After a disappointing Week 3 loss to the Broncos, 26-7, the Bucs will try to bounce back when they face the 2-1 Eagles at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday.

Here is a scouting report on the Eagles compiled from NFL Pro and tape evaluation. We previewed the matchup on the Pewter Report Podcast, but here are the full notes.

Eagles Key Offensive Stats

• EPA/Play          0.043     12th
• Success Rate     44.3%    16th
• EPA/Pass          0.135     8th
• Success Rate     47.6%    13th
• EPA/Rush         -0.086   19th
• Success Rate     39.8%    14th

Eagles Offensive Personnel Usage

• 11P (3WR-1RB-1TE)      61.30%
• 12P (2WR-1RB-2TE)     25.30%
• 13P (1WR-1RB-3TE)      4.00%
• 21P (2WR-2RB-1TE)     8.00%
• 01P (4WR-0RB-1TE)     1.30%

Run Game Breakdown

Performance vs. Coverages

• Cover-0 – 1.80 EPA/play
• Cover-1 – 0.41 EPA/play
• Cover-2 – -0.09 EPA/play
• Cover-2 Man – -0.04 EPA/play
• Cover-3 – 0.64 EPA/play
• Cover-4 – 0.02 EPA/play

QB Jalen Hurts

Targeting (Depth)

• Deep – 7.8%
• Intermediate – 19.6%
• Short – 47.1%
• Behind Line of Scrimmage – 25.5%

Targeting (Width)

• Left – 26.37%
• Center – 40.66%
• Right – 32.97%

Favorite Routes

• Flat – 14.89%
• Curl – 14.89%
• Dig – 10.64%
• Screen – 10.64%
• Out – 5.32%

Offensive Notes

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Eagles QB Jalen Hurts – Photo by: USA Today

Facing a blitz just 28.2% of the time (16th) OVR. Jalen Hurts isn’t great against it, but his numbers are better than just pure pressure. This suggests he doesn’t yet fully understand some of the answers to Kellen Moore’s offense. Only 8.4% of drop backs have been RPO’s as Moore tries to install a true drop back offense. The offensive line has only allowed pressure on 29.5% of drop backs (9th best in NFL).

Pass block scheme often involves some shotgun, play action traps getting Hurts just outside right tackle with room to scramble to the dominant side. The O-line has some opportunities for pass rush. Left guard Landon Dickerson is struggling mightily to pick up stunts/twists/games.

Right tackle Lane Johnson will likely be out, and if so, Fred Johnson is in-line to replace. Johnson is a clunky mover who tries to vertically set too quickly and gives opportunity for the inside move (Yaya Diaby’s new specialty). He also exposes his chest and has poor targeting with his hands.

There is an opportunity for Diaby and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka to drive through him w/speed-to-power and bull rushes. Right guard Mekhi Becton has stiff hips and can let guys get across his face and struggles with pad level. He’s questionable with a hand injury. This would be great matchup for Calijah Kancey if he was available.

Running back Saquon Barkley is back and looks faster and shiftier than in recent years. The O-line opens up massive holes for him with effective double teams on inside zone, trusting he will read keys and make the middle linebacker declare, then make him wrong.

Receiver Info

DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown are unlikely to play this week against the Bucs, elevating tight end Dallas Goedert and running back Saquon Barkley to the Eagles’ best options in the pass game. They traded for receiver, and former first-round pick, Jahan Dotson as insurance in case Brown or Smith were to get injured. Unfortunately, for the Eagles he has not provided the production they were looking for in that scenario.

Jahan Dotson has run 99 routes this year.

He has 14 yards. https://t.co/hcTWz2nOPi

— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) September 25, 2024

Gameplan Recommendations

This looks like a perfect offense to stifle with Cover 2. The Bucs have athletes in the secondary who should be able to rotate into those Cover 2 looks easily, allowing Jordan Whitehead to rotate down into eight-man boxes pre-snap and help with numbers in the run game. I would also concentrate the bulk of twists/stunts/games on the left side of the line to compromise left guard Landon Dickerson as much as possible and try to isolate Fred Johnson one-on-one with Yaya Diaby and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka.

Get physical at the line of scrimmage with Dotson and the rest of the receivers and dare them to beat you deep. Make sure tight end Dallas Goedert is accounted for on every play.

Key Defensive Stats

• EPA/Play          0.055     23rd
• Success Rate     40.40% 9th
• EPA/Pass          0.148     24th
• Success Rate     43.1%    13th
• EPA/Rush         -0.068   18th
• Success Rate     36.8%    12th

*EPA rank is consistently lower than success rate because Eagles allow a lot of explosives. Currently 6th most explosives allowed w/21. 12 rushing allowed (t-5th most) and 9 pass allowed (t-10th most).

Pass Rushers By Pressure

• Blitz Rate – 26.30% – 15th
• Pressure Rate – 40.70% – 11th

Coverage Info

Defensive Notes

• Team does not blitz much as they are now under Vic Fangio.
• Zack Baun being used like Martellus Bennett in Minnesota as a do-everything ‘backer. Can line up in slot vs TE/Receiver, brought into box, put on line, or even out wide.
• When engaged defensive tackle Jalen Carter is a game-wrecker and will present a huge problem for Bucs interior offensive line, especially if aligned over left guard Ben Bredeson.
• Invite the run on early downs with favorable looks for the offense (6 men in the box on 1st or 2nd down 73% of the time).
• Corners do not follow. Rookie Quinyon Mitchell is exclusively right cornerback and Darius Slay is exclusively left.
• Per PFF in five career matchups between Mike Evans and Slay (w/Slay in coverage) 16 targets, 10 catches, 111 yds, four first downs, 0 TDs. Evans’ total line in those games – 36 targets, 21 receptions for 277 yards and 2 TDs
• Chris Godwin in slot vs. C.J. Gardner-Johnson can be advantage for the Bucs. In six career matchups Godwin has 15 catches on 23 targets for 218 yards, six first downs and a touchdown when targeted with Gardner-Johnson in coverage. Gardner-Johnson also has a pick in that matchup.