Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The Bucs fell to 4-3 on the year with a disappointing 41-31 loss to the Ravens at home on Monday Night Football. Tampa Bay hosts a 4-3 Falcons team that beat the Bucs in Atlanta, 36-30, in overtime at the beginning of the month. Atlanta currently has the tie-breaker for the division lead, but the NFC South lead could change hands on Sunday with a Tampa Bay win in the annual creamsicle throwback game.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Bucs RB Sean Tucker – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay lost its top two weapons on offense with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin getting injured. That’s about one-third of Tampa Bay’s offense and nearly half of the Bucs’ production in the passing game. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen will have to be very creative this week in working with a young and unheralded wide receiver corps that includes aging veteran Sterling Shepard. And tight end Cade Otton, who had eight catches for 100 yards in the loss to Baltimore, will have to also step up and be featured more going forward.

Expect the Bucs to lean on their newfound running game that features three talented backs in Rachaad White, Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker. All three can run it and catch it, which will help take some of the pressure off quarterback Baker Mayfield, who has thrown seven touchdowns in the last two games, but also has thrown five interceptions.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles has to fix his defense as it surrendered 36 points to the Falcons three weeks ago and 41 points to Baltimore on Monday Night Football. Tampa Bay has done a decent job getting pressure up front, but the secondary and linebackers have played way too soft in zone coverage. There are too many open receivers and tight ends, and that has to be fixed if the Bucs are going to have a chance to win and split their series against the Falcons. With tough games coming up against Kansas City and San Francisco before the bye week, Tampa Bay needs to get a win to avoid a possible 4-6 record heading into the bye.

What’s At Stake For The Falcons

Falcons WR Drake London and Bucs NCB Tykee Smith – Photo by: USA Today

The Falcons had captured three straight NFC South wins before an upset loss to the Seahawks at home last Sunday. A win over the Bucs in Tampa Bay would give Atlanta a 4-0 stranglehold lead in the division and a 5-3 record overall. This is a must-win game for the Bucs, and the Falcons have to know that coming in to Raymond James Stadium.

With every team in the NFC North currently having a winning record, the Falcons know that they might  have to win the division in order to qualify for the playoffs. A win in Tampa Bay also puts Atlanta closer to surpassing the 7-10 record the team has been mired in during each of the last three seasons. Atlanta was banged up earlier in the year, but the Falcons are healthier now than when they played the Bucs the first time. Getting linebacker Nate Landman back has been huge for Jimmy Lake’s defense.

Kirk Cousins played a big role in the Falcons’ loss last Sunday with two interceptions and a fumble. Despite throwing for over 500 yards and four touchdowns against Tampa Bay in Week 5, it was fourth-quarter interception that nearly cost the Falcons a chance to win that game. Cousins has to protect the ball in order to give Atlanta the best chance to win.

The Bucs Win If…

Bucs RG Cody Mauch – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay has done a great job of scoring on its first possession. After not getting a touchdown on the opening drive all of last year, the Bucs have scored touchdowns on their initial possession in each of the last four games. Getting an early lead will be critical, as will scoring touchdowns and not settling for field goals because the Bucs offense won’t be as explosive as it was with a healthy Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

Tampa Bay will have to stay within one score to be able to have a balanced attack and keep running the ball. Baker Mayfield must lean on the league’s eighth-ranked rushing attack and the play of the offensive line and avoid trying to do too much. Mayfield has thrown a combined five interceptions in the last two games and must play turnover-free in order to give Tampa Bay the best chance to win.

The Bucs have been averaging 30 points per game this year, but Tampa Bay can’t count on that moving forward. The Bucs defense absolutely has to play better, especially against the pass. The coverage has been too soft and too loose in the secondary and head coach and defensive play-caller Todd Bowles has not made the necessary adjustments to tighten things up. He needs to get K.J. Britt, who is a liability in coverage, off the field on passing downs and play some dime defense – or platoon J.J. Russell at linebacker. Playing more man coverage would help, too.

The Falcons Win If…

Falcons QB Kirk Cousins – Photo by: USA Today

Atlanta needs to bounce back from last week’s eye-opening loss to Seattle. After scoring 36 points in a win over Tampa Bay and 38 points in a win at Carolina, the team could only muster up a pair of touchdowns last Sunday. The Falcons are 4-0 when scoring 22 points per game or more this year. If Kirk Cousins can be as opportunistic in the passing game as he was against the Bucs the first time, the Falcons should cruise to their fifth win of the season and sweep Tampa Bay. He has to avoid turnovers for the Falcons to win, though.

The Falcons defense can breathe a sigh of relief in being the first team to face the Bucs without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. That should make life easier for Atlanta’s secondary on Sunday. With Tampa Bay having to lean on the ground game to move the ball and put up points, Atlanta’s defense needs to sell out to stop the run with a safety in the box and play man coverage in the secondary.

The Bucs offense won’t be as explosive missing Evans and Godwin, who combined for 11 touchdowns in the first seven games, so holding Tampa Bay to field goals will be huge. If the Falcons can get an early lead on the Bucs, it should force Tampa Bay to have to pass the ball to come back. That means dealing with lesser receivers and taking away the Bucs’ best weapons, which are the running backs.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs WRs vs. Falcons DBs

Tampa Bay will be without its top two targets against Atlanta, as Mike Evans is out for the next three games due to a hamstring injury and Chris Godwin is out for the year due to his dislocated ankle. The Bucs’ young receivers – rookie Jalen McMillan and second-year pass-catcher Trey Palmer – along with Sterling Shepard are going to have to step up and make plays for quarterback Baker Mayfield. That means running crisp routes and breaking those routes off at the precise depth to create separation. This trio cannot be rounding off routes against Atlanta’s secondary.

The strength of the Falcons defense is the secondary, which is led by a pair of Pro Bowlers in Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates III. Each has a big interception on the season and both are natural, opportunistic ballhawks by nature. While cornerback A.J. Terrell gets most of the publicity, Mike Hughes has played better this season, and nickelback Clark Phillips III is actually better than both in terms of coverage. Atlanta only has five interceptions this year as a team, but Mayfield has thrown five picks in the last two games. He has to play turnover-free against the Falcons in order for the Bucs to win, and the receivers need to really help out.

McMillan, Palmer and Shepard need to be on the same page with Mayfield when it comes to reading the defense and running the correct choice routes. The Bucs receivers don’t have to do anything special to win the game for Tampa Bay. But they need to be a sound complement to Liam Coen’s game plan and can’t let Mayfield down by running wrong routes that could lead to interceptions or not getting open and creating separation, which could lead to sacks.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs Back 7 Defenders vs. Falcons QB Kirk Cousins

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins shredded the Bucs secondary in the Thursday Night Football game in Week 5, throwing for a Falcons-record 509 yards and four touchdowns and one interception while completing 72.4% of his passes. Out of Cousins’ 509 passing yards, 338 of those yards came across the middle of the field, where he targeted inside linebackers K.J. Britt and Lavonte David, safeties Jordan Whitehead and Christian Izien and nickel cornerback Tykee Smith, who gave up a pair of touchdowns.

That was Cousins’ best game of the season, and he’s been rather pedestrian in his last two games – a 38-20 win over the Panthers and a 34-14 loss at home to the Seahawks. Cousins completed 63.3% of his passes for 225 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions at Carolina, and completed 68.6% of his passes for 232 yards with one TD and two interceptions in the loss to Seattle.

The Bucs sacked Cousins four times in Week 5, with defensive tackle Logan Hall getting two and defensive tackle Vita Vea getting one. Cousins was pressured well, but Tampa Bay’s coverage was incredibly lax and receivers were open all night. Tampa Bay’s back seven defenders played a similarly crappy game against Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, who picked the secondary apart for five touchdowns and 281 yards while completing 77.3% of his throws. The Bucs’ back seven have to tighten up the coverage and put themselves in position to break up passes and pick them off.