Only four days after a ridiculous loss to the previously two-win Saints on their home field, the Bucs will be back at Raymond James Stadium looking for a badly needed rebound. The Falcons are in town for both Thursday Night Football and the annual creamsicle game, and this is a game the Bucs absolutely need to win to get back on track before the final three weeks of the season, which include two games against the Panthers that are likely to decide the NFC South.

Actually, a win on Thursday night is a step toward that Week 18 game against the Panthers in Tampa being rendered meaningless. Because as bad as it was for the Bucs to lose to the Saints in Week 14, wins over the Falcons in Week 15 and the Panthers in Week 16 would mean a Week 17 victory over the Dolphins clinches the fifth straight division title that this team badly needs to salvage something out of the much-celebrated 50th season of the franchise.

Despite the Falcons coming in at 4-9 and already eliminated from playoff contention, it feels like there’s a whole lot of trepidation among Buccaneer fans heading into this one – and rightfully so. Atlanta always seems to play Tampa Bay tough these days, for one. The fact that this game is in primetime, where the Bucs have struggled both under Todd Bowles and historically, is another factor.

And then there are the creamsicle uniforms, which carry their own sort of “curse,” plus it’ll be Kirk Cousins on the other side of the field from Bowles’ defense, and that’s a scary matchup regardless of Cousins’ age or remaining ability.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

With all of that said, a win in this game could be what steers the ship back in the right direction and creates some momentum for a Tampa Bay team that has been lacking exactly that for some time now.

Now, let’s dive further into what might decide this matchup, as well as some key players to watch in this primetime matchup between division rivals:

What Might Decide This Bucs-Falcons Matchup?

More than anything, the Bucs need to come out swinging on Thursday night. They can’t afford a sluggish start like they’ve had far too often over the last two months because if they get another one of those, they’ll find themselves chasing the game all night. And that’s not a spot they want to be in. They need to come out of the gates with some urgency and actually play like this is a must-win game and a game against a four-win team. That’s an effort that takes all phases — offense, defense and, yes, special teams.

As far as the deciding factor for the offense, it may be more on the run game than Baker Mayfield at this point. Mayfield hasn’t proven capable of carrying this Buccaneer offense as of late, and with the Falcons defense being stronger against the pass than the run, this may be the type of game where the rushing attack has to get going and carry the offense forward. It’s massive news that left tackle Tristan Wirfs (oblique) isn’t carrying an injury designation into Thursday after missing last week’s game, especially now that left guard Ben Bredeson (knee) is on injured reserve.

With that said about Bucky Irving and the rest of the Tampa Bay run game, the fact remains that this offense needs a better version of Mayfield if it’s really going to start humming down the stretch. He hasn’t crossed the 200-yard passing mark in each of the last four games, and there’s plenty of blame to go around for how ineffective the passing game has been. Some of the blame belongs to Mayfield, some belongs to the receivers, and some belongs to offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard. All of them need to be better if the Bucs are going to rebound from Sunday’s loss and get to 8-6 on Thursday night.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The impending returns of Mike Evans (collarbone) and Jalen McMillan (neck) should be a breath of fresh air for Mayfield and the passing game. Not only are Evans and McMillan going to add new dimensions to the offense, but it could also open things up for Chris Godwin Jr. and take some of the weight off Emeka Egbuka’s shoulders. In fact, Egbuka may benefit the most from having some established help around him, as he’s seemingly run into the rookie wall as the weeks have gone on with him as the team’s de facto WR1.

Defensively, the Bucs have to get pressure on 37-year-old quarterback Kirk Cousins. He shredded them for 785 yards and eight touchdowns in two meetings last season, and Todd Bowles and his guys can’t let that happen again. It’s not only on the pass rush, but it starts there. Yaya Diaby, Haason Reddick and Vita Vea have to show up, and sacks from the likes of Elijah Roberts and Anthony Nelson always help, too. And hey, maybe Bowles needs to dig into his bag and pull out some of his famed pressure packages to solve Cousins and the Atlanta offense this time around.

The middle of the field was a huge problem for the Buccaneer defense last year, both against the Falcons and as a whole. And after Tyler Shough took the easy throws Tampa Bay was giving him over the middle of the field last week, that’s an area that Cousins will surely target on Thursday night. SirVocea Dennis is unlikely to play, so it’ll be on Lavonte David and a combination of Deion Jones, John Bullock and Nick Jackson to avoid getting caught flat-footed over the middle, especially with Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts Sr. (if he plays) capable of doing damage in that part of the field.

Falcons QB Kirk Cousins – Photo by: USA Today

On the Falcons’ side, the first key will be how much fight they have left in them. They’ve played a lot of teams close over the course of the season and losses in one-possession games are a big reason why they’re 4-9 and eliminated from playoff contention. But last week, they lost 37-9 to the Seahawks on their home field. They fought to a 6-6 tie heading into halftime only to have nothing left in the second half. Was that more Seattle than anything, or is it that Atlanta has simply run out of steam?

Under Kirk Cousins’ leadership, it’s hard to imagine the Falcons simply lying down. Not only that, but with playmakers like Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts Sr. (who enters the game with a “questionable” designation), Atlanta is always going to have some level of explosiveness to its offense, especially against a defense as porous as Tampa Bay’s. The one break Bowles and Co. are catching is that Drake London has already been ruled out as his knee injury continues to linger. London has done some major damage to the Bucs over the years, so that’s big news.

Perhaps the biggest question for the Falcons offense is whether Cousins, at 37 and after watching from the sidelines for most of the season, is still capable of the dominant performances he put together against the Bucs last season. If he is, this defense is plenty vulnerable and it’s not hard to imagine him picking this group apart and controlling the game. But it’s fair to wonder if that Cousins is still in there at this stage of his career. Of course, even if he isn’t, can you count on the Buccaneer defense to really take advantage of that anyway?

Getting the ball in Robinson’s hands always feels like the key to success, and if he has the special type of game that he’s capable of, that could be enough to help the offense do its part as the defense battles it out with the struggling Buccaneer offense.

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson – Photo by: USA Today

Speaking of the Atlanta defense, will it have the pieces necessary to keep up with a three-headed monsters in the Tampa Bay backfield and the four-headed monster the home team has at receiver? Containing Bucky Irving, Rachaad White and Sean Tucker is going to be a challenge for the league’s 24th-ranked run defense, and if the Bucs are back at full strength with the quarter of Evans, Godwin, Egbuka and McMillan, that could be just enough to revitalize the passing game. The Falcons can’t afford to let that happen.

Beyond all of that, pressure is the name of the game for the Falcons defense, too. Mayfield was only sacked once back in the Week 1 meeting between these two teams, with Billy Bowman Jr. and Divine Diablo teaming up for the takedown. Atlanta needs rookie pass rushers James Pearce Jr. (six sacks) and Jalon Walker (five) to come alive in this one, and it’s going to take everyone sticking to their assignments to ensure Mayfield can’t escape the pocket and pick up key first downs with his legs.

Key Players To Watch

With Mike Evans back, it’s all eyes on the Bucs’ offensive G.O.A.T., right? Evans has been out since Week 7, and getting him back for this important stretch run could be exactly what the offense needs to get things going. But still, keep an eye on Chris Godwin Jr., too. He’s begun to look a little more like himself at times in recent weeks, and after missing Week 1 against a Falcons team he usually fares well against, this is a chance for him to make up for lost time.

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

On the Buccaneer defense, the focus has to be on Antoine Winfield Jr., who tends to make big plays against Atlanta as well. He just had an interception two weeks ago against Arizona, and he’s the type of guy who can make a game-changing play at any moment, whether it’s another pick or a sack-fumble. It would be nice to see him deployed on a blitz or two, as he is still searching for just his second sack of the season.

Offensively for the Falcons, we know how dangerous Bijan Robinson is both as a runner and a pass-catcher. Remember, the Bucs saw it again for themselves when he took a short pass 50 yards for an easy touchdown against them back in Week 1. The Bucs linebackers are going to have to be on it in this game, as you can bet Atlanta will look to go right after them early and perhaps often if it’s proving fruitful.

On the Atlanta defense, how about the rookie campaigns that Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. are having? Both first-round picks by the Falcons earlier this year, the former SEC standouts are looking the part thus far in their first NFL seasons. Walker, a former Georgia star, has five sacks, 21 pressures and two forced fumbles. Meanwhile, Pearce, the Tennessee product, has six sacks and 33 pressures to lead the team. Walker only had one pressure against Tampa Bay back in Week 1, but Pearce had four. The Buccaneer tackles need to be at their best against these upstart rookies.