BUCS vs. COMMANDERS
WHEN: Sunday, September 8, 2024 | WHERE: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL) | KICKOFF: 4:25 p.m. ET | TV: FOX
PLAY-BY-PLAY: Kevin Kugler | ANALYST: Daryl Johnston | SIDELINE: Laura Okmin
RADIO: 98 ROCK 97.9 FM | PLAY-BY-PLAY: Gene Deckerhoff | ANALYST: Dave Moore | SIDELINE: T.J. Rives
Game day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report staff to make its weekly game predictions and offer up our game preview of this week’s matchup. Let us know what you think in the article comments section and add your prediction, too.
Scott Reynolds: Bucs Get Up Early, Hang On For Week 1 Win
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
I expect the Bucs to beat the Commanders in Week 1. Tampa Bay will get an early touchdown and never trail, but Washington rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is talented enough to have his team hang around and keep it interesting. The Bucs will rely on their ground game in the second half to salt away the win, in what could be a rainy second half as the Tampa Bay area has been in a weird weather pattern over the last week or so where it rains every late afternoon/early evening. Ball security is a must for the Bucs on Sunday.
I expect Todd Bowles to come out playing a healthy amount of zone defense to prevent Jayden Daniels from having escape lanes when the pass rush doesn’t quite get home. Playing man is risky against mobile QBs because the defender’s back is turned to the line of scrimmage in coverage and that can allow for a big play.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Bowles rushes four defenders early on to see if he can apply pressure with that and drop seven in coverage to try to confuse Daniels and force him into an interception or two. As I wrote about in Friday’s SR’s Fab 5 column, Todd Bowles’ record with the Bucs against rookie quarterbacks isn’t as bad as you think it is.
Look for the Bucs ground game to start slow but come on strong in the second half as the Commanders defense eventually gets worn down by the heat and humidity in the first half. Baker Mayfield is efficient and does enough in the passing game to move the sticks and put some points on the board. I think Liam Coen’s offense will average 24 points per game – a three-point increase over last year. So I’m going with that in Week 1.
REYNOLDS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 24, Commanders 20
REYNOLDS’ SEASON RECORD: 0-0
Matt Matera: Bucs Pull Away From Commanders And Win The Opener
The Bucs certainly seem relaxed heading into their first game of the season based on the reactions from head coach Todd Bowles and quarterback Baker Mayfield during the week. This team is confident and poised looking to continue their progress as a legitimate playoff contender. It has to be a good feeling for Tampa Bay going against Washington, who has talent at the first two levels on defense, but struggles heavily in the secondary.
Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today
With all the talk of the Bucs wanting to run the football, that may have to wait until the second half of the game, or the following week. I’m all for establishing the run, but the Bucs have a huge advantage with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan against Washington’s secondary.
The Commanders were last in the league in yards allowed and passing yards allowed last season and brought back several starters on the back end. It would make less sense if the Bucs didn’t go after that group. Washington will try to exploit rookie center Graham Barton, so he’ll have to be up for the challenge, but if holds his own, the Bucs should win.
It’ll be very exciting to watch Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels make his NFL debut. Tampa Bay has gone against mobile quarterbacks before, so the rushers staying in their lane and forcing Daniels to stay in the pocket will help. Having Yaya Diaby for Week 1 is also a bonus.
Daniels can throw the ball really well, but after Terry McLaurin the threats in the passing game aren’t as pressing. With Bowles throwing many different looks to confuse Daniels, the Bucs defense gets the benefit of playing with an early lead and are able to keep their distance from Washington throughout the whole game.
MATERA’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 27, Commanders 17
MATERA’S SEASON RECORD: 0-0
Bailey Adams: Bucs Open Up 2024 With A Promising Home Win
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
I can’t wait to see the 2024 Bucs take the field for regular season action Sunday afternoon, with Ray Jay rocking to welcome back the three-time defending NFC South champions. And yes, I’m excited to see them match up with the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner and LSU legend Jayden Daniels, the Commanders’ No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 Draft.
There are elements of this matchup that could prove tricky for Tampa Bay, but I think this is a team that opens this new season with a far clearer grasp on its identity than it had at the start of last year (though the Bucs did win their opener last year and start 3-1).
The core free agents were retained, the offense should be in position to take a step forward (and run the ball better) under new offensive coordinator Liam Coen and Todd Bowles’ defense is still plenty talented and will be ready to go. Tampa Bay figured things out down the stretch last year, and I think the guys in this locker room will come into the new year with some confidence and calmness about them.
On the other sideline will be a Commanders team still in the early stages of its rebuild and development. New ownership, new coaching staff and a host of new players — including a rookie quarterback — has the vibes higher in D.C. than they’ve been in a while, but this is a team with less talent than Tampa Bay.
There will undoubtedly be some highlights from Daniels in his regular season debut, but I think there could be some mistakes, too. I like the Bucs defense to largely take control of things, plus I think Baker Mayfield and the offense can light it up right out of the gate this season. It may be close for a while, but the home team’s talent wins out and does enough to make for a 1-0 start to the year.
ADAMS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 30, Commanders 21
ADAMS’ SEASON RECORD: 0-0
Josh Queipo: Bucs Build On Off-Season Vibes With Opening Week Win
Commanders HC Dan Quinn – Photo by: USA Today
The Bucs and the Commanders are just not even close to each other in the winning cycle of an NFL team. Washington is starting over with a head coach and a rookie quarterback while the Bucs are trying to build on a Divisional Round appearance last year. The Commanders can test the Bucs’ revamped interior offensive line with their talented trio of defensive tackles, Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne and Jer’Zhan Newton. But there are very few other places where the advantage does not favor Tampa Bay.
Washington’s offensive line play outside of newly extended guard Sam Cosmi is riddled with question marks; none bigger than third round rookie left tackle Brandon Coleman. Given quarterback Jayden Daniels threat as a runner it is incumbent upon the Bucs pass rush to win this matchup in the trenches by getting home with just four. But outside of the unpredictable nature of Daniels’ out of structure abilities the Bucs defense is well-suited to contain Washington’s version of the air raid offense.
On offense the Bucs receivers have giant mismatches against the Commanders secondary that should be ripe for exploiting by new offensive coordinator Liam Coen. I would hope that Coen targets Commanders middle linebacker Bobby Wagner, who despite his future Hall of Fame reputation is now a liability in coverage, with slot receiver Chris Godwin.
To add to that, if Washington continues to start 2023 first-rounder Emmanuel Forbes at cornerback Coen should look to match up receiver Mike Evans on him. Evans’ physical brand of football will overwhelm the slender Forbes and should lead to a big day for the Tampa Bay passing game. And that should help further open up the run game Coen and Co. are hoping to establish. All of this should only help to bolster expectations around Tampa Bay.
QUEIPO’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 27, Commanders 17
QUEIPO’S SEASON RECORD: 0-0
Adam Slivon: Bucs Passing Game Leads To A “Commanding” Victory
Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
The start of the NFL season is finally here! As the Bucs gear up to face a new-look Commanders squad, there is plenty of optimism surrounding Tampa Bay’s offense. While they face a stout Washington defensive line led by Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne, there will be plenty of chances through the air to capitalize (pun intended) on a defense that ranked 32nd in scoring, total defense, and passing defense last season.
As Baker Mayfield begins his second season with the Bucs, there is perhaps no better matchup to kick off the year than having the chance to pick apart a young secondary led by Emmanuel Forbes and Mike Sainristil. With that in mind, I expect Mayfield to get Mike Evans and Chris Godwin their touches – but don’t forget about Jalen McMillan as he makes his NFL debut.
Speaking of debuts, Graham Barton will have his hands full against Allen and Payne, but it is a great measuring stick for how NFL-ready he is. Although many players and coaches expect the run game to improve (I do too), it may not start this week. If the passing game is clicking, it won’t matter though.
Defensively, Tampa Bay lines up against the highly-touted Jayden Daniels. Co-defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers mentioned on Thursday that his running ability is “sickening,” and the front seven will have to contain his dual-threat playstyle. Todd Bowles has to make Daniels uncomfortable early on, which he should do by dialing up blitzes and not allowing the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner to get into a rhythm.
That should lead to mistakes and turnovers that they can take advantage of. That should lead to the Bucs being able to control the game and putting points on the board. On the road in the Tampa Bay heat, the Commanders don’t have the weapons nor the chemistry of their opponent. This week that matters, and I expect the home team to pull off a “commanding” victory.
SLIVON’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 30, Commanders 17
SLIVON’S SEASON RECORD: 0-0
