After starting 3-1 once again with a strong September, the Bucs came into Week 5 looking to avoid a big letdown and the start of another October slide. And sure enough, they came through with a huge road win over the Seahawks, beating them 38-35 in dramatic fashion to get to 4-1 ahead of this Sunday’s return to Raymond James Stadium. As Tampa Bay returns home for Week 6, the 4-1, NFC West-leading San Francisco 49ers come to town for a 4:25 p.m. kickoff.

Tampa Bay will be looking to reverse its fortunes against Kyle Shanahan and Co., as San Francisco has won the last three meetings between the two teams, spanning 2022, 2023 and 2024. Todd Bowles’ team has gotten closer and closer to beating Shanahan’s each year, and this may finally be the time to turn the tide and pick up what could be a crucial head-to-head win for NFC playoff seeding down the line.

Both the Bucs and 49ers come into Sunday’s meeting with a long list of injuries, but to this point, both teams have done a phenomenal job of overcoming adversity and getting to a point where they’re 4-1 and leading their respective divisions. And help is on the way for both squads, even if that doesn’t mean this week. Tampa Bay has a host of key players set to return in the coming weeks, while San Francisco should get starting quarterback Brock Purdy, star tight end George Kittle and potentially No. 1 receiver Brandon Aiyuk back in the near future.

But for now, both teams will be looking to keep things rolling with a “next man up” mentality, which they’ve done well thus far in winning four of five games to start the 2025 season. But which one will weather the injury storm better when it comes time for a head-to-head matchup on Sunday afternoon at Ray Jay?

Let’s dive into what might decide this matchup, as well as some key players to watch in this 4-1 vs. 4-1 NFC showdown on Sunday in Tampa:

What Might Decide This Bucs-49ers Matchup?

There isn’t any singular player who can be given 100% of the credit for the Bucs’ 4-1 start to the season. But a significant share of credit has to go to quarterback Baker Mayfield, who has put together an MVP-like start to his third campaign in Tampa Bay. He’ll remain the X-factor in this game, as continued excellence from Mayfield will put the team in position to win another one and get to 5-1 ahead of a primetime game in Detroit in Week 7. If he continues to make big throws, extend plays with his legs and avoid turning the ball over, Tampa Bay will love its chances of coming away with a home win.

Of course, Mayfield will need some help, and the first person he’ll look to for that help is rookie sensation Emeka Egbuka. The Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner has been a true No. 1 receiver for Tampa Bay through the first five weeks, which has been a huge help considering Mike Evans‘ absence since the second half of Week 3 and the slow start from Chris Godwin Jr. since his return from injury. Egbuka has shattered some rookie records on his way to 25 catches for 445 yards (17.8 avg.) and five touchdowns through his first five games, and he’ll need to continue to produce at a high level if the Bucs are going to win on Sunday.

But the Buccaneer offense could also use some more from Godwin, who had three catches for 26 yards in his return against Philadelphia in Week 4 and then replicated that stat line in Week 5. It was always going to take time for him to return to form after such a significant injury that ended his 2024 season, but this offense could use a Godwin who looks more like the Godwin of old. Now, in the meantime, continued production from Sterling Shepard, Tez Johnson and Cade Otton would help, too.

Bucs WRs Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin Jr. Photo by: USA Today

As much as Mayfield, Egbuka and the passing game can set the Bucs up for success against the 49ers, improvement in the run game would be nice, too. It seems like Bucky Irving will miss his second straight game, meaning an increased role once again for Rachaad White. White played well in Seattle, scoring twice in the red zone while factoring into things as a pass-catcher as well. But if White and even Sean Tucker can help the rushing attack to a strong day against a middle-of-the-pack run defense, Tampa Bay will have a better chance of controlling possession offensively and grinding down the opposition under the hot Tampa sun.

As for Todd Bowles‘ defense, it would be nice to strike a balance between the fundamentally sound football the unit played for the first three games and the second half of the Eagles game and the opportunistic, takeaway-based performance it had in Week 5. With Tykee Smith‘s fumble recovery and Lavonte David‘s interception in Seattle, the Bucs doubled their takeaways on the year. More big momentum-shifting plays like those combined with assignment-sound play like they displayed for much of the first four weeks should give the group a good chance against the 49er offense.

A big key to finding that balance will be the health of the secondary, which looks to be a huge question mark heading into Sunday’s game. Jamel Dean (hip) and Benjamin Morrison (hamstring) both missed last week’s game, and to make matters worse, the status of Zyon McCollum (thumb) is up in the air for Week 6 as of this writing. Dean appears to be trending in the right direction, but both Morrison and McCollum missing this contest against the 49ers would once again put some stress on the team’s depth at cornerback and safety.

Bucs CBs Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

And the final key to this game for the Bucs is getting their special teams unit to play a complete game, which has been seemingly impossible so far this season. Tampa Bay had issues early on in the year with the kicking game, then came problems with blocked punts and a blocked field goal. Last week, Thomas McGaughey‘s phase of the game avoided disaster in terms of the field goal kicking and punting games, but there were still three or four lapses when it came to kickoff coverage. Getting that aspect of the game corrected is key against a Kyle Shanahan-led offense that will take advantage when gifted advantageous starting field position.

As for the visiting side, health on offense is still a big question. The Bucs are missing their right guard, right tackle, starting running back and No. 1 receiver, but the 49ers are perhaps the only team in the league that can go injury for injury with what’s been going on in Tampa. San Francisco’s starting quarterback, Brock Purdy (toe) appears unlikely to play on Sunday, while top receivers Ricky Pearsall (knee) and Jauan Jennings (ankle, rib) are in question while Brandon Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle remain sidelined.

Even Purdy’s backup, Mac Jones, is banged up. He appears to be on track to start for San Francisco come Sunday afternoon anyway, but it’ll be interesting to see how much of a factor his knee and oblique injuries are. He looked to be in significant pain at the end of last Thursday’s win over the Rams, and he has been limited in practice this week. If Tampa Bay’s defense can get some pressure on him and keep him uncomfortable, it could bring an end to his undefeated streak as the 49ers’ starter this season.

49ers QB Mac Jones – Photo by: USA Today

What would help Jones out a whole lot is if the 49ers can get the run game going. You would think that isn’t a tough ask considering they have Christian McCaffrey, but he is averaging only 3.1 yards per carry so far this season, rushing for 282 yards on 91 carries. He has yet to reach the end zone on the ground, too, which is rare for the longtime superstar. However, he has been a force in the passing game and with a number of receivers missing, has led the way for that aspect of the offense with 387 receiving yards and three touchdowns on 39 catches (9.9 avg.).

Speaking of receivers and the San Francisco passing game, who will be available to help Jones out? Outside of McCaffrey, Pearsall has been the second-leading receiver for Shanahan’s offense this season, but his status is in question. Jennings is trending in the right direction, but he has just nine catches for 129 yards and a touchdown in three games this season. A lot will be on the shoulders of tight end Jake Tonges (19 catches, 166 yards, three touchdowns, 8.7 avg.) and Kendrick Bourne (18 catches, 229 yards, 12.7 avg.) if Pearsall and/or Jennings are either inactive or less than 100%.

And how well the San Francisco offensive line is able to protect an injured Jones will be a huge factor in whether the visitors can keep this one competitive. Tampa Bay’s pass rush hasn’t been what Todd Bowles hoped it would be entering the season, but if the likes of Vita Vea, Yaya Diaby and Haason Reddick, among others, can get to Jones and make it difficult for him to settle in, it would go a long way in limiting what the 49ers can do on offense. Jones has been sacked five times in his three games this season, and it’s essential for the Bucs to get after him on Sunday.

49ers LB Fred Warner and DC Robert Saleh Photo by: USA Today

As for the San Francisco defense, a lot will come down to whether defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has an answer for Emeka Egbuka. With Charvarius Ward now in Indianapolis, the 49ers’ starters at cornerback are Renardo Green and Deommodore Lenoir, with rookie Upton Stout at nickel cornerback. None of those three have graded out particularly well this season by Pro Football Focus’ metrics, so if Bucs offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard can move Egbuka around and find favorable matchups throughout the day, it could be another big day for the rookie receiver and a high-flying day for the Tampa Bay offense.

Another key is to find a way to take advantage of the right side of the Buccaneer offensive line. With right tackle Luke Goedeke out and Charlie Heck in, there’s a big dropoff. Not to mention, the season-ending injury to Cody Mauch at right guard has led to a huge hole at that spot. The problem for Saleh’s defense is that it’s in less of a position to take advantage than it normally is. Top pass rusher Nick Bosa is out for the season, while a number of interior defenders are on this week’s injury report. If Bryce Huff and the pass rush can’t get to the quarterback, it’ll be hard for the visitors to escape with a 5-1 record.

Key Players To Watch

Bucs TE Cade Otton – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

One of the unsung heroes of the Bucs’ 4-1 start has been tight end Cade Otton. With the injuries on the offensive line – first at left tackle with Tristan Wirfs and then at right tackle with Luke Goedeke – Otton has been tasked with staying in and contributing in pass protection more often to start this season. And he has selflessly done so, and he’s done so well, grading out with a 74.0 pass blocking grade thus far. Last week, though, he got in on the fun with the passing game, catching four passes for 81 yards. For what he does in the blocking game and the chain-moving catches he can make, Otton could be a big factor in Sunday’s game.

It’s not that he’s been bad this season, but the Bucs need more from Yaya Diaby. The third-year outside linebacker has just one sack this season, and while his 18 total pressures is top-25 in the NFL, he needs to convert those pressures into quarterback takedowns. Missed opportunities have been a big part of the story for Diaby this year, and last week’s game in Seattle was a big example. Between a missed sack on a key fourth down that resulted in a Seahawks touchdown and a near-interception that went from potential pick-six to completion, the plays were there to be made. If those types of plays are there for the taking on Sunday, Diaby needs to finish them.

With so many weapons out on the offensive side, the 49ers have needed Christian McCaffrey to be a true go-to guy. He’s been that, as he’s averaging 26 touches per game, with 91 carries and 39 catches through five games. He has 52 targets overall, so he has absolutely been a focal point. If the 49ers are going to keep pace with the Buccaneer offense on Sunday, they’ll need a big day from McCaffrey. He’ll need to have the kind of day Kenneth Walker III had on the ground against Tampa Bay last week, while explosive plays like the ones Bijan Robinson, Nick Chubb and Woody Marks had in Weeks 1 and 2 would go a long way, too.

49ers RB Christian McCaffrey and Bucs ILB Lavonte David – Photo by: USA Today

Fred Warner remains the NFL’s best inside linebacker these days. And on a San Francisco defense lacking some overall star power with Charvarius Ward’s exit and Nick Bosa‘s injury, Warner has to be the key figure on that side of the ball. He has 50 tackles (28 solo), two tackles for loss, three passes defensed, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery in five games this season, and he’s the type of player who will need to be neutralized, even if he can’t be shut down, if the Bucs want to find some success offensively, both in terms of moving the ball and putting points on the board.