Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The Bucs fell to 4-5 after losing in overtime, 30-24, to Patrick Mahomes and the undefeated Chiefs at Arrowhead on Monday Night Football. After a promising 3-1 start, the Bucs have now lost four out of their last five games and the heat is getting turned up on head coach Todd Bowles because his defense has been the culprit in the losses. San Francisco got back to .500 with a win over Dallas two weeks ago and the 4-4 49ers got a week to rest and prepare for the Bucs during their bye week.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Chiefs TE Travis Kelce and Bucs SS Jordan Whitehead – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs are in some real trouble, sinking to 4-5 on the year after their third straight loss. Even though Tampa Bay is just one game below .500, it feels worse than that because the defense can’t seem to stop anyone. Todd Bowles’ defense has surrendered 30 points or more in each of the team’s last four losses. The fact that Bowles calls the plays on defense puts him at serious risk of losing of his job if the team fails to make the playoffs as a result of not fixing the defense.

Offensively, Liam Coen has done a remarkable job of scoring 24 points in each of the last two games without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Coen is opening eyes with his creativity and his adaptiveness while missing the team’s top two weapons in the passing game. Baker Mayfield did what he had to do in Kansas City, which was to make plays and not turn the ball over. That has to continue moving forward to help the team’s chances of winning.

Should the Bucs lose four straight and head into the bye week with a 4-6 record, the heat will be turned up on Bowles. All momentum from a 3-1 start will be gone and the Bucs will be in scramble mode trying to win out just to grab a wild card spot in the NFC. This game against San Francisco has become a must-win game for Tampa Bay.

What’s At Stake For The 49ers

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and 49ers QB Brock Purdy – Photo by: USA Today

The 49ers have had trouble finding their footing this year. San Francisco has four wins, but has yet to produce consecutive victories in 2024. The 49ers will have the chance to do that coming off a 30-24 win versus the Cowboys prior to the team’s bye week. San Francisco needs to get healthy with several injured receivers and Brandon Aiyuk on injured reserve, as well as linebacker Dre Greenlaw out and Javon Hargrave and Talanoa Hufanga on injured reserve defensively.

The team should receive a boost from the return of running back Christian McCaffrey, who could be making his 2024 debut after missing time due to an Achilles heel/calf injury. Running backs Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo have done a great job filling in during McCaffrey’s absence, but he’s a complete runner and receiver who brings another element of speed and playmaking ability to the 49ers offense.

The key to the 49ers winning is scoring 30 points. The team has hit 30 points or more in all four wins and have not scored more than 24 points in all four of the team’s losses. Tampa Bay’s defense is really struggling this season and has allowed 27 points per game over the year, but has surrendered an average of 34 points over the last three games.

The Bucs Win If…

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay actually made some strides on defense in the last game at Kansas City and that must continue. Todd Bowles’ defense only allowed 24 points in regulation, but then gave up an overtime touchdown to wind up surrendering 30 points to the Chiefs. Tampa Bay must do a much better job in the red zone and force teams to kick field goals instead of allowing touchdowns. The defense also needs to come up with more takeaways. The Bucs won the turnover battle in K.C., but were only plus-one in that category.

Baker Mayfield needs to help out in that regard by continuing to play turnover-free football. Mayfield threw a pair of touchdowns versus the Chiefs, and he didn’t throw an interception. The Bucs will need to get back to rushing for over 100 yards, which was difficult to do against a stout Chiefs defense. Injuries have depleted the 49ers defense to a degree and the Bucs need to take advantage of that, win the time of possession battle and score touchdowns not field goals in order to knock off the 49ers.

Just as important, head coach Todd Bowles needs to make better in-game decisions and manage the game better than he did against the Chiefs. Kyle Shanhan has out-coached Bowles in each of the last two meetings, which were won by a combined score of 62-21. The Bucs played the 49ers a little closer last time, but can Bowles devise a game plan to finally stop Shanahan’s offense? Or will Shanahan continue to have mastery over Bowles the way Sean Payton does?

The 49ers Win If…

49ers RB Christian McCaffrey – Photo by: USA Today

Simply put, the 49ers need to put up 30 points or more against a bad Bucs defense that has been allowing 30 points or more in four of the last five games. The team is hoping star running back Christian McCaffrey can return to action off injured reserve and make an impact against the Bucs as he has in years past in San Francisco and also in Carolina. He’s tough to cover out of the backfield and has the make-you-miss quality between the tackles that can give the Bucs linebackers fits.

Pro Bowler George Kittle should continue the trend of opposing tight ends eating the Bucs defense alive across the middle of the field. Baltimore’s Mark Andrews and Atlanta’s Kyle Pitts each had two touchdowns in recent wins against Tampa Bay. Kansas City’s Travis Kelce had a 100-yard day against Todd Bowles defense. Without Brandon Aiyuk and having Deebo Samuel hobbled, Kittle will be the focal point of San Francisco’s passing attack.

Defensively, the 49ers have 10 interceptions so far this year and need to force Baker Mayfield into making some mistakes with pressure. Mayfield didn’t throw a pick in Kansas City and that allowed Tampa Bay to stay in that game and take it to overtime. The 49ers will need star players like Nick Bosa and Fred Warner to step up and make big plays on defense to prevent the 49ers from slipping to 4-5 and sliding down the NFC West standings even more. Winning the turnover battle will be a big key in Tampa Bay.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs RT Luke Goedeke vs. 49ers DE Nick Bosa

Bucs RB Rachaad White and 49ers DE Nick Bosa – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay right tackle Luke Goedeke is going to have his hands full against one of the league’s best pass rushers in Nick Bosa on Sunday. Coming off a 10.5-sack season, Bosa already has 4.5 sacks this season and is on pace for his fourth straight year with double-digit sacks. Bosa will see action on both sides of the defensive line, taking turns against Goedeke as well as left tackle Tristan Wirfs on Sunday.

But the 49ers would be wise to match him mostly with Goedeke, who is the lesser outside tackle in Tampa Bay. Bosa has already played 247 snaps on the left side battling right tackles, while he has logged 175 snaps on the right side against left tackles. In the last meeting, Bosa was a game-wrecker with nine tackles, six quarterback pressures and one of San Francisco’s six sacks in a 27-14 win over Tampa Bay at Levi’s Stadium.

Goedeke is having a good, but not great season this year – likely due to missing four games with a concussion he suffered in Week 1. He’s earned a 62 overall grade from Pro Football Focus and has a 70.6 pass rush grade, giving up just one sack and eight hurries in five games. Goedeke must bring his A game to slow down Bosa as a pass rusher and wear him out in run blocking.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs NCB Tykee Smith vs. 49ers WRs Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings

Bucs NCB Tykee Smith and Chiefs TE Travis Kelce – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay rookie Tykee Smith has been a huge bright spot on the team’s terrible defense. The third-round pick leads the Bucs with three forced fumbles, including one against Travis Kelce on Monday Night Football, and also has an interception for Todd Bowles. Smith is a natural playmaker, and outside of a tough game in coverage at Atlanta and missing the other Falcons game with a concussion, he’s had a Defensive Rookie of the Year-type season.

Smith won the team’s starting nickelback job in camp with his veteran-like maturity and his high football I.Q. He’ll have his hands full on Sunday against the 49ers’ slot receivers. Head coach and offensive play-caller Kyle Shanhan likes to rotate his receivers into the slot to create mismatches and different looks for the defense. With Brandon Aiyuk out for the year, Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings are the primary receivers in the passing game along with tight end George Kittle.

Kittle leads the 49ers with 40 catches for 503 yards (12.6 avg.) and six touchdowns, but Samuel has 24 receptions for 406 yards (16.9 avg.) and one score on the year. Jennings has stepped in nicely for Aiyuk and has 25 catches for 404 yards (16.2 avg.) and three touchdowns, playing as well as Samuel has. With Samuel still dealing with some injuries, the big-bodied Jennings will be counted on even more on Sunday to present himself as an open target for Brock Purdy.