coordinator Dave Canales plans to have plenty of motion, a commitment to running the ball, a lot of play-action and overall eye candy. That all sounds fine and good, but whether the players can execute it is a different story. The Vikings also have a new defensive coordinator in Brian Flores, who is much more aggressive. The battle between two unknown commodities makes it much more exciting, yet difficult to predict.
Where the Bucs can exploit Minnesota is with their matchups for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The Vikings lost Patrick Peterson in free agency, which means Byron Murphy Jr. and Akayleb Evans are their starting corners. Akayleb Evans is only in his second year and has started just two games. This is a great opportunity for Mike Evans and Godwin to absolutely eat.
Tampa Bay can also take advantage of a Vikings run defense that allowed 123 yards per game last season. Minnesota does have great pass rusher and will surely attack right tackle Luke Goedeke and whoever is starting at right guard between Cody Mauch and Aaron Stinnie. Whoever wins between the Bucs offense and Vikings defense will win the game. I just don’t know if Baker Mayfield and the revamped offensive line are ready just yet.
The main objective for the Bucs’ defense is to slow down Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson. I’m hoping Todd Bowles will just let cornerback Carlton Davis III follow him wherever he is on the field while also give him safety help over the top. If the Vikings beat the Bucs with their other skill players, so be it.
It’ll be a good challenge for the returning Shaq Barrett and the rest of the Bucs’ outside linebackers as the Vikings have formidable offensive tackles. Their weakness is the interior offensive line, so Vita Vea needs to tear it up. The question will be how much Calijah Kancey plays and what Logan Hall can do when in. They could have a big impact in the game. I think this one will be pretty close, but the Bucs still have some growing to do. Keeping it close with Minnesota could be a sign that this team is better than most think. They’ll just have to show it come about next week.
MATERA’S GAME PREDICTION: Vikings 24, Bucs 21
MATERA’S SEASON RECORD: 0-0
Bailey Adams: Bucs Do Enough To Hand Vikings A One-Score Loss
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and RB Rachaad White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
Predicting Week 1 in the NFL can be a complete mess. Recent years have taught us that more than ever, right? Just last year, the Bears — who went on to finish 3-14 — beat the 49ers, a team that eventually finished 13-4 and went to the NFC Championship Game. The year before that, an average Saints team opened the season by beating the eventual 13-4 Packers by a score of 38-3. So, who knows what craziness Week 1 will bring us in 2023?
Nonetheless, I keep getting this nagging urge to pick the Bucs over the Vikings on the road this Sunday. Even if I probably shouldn’t, I’m gonna listen to that urge. Tampa Bay has a completely new look and identity now that Tom Brady is gone, and how that will play out over the course of the season is unclear.
But I think the new era begins with a victory on Sunday. An improved offensive scheme and the typically reliable Todd Bowles defense can get the job done against a Minnesota team that has some questions of its own to answer.
I’m a believer in Dave Canales and his offense. The little we saw of the starting offensive line and Rachaad White in that preseason finale has me thinking the Bucs could show improvements in their run game as early as Week 1. The Vikings weren’t good against the run last year, and I’m not sure how much better they’ll this year. Meanwhile, Bowles’ defense has enough on the back end to at least manage Justin Jefferson and keep Minnesota from putting up a crazy offensive day. The Vikings’ 11-0 record in one-score games just can’t be replicable, right? Give me the Bucs in a close one.
ADAMS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 23, Vikings 17
ADAMS’ SEASON RECORD: 0-0
Josh Queipo: Bucs Take Advantage of Vikings Lack of Defensive Identity And Win
Bucs OC Dave Canales and run game coordinator Harold Goodwin – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
It turns out I was the most down on the Bucs when the Pewter Report staff issued our season record predictions. But my outlook for the Bucs season opener is much rosier. While the Vikings were a playoff team last year, their 13-4 record was more of a mirage than a realistic reflection of the team’s talent.
Last year the Vikings were an unsustainable 11-0 in one score games. They then lost their best cornerback and brought in a defensive coordinator who loves to play Cover-1/Cover-0 and blitz the house. The problem is the Viking’s defense is full of players who are better suited to drop into zone and rush four. Something has to give.
In my mind the thing that gives is the Vikings’ chances of winning. The corners have trouble hanging with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and Dave Canales’ affinity for play-action gives quarterback Baker Mayfield enough time to hit four explosive plays.
On defense, the Bucs have trouble containing receivers Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, K.J. Osborne and tight end T.J. Hockenson. leading to a solid scoring affair. But in the end Tampa Bay is able to do enough to make a late-game stop and pull out of Minnesota in victorious fashion.
QUEIPO’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 30, Vikings 27
QUEIPO’S SEASON RECORD: 0-0
Adam Slivon: Bucs Come Out On Top In Week 1 With Win Over Vikings
Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today
While you may think Tampa Bay stands no chance, anything can happen in the season opener. Especially with a new offensive play-caller. No one knows what Dave Canales will dial up, especially on the first drive. That adds intrigue and unpredictability, which ultimately should catch the defense off guard and lead to some points early on.
The running game should be better led by Rachaad White, and he has an opportunity to feast on a weaker defensive line. Besides defensive end Danielle Hunter, the Vikings don’t offer a ton of resistance up front. It’s a defense lacking many playmakers besides Hunter and safety Harrison Smith, and the Bucs will look to capitalize through the air as well, with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin going up against a largely unproven secondary.
What will keep the Vikings in the game is the offense, led by quarterback Kirk Cousins and wide receiver Justin Jefferson. There is really no stopping Jefferson’s impact, but a triumvirate of Carton Davis III, Jamel Dean, and Antoine Winfield Jr. should hold him in check better than other opposing defensive backs. Shutting him down contains a large part of their offense, although rookie Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn are other weapons needed to be accounted for.
A big X-factor will be the Vikings running game against the Bucs run defense. Alex Mattison replacing Dalvin Cook is a drop off in name recognition, but he has been solid in spurts in the past. If Calijah Kancey plays, that’s a big boon up front alongside Vita Vea. With a weaker interior offensive line, the Vikings will be hard-pressed to have a complementary rush attack in this one.
Ultimately, I see the Bucs coming out strong with two scoring drives, weakening the ‘SKOL’ chants throughout U.S. Bank Stadium. While the Vikings will make it interesting towards the end, Tampa Bay comes out on top and starts the season on a positive note, giving fans optimism heading into the home opener against the Bears.
SLIVON’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 24, Vikings 20
SLIVON’S SEASON RECORD: 0-0
