Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The 3-2 Bucs are coming off a disappointing 20-6 loss to the 5-1 Detroit Lions in the creamsicle throwback game. The Falcons lost at home in their throwback game, 24-16, to the Washington Commanders and are now 3-3.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Tampa Bay is 3-2 on the season and it’s important to examine the team’s record. The Bucs are in a rebuilding/reloading mode and are starting a lot of rookies and second-year players on both sides of the ball. Tampa Bay has shown itself to be a good team this year, but certainly not a great one. At least not yet. Both of the Bucs’ losses came against the 5-1 Philadelphia Eagles and the 5-1 Lions – both are considered to be elite teams in the NFC right now and the early favorites to win their respective divisions.

Bucs WR Trey Palmer – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay has beaten two bad teams in the 2-4 Minnesota Vikings and the 1-5 Chicago Bears, as well as getting a key divisional road win at New Orleans against a 3-3 Saints squad. The Bucs are on top of the NFC South by half a game and can extend that lead with a win over the visiting Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. A victory propels the Bucs to a 2-0 start in the division and a 4-2 record while dropping the Falcons below .500.

The Falcons have lost three of their last four games, and have struggled to score. Atlanta is averaging just 9.7 points per game in its three losses this season. The Bucs offense has also struggled to score points, scoring a season-low six points in the team’s loss to the Lions. This feels like a game where the offense can bounce back and outduel Atlanta. This is a winnable game for Tampa Bay and it needs to capitalize on it with a win on Sunday.

What’s At Stake For The Falcons

Arthur Smith is in his third season in Atlanta and his seat is getting warmer. After a pair of 7-10 seasons, the expectation is that Smith can have a breakthrough season, post a winning record and get the Falcons into the playoffs – either as a Wild Card team or a division winner. After a 2-0 start, the Falcons have lost three of their last four games. Smith’s overall record in Atlanta is now 17-23, and if the Falcons fall below .500 on Sunday, the heat on Smith will only be turned up.

Falcons QB Desmond Ridder – Photo by: USA Today

While the losses to Detroit and Jacksonville may be forgivable given the fact that the Lions are now an upper-echelon team in the NFL and the Jaguars are the best team in the AFC South, a 24-16 home loss to Washington last Sunday was not. What makes matters worse for Smith, who also serves as the team’s play-caller, is that the Falcons’ offense has the league’s 29th-ranked scoring offense, averaging just 16.5 points per game.

The Falcons spent a lot of money in free agency, especially on the defensive side of the ball. But it’s the offense that is holding the team back. Second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder has been sacked 19 times through six games and he’s thrown six TDs and six INTs. The Falcons have some weapons in receiver Drake London and a pair of good tight ends in Jonnu Smith and Kyle Pitts, as well as a strong 1-2 punch on the ground in running backs Bijan Robinson, the team’s first-round pick, and Tyler Allgeier. But when the Falcons are forced to pass the ball, Ridder has not delivered.

The Bucs Win If…

Tampa Bay’s formula for success this year is to win the turnover margin. Without overflowing talent on the roster, the team’s margin for error is small this year. The Bucs are 3-0 in games in which they have won the turnover battle. For the first time all season, Todd Bowles’ defense failed to record a takeaway against Detroit, and that was a huge reason why Tampa Bay lost, 20-6, on Sunday. The Bucs need to get back to creating takeaways on defense and Desmond Ridder has already thrown six interceptions this season, so there should be opportunities to make that happen.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Quarterback Baker Mayfield needs to avoid interceptions and have a bounce-back game from last week, when his overthrows and underthrows prevented the Bucs from scoring touchdowns. It would be nice if Tampa Bay could run the ball and provide the balance necessary to make Mayfield’s play-action fakes even more successful. The Bucs have the league’s 29th-ranked rushing offense and the team was held to just 46 yards on the ground versus the Lions’ stingy run defense.

Atlanta’s run defense isn’t as stout, but it is ranked 10th in the league, allowing just 99 yards per game on the ground. The Bucs would gladly take that, but really need to rush for more than 100 yards to have enough success on offense to win the game. Dave Canales can’t get too stubborn about the running game despite him wanting the Bucs to get better at it by repping it.

Using short, high-percentage passes to soften the defense and opening up the run may be the way to go. The Bucs are an elite pass blocking team and Canales needs to lean on that and use the passing game to set up the run, as he did successfully in New Orleans.

The Falcons Win If…

The Bucs have a stout run defense that held the Lions to just 40 yards on the ground last week. But if the Falcons can rev up their ground game and get Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier going, that takes so much pressure off quarterback Desmond Ridder and opens up Atlanta’s passing game. Robinson has been as good as advertised with 80 carries for 401 yards (5.0 avg.). The rookie is also a factor on third downs, catching 26 passes for 189 yards (7.3 avg.) and two scores. Getting a 100-yard game from Robinson or more than 100 yards from the Robinson-Allgeier combo is paramount for the Falcons’ success.

Falcons TE Jonnu Smith – Photo by: USA Today

While Kyle Pitts comes with the former first-round draft billing, it is new tight end Jonnu Smith, a seven-year veteran, who is slightly more productive this season. Smith is the Falcons’ second-leading receiver with 25 catches for 282 yards and one touchdown. Pitts is third with 22 catches for 251 yards and one TD. Atlanta relies a lot of its tight ends in the passing game, but also needs a big game from receiver Drake London, who has 26 catches for 329 yards (12.7 avg.) and two TDs. He’s coming off his most productive game of the season, catching nine passes for 125 yards (13.9 avg.) against the Commanders.

Atlanta’s defense added a lot of new faces this offseason, with safety Jessie Bates III being one of the stars. The playmaker is off to a great start with all three of the team’s interceptions and two forced fumbles in the first six games and leads the Falcons with four pass breakups. But outside of Bates, turnovers have been hard to come by.

Atlanta needs to get more takeaways on defense and more sacks. The Falcons only have 10 sacks on the year, with newcomer Bud Dupree leading the way with two sacks while Grady Jarrett, Arnold Ebiketie and new defensive tackle David Onyemata each have 1.5 sacks. Getting pressure on Baker Mayfield and picking him off on Sunday is a must.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield vs. Falcons S Jessie Bates III

As much as Bucs free safety Antoine Winfield Jr. has been a game-wrecker in Tampa Bay this season, Atlanta safety Jessie Bates III has actually been playing better. Bates is a one-man-gang on defense for the Falcons and has created five takeaways on his own in his first season in red and black. He’s been the lone interceptor in Atlanta this season, leading the team with three, which also leads the NFL. The ballhawking Bates now has 17 interceptions in his NFL career, including one against Baker Mayfield when Mayfield was a Cleveland Brown and Bates was a Cincinnati Bengal.

Falcons FS Jessie Bates III – Photo by: USA Today

Mayfield has done a good job protecting the ball since arriving in Tampa Bay. He has a favorable 7:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has listened to offensive coordinator Dave Canales’ mantra of not turning the ball over. Mayfield’s interception on Sunday came off a deflection at the line of scrimmage, which was unfortunate rather than a poor decision. But he has to guard against trying to do too much this week after an overall bad game against the Lions were the Bucs were held to just two field goals.

Mayfield has thrown an interception in each of the last three games, and must recognize where Bates is lurking on every play pre-snap. If Mayfield can avoid turning the ball over, the Bucs stand a great chance of winning against the Falcons. Conversely, Atlanta needs more takeaways on defense and after going three straight games without a pick, Bates is due for another INT.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs DTs Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey vs. Falcons Interior OL

The Bucs saw the emergence of what the team hopes is a shining star in first-round pick Calijah Kancey in Sunday’s loss to Detroit. The rookie defensive tackle played his first full game after battling a calf injury that kept him out of most of training camp, all of the preseason and all but 11 plays in the first four games of the season. Kancey made his presence felt all game with six pressures, six tackles and his first NFL sack. He and Vita Vea can be a dynamic 1-2 punch of speed and power up front for Todd Bowles’ defense.

Bucs DT Calijah Kancey – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

That defensive tackle duo helped hold the Lions to just 40 yards rushing on Sunday and will need to have a similar-type performance on Sunday to slow down the terrific tailback tandem of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Standing in the way will be Atlanta guard Chris Lindstrom, who has become one of the best in the league, and center Drew Dalman, who is off to a fine start in 2023. If there’s a weak link on Atlanta’s offensive line, it is the play of rookie left guard Matthew Bergeron, and that must be exploited by the Bucs defensive line.

Overall, the Falcons have allowed Desmond Ridder to get sacked 19 times this season, an average of three times per game. This could be a big sack game for Bowles’ unit, and it starts with pressure up the middle in Ridder’s face from Kancey and Vea. But in order to really rush the passer, Vea and Kancey need to win their individual battles up front first against the run. The Falcons primarily run the ball to their right behind Lindstrom and right tackle Kaleb McGary, so Kancey will need to use his speed to penetrate and score some tackles for loss on Sunday.