Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss, and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

Tampa Bay is now 7-6 after a humiliating, 24-20 loss at home to the previously two-win New Orleans Saints last Sunday. The Bucs are now 2-5 in their last seven games and are fighting for their playoff lives. They need a win over the 4-9 Falcons to stop the bleeding heading into next week’s big showdown at Carolina against the 7-6 Panthers. Atlanta has tanked after a 3-2 start and Raheem Morris is on the hot seat. The Falcons need to finish strong as jobs are on the line, and they would love to spoil the Bucs’ postseason plans.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs?

For the Buccaneers, Thursday Night Football against the Falcons in Week 15 is one of those late-season crossroads games that can define the trajectory of their December push. Coming on the heels of a surprising and embarrassing 24-20 upset loss at home at the hands of the Saints on Sunday, the Bucs are in must-win mode for the final games of the season. After leading the NFC South since a Week 1 win at Atlanta, Tampa Bay is now tied with Carolina for the division lead as both teams are 7-6.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

A win keeps the Bucs in control of their destiny. A loss opens the door for the Panthers to take a one-game lead leading up to next week’s showdown in Carolina and turns the final stretch into a pressure cooker. Tampa Bay is reeling right now with a 1-4 record since the bye week and the team is just 2-5 since a hot 5-1 start. A massive amount of weekly injuries has halted any early season momentum.

Neither the offense, the defense nor special teams are playing at a playoff level right now. That needs to change quickly on a short week against Atlanta. Beat the Falcons and everyone feels better about the Bucs’ chances heading into Charlotte next week. Another home loss to a team with a losing record and the Panthers will have the advantage.

What’s At Stake For The Falcons?

For the Falcons, Thursday Night Football in Tampa is the season’s last real lifeline – a make-or-break moment under the bright lights with the entire NFL watching. After a 3-2 start that included an impressive win over Buffalo, Atlanta is cratering with just one win in its last eight games. Last week’s embarrassing 32-9 loss at home to Seattle officially knocked Atlanta out of the NFC playoff picture.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles and Falcons HC Raheem Morris – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The last time the Falcons made the postseason was back in 2017, and the team has to win out to even match last year’s disappointing 8-9 record. That has head coach Raheem Morris on the hot seat as his record over nearly two years is just 12-18. Losing starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr., last year’s first-round pick, to a torn ACL hasn’t helped and has put a damper on the season.

Yet the Falcons have continued to play hard with a pair of overtime to the Colts and Panthers, and the team also has suffered a one-point loss to the Patriots and a three-point loss to the Jets. So despite just four wins, Atlanta can’t be taken lightly by Tampa Bay on Thursday Night Football. The Falcons will be highly motivated to beat a divisional foe and win out to build some momentum for 2026 – and possibly save Morris’ job.

The Bucs Win If…

If the Buccaneers want to take down the Falcons on Thursday Night Football in Week 15, they’ll need all hands on deck. That means any and all players who are battling with injuries need to play if they can. Sunday’s surprising loss to the Saints means that the Bucs aren’t in position to rest up and save some injured starters for next week’s game at Carolina. The Bucs need to win versus the Falcons on Thursday night first – and then deal with the Panthers after 10 days of rest and recovery.

Bucs DT C.J. Brewer – Photo by: USA Today

Offensively, Baker Mayfield must play better and rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka must hang on to the ball. It’s that simple. Mayfield hasn’t been as accurate over the last month since a good showing against the Patriots after the bye week. He’ll need to rebound from his worst game of the season in last week’s loss to New Orleans and play his best game against Atlanta. The same goes for Egbuka, who has had some big drops recently. Hopefully Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan can suit up and help Mayfield. Offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard needs to get the Bucs into more manageable third downs with better play calls and pound the rock on the ground.

Defensively, Todd Bowles’ unit has not made enough plays. From giving up big pass plays and big runs since the bye week, Tampa Bay’s defense has been allowing an average of 28 points per since Week 10. The Bucs have missed sacks and not taken the ball away enough in recent weeks. The defense has been in disarray and is lacking confidence right now. The key to turning that around is stopping Bijan Robinson, creating some early takeaways and not letting Kirk Cousins get into an early rhythm.

The Falcons Win If…

Kirk Cousins destroyed Todd Bowles’ defense in two games last year, as the Falcons swept the Buccaneers. Cousins completed over 72% of his passes in each game and totaled 785 yards, including a franchise-record 509 yards in the win at Atlanta last year. He also tossed four touchdowns in each game with just one interception. With Michael Penix Jr. out, Cousins starts against Bowles’ unit again and will need to have a similar type of performance.

Bucs C Graham Barton – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

While Cousins will be without Atlanta’s top receiver Drake London, the Falcons are expected to pound the Bucs on the ground with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Robinson is also a weapon in the passing game and has hurt the Bucs before on swing passes. And for some reason, underachieving tight end Kyle Pitts always seems to have great games against Tampa Bay, as he averaged 80 yards per game versus the Bucs last year and scored two touchdowns.

Defensively, Atlanta has to make life uncomfortable for Baker Mayfield from the opening snap. That means winning up front and generating consistent pressure without having to blitz heavily. If the Falcons can disrupt Tampa Bay’s timing routes and force Mayfield into hurried throws, opportunities for takeaways will follow. The Falcons must be stout against the run and slow down the Bucs’ three-headed monster at running back that includes Bucky Irving, Rachaad White and Sean Tucker.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield vs. Falcons Defense

Thursday night’s matchup will likely come down to which quarterback plays better – Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield or Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins. Mayfield has been in a slump over the past month, completing just 54% of his passes with just four touchdowns and four interceptions. Simply put, Mayfield needs to be more accurate and make more plays in the passing game.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

At the same time, he will need his receivers to step up and play better. Rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka has had some big drops in recent weeks, and Mayfield needs him to play better – as well as Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan returning to action. This is a huge game and Mayfield needs to deliver in the clutch in primetime.

Atlanta’s defense is not great, but it has gotten some impact from its rookie class. Edge rushers James Pearce (six) and Jalon Walker (five) have combined for 11 sacks, and safety Xavier Watts leads the Falcons with three interceptions. Atlanta needs its rookie playmakers to make their presence felt against Mayfield on Thursday night.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs Defense vs. QB Kirk Cousins

Atlanta quarterback Kirk Cousins was benched last year in favor of Michael Penix Jr. because of poor play down the stretch. Cousins was tied for the league lead in interceptions in 2024 with 16. But in  two games against Tampa Bay, Cousins played like Superman with over 800 combined yards and eight total touchdown passes with just one INT. Against the rest of the schedule, Cousins was simply Clark Kent.

Falcons QB Kirk Cousins – Photo by: USA Today

Cousins had a lot of success carving up the Bucs defense with throws across the middle. That’s an area of the field that New Orleans rookie QB Tyler Shough exploited in last week’s upset win over Tampa Bay. Expect Cousins to pick on aging linebacker Lavonte David and Deion Jones, who is expected to start in place of the injured SirVocea Dennis.

The Bucs need to apply immediate pressure against Cousins to combat his quick release and rattle him. Hitting the 37-year old Cousins and forcing him into some errant throws that could lead to interceptions is what Todd Bowles defense must do. But with the Bucs’ pass rush floundering, that might be easier said than done.