BUCS vs. JAGUARS

WHEN: Sunday, December 24, 2023 | WHERE: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL) | KICKOFF: 4:05 p.m. ET | TV: CBS

PLAY-BY-PLAY: Kevin Harlan | ANALYST: Trent Green | SIDELINE: Melanie Collins

RADIO: 98 ROCK 97.9 FM | PLAY-BY-PLAY: Gene Deckerhoff | ANALYST: Dave Moore | SIDELINE: T.J. Rives

Game day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report staff to make its weekly game predictions and offer up our game preview of this week’s matchup. Let us know what you think in the article comments section and add your prediction, too.

Scott Reynolds: Bucs’ Momentum Is Real With Fourth Straight Win

The Bucs have won three straight games and have a hot quarterback right now in Baker Mayfield, who is coming off the best game of his career in last week’s win at Green Bay. The Jaguars have lost three straight games and have a hurt quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, who is in concussion protocol and has an ankle sprain. Tampa Bay’s offense has scored 21, 29 and 34 points in the last three weeks and scoring is trending upward.

Bucs RT Tristan Wirfs – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

For the first time this season, I think the Bucs score 30 points or more in back-to-back games. Making sure outside linebackers Josh Allen and Travon Walker don’t wreck the game is of utmost importance for offensive tackles Luke Goedeke and Tristan Wirfs, who both struggled some in Green Bay last week.

Tampa Bay’s defense needs to get a more steady pass rush and someone on the front four needs to step up and start winning consistently. The likely candidates are rookies Calijah Kancey and YaYa Diaby, but perhaps Shaq Barrett can channel his old self and bring a Shaq attack out on Christmas Eve. The Jaguars may be without Trevor Lawrence, but tight end Evan Engram, wide receiver Calvin Ridley and running back Travis Etienne are still formidable weapons who must be taken seriously.

Having this game at home at Raymond James Stadium on Christmas Eve is huge. With back-to-back road wins, the Christmas Eve crowd of Pewter People should be very enthusiastic about the team’s momentum and give the home team a dose of adrenaline throughout Sunday evening. The Bucs deliver an early Christmas present and improve to 8-7.

REYNOLDS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 30, Jaguars 17
REYNOLDS’ SEASON RECORD: 9-5

Matt Matera: Bucs Take Advantage Of Injured Jaguars

The Bucs and Jaguars couldn’t be going any further in different directions. Tampa Bay has won three in a row and look to take full control of the division after the Saints lost on Thursday. Jacksonville has lost three straight, including two games to backup quarterbacks. They have a three-way tie in its division with a crucial game coming up. Both teams are jockeying for better position and this may come down to a war of attrition.

Bucs OLB Shaq Barrett and DT Calijah Kancey and Falcons QB Desmond Ridder – Photo by: USA Today

Regardless of whether or not Trevor Lawrence can play this weekend, the Jaguars are banged up at a lot of positions. Wide receiver Christian Kirk is out for the year and they have a struggling interior offensive line along with some backups in the secondary. Even if Lawrence plays, he’s not 100%. I think we’re in for a huge game from Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey as they eat up on the Jags’ interior offensive line. They’ll be able to stop the run and set up plenty of third and longs. Lawrence is mobile, but is definitely slower as he’s also dealing with an ankle injury. Vea or Kancey will record a sack in this game. Book it.

Has any quarterback been talked about more this week than Baker Mayfield? He’s been getting a lot of attention, and deservingly so. Offensive coordinator Dave Canales has received a great amount as well. While I don’t think they can repeat exactly what they did against the Packers, that doesn’t mean they can’t have another top-notch performance. Canales has been able to scheme guys open and Mayfield has made the proper reads with better throws. The Bucs don’t need to reinvent the wheel, so I see plenty of touches for Rachaad White and a touchdown for Mike Evans against a hobbled secondary.

A big matchup to pay attention to is left tackle Tristan Wirfs against edge rusher Josh Allen. Typically, Allen lines up on the right side to face the opposing left tackle on the blind side. It’ll be a battle of good on good and if Wirfs does his job as per usual, the Bucs will win this game.

MATERA’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 25, Jaguars 15
MATERA’S SEASON RECORD: 8-6

Bailey Adams: Bucs Keep Riding High On Christmas Eve

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs have managed to turn their season around in the last three weeks, going from 4-7 and lifeless to 7-7 and primed for another divisional crown. They just need to take care of business down the stretch, and that means making it four straight wins by beating the Jaguars at Raymond James Stadium on Christmas Eve.

This was already a matchup between two teams going in opposite directions, as Tampa Bay has won three straight and Jacksonville has lost three in a row. So there might’ve already been some good vibes surrounding this game for Todd Bowles’ team.

But now, this is a game that should favor the Bucs. Tampa Bay is as healthy as it could be right now, while Jacksonville is the opposite. The big injury is quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who looks set to miss the game due to being in concussion protocol. That leaves C.J. Beathard under center for Jacksonville. He’s 2-10 in his career as a starter and hasn’t started a game since 2020.

Now, Tampa Bay has made backups look like Joe Montana before and there have been quite a few unlikely backup quarterback heroes across the league this year. Plus, Evan Engram, Calvin Ridley and Travis Etienne Jr. are all still big-play threats. But I like Bowles and his defense to take care of business here, even if “taking care of business” for the 2023 defense no longer means what it used to.

Where I’m even more confident these days is on the other side of the ball with Dave Canales’ offense. Baker Mayfield is coming off of a 381-yard, four-touchdown performance that saw him rack up some weekly awards this week. Chris Godwin is coming off his best game of the season. Mike Evans caught his 11th touchdown last week and is closing in on his own and the franchise’s single-season bests. And Rachaad White has blossomed into one of the best dual-threat running backs in the league in recent weeks.

I think the other factor worth noting is that Tampa Bay gets to play this Christmas Eve game at home. Now, it’s not as if Jacksonville is coming from across the country and having its holiday disrupted the way Bowles’ team did last year when it had to play at Arizona on Christmas Day. But there could be something to the fact that the Bucs are home for the holidays.

With the Saints’ loss on Thursday night, the Bucs need a win over the Jaguars to set up a clinching scenario when New Orleans comes to town next week. And I think they do it, winning their fourth straight thanks to another big offensive day and sending the Bucs fans and Pewter People into Christmas Day with an extra gift.

ADAMS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 31, Jaguars 21
ADAMS’ SEASON RECORD: 7-7

Josh Queipo: Bucs Continue To Over-Perform Expectations With Win Over Bruised Jags

The Bucs are riding high on a three-game winning streak that includes victories over two divisional rivals. With New Orleans losing on Thursday night, a win over the Jags would all but secure a division crown for Tampa Bay. And to add to the Bucs’ good fortunes, they will be taking on a Jacksonville team that will be without their starting quarterback and their top receiver. The Jaguars offense has been off all year even with the supremely talented Trevor Lawrence at the helm.

Looking at the bones of this matchup even if we are assuming health for the Jaguars, it bodes well for the Bucs. The Jaguars run game is actually WORSE than the improving Tampa Bay ground game. And Jacksonville will face a Bucs run defense that is fourth-best in the NFL. The Jaguars’ 18th-ranked passing attack could gain some explosives on a Bucs defense that is now dead last in passing chunk plays allowed.

The Bucs have now allowed THE MOST explosive passing plays in the league, averaging over 4/game. https://t.co/BfG0kikW8L

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) December 19, 2023

On offense, Tampa Bay’s now ninth-ranked air attack should be able to move the ball against a talented but inconsistent Jaguars defense. The key here will be how well the Bucs’ tackle duo can fare against Josh Allen and Trayvon Walker and if they can provide Baker Mayfield with time to throw. Jacksonville loves to play with single high safeties, playing in cover-1 or cover-3 about 52% of the time. That bodes well for Mayfield, who has eaten both coverages all year long. And Rachaad White and the run game will have room to move against a good, but not great Jaguars defensive front.

But again, all of that was presumptive of health for Jacksonville, which is something they are in short supply of. C.J. Beathard has been an underwhelming backup for his career, and while the Bucs may suffer from the “curse of the backup,” I can’t find a logical reason they should lose this game.

QUEIPO’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 27, Jaguars 14
QUEIPO’S SEASON RECORD: 9-5

Adam Slivon: Bucs Continue Changing Narrative, Take Over NFC South

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

This is the reason why they play the games. Sitting now at 7-7, the Bucs have quickly shifted their story from one of despair to one of hope.

No one expected them to start 3-1, nor did many foresee them losing their next six out of seven games. A three-game winning streak has propelled them to this point, and they will continue their ride with a favorable matchup coming against the Jaguars.

If you were to ask me before the season started what I’d predict for Sunday, I would have said the Bucs would lose to a playoff-bound Jacksonville squad. Current circumstances have changed my thoughts. It appears unlikely that the Bucs will face Trevor Lawrence, and C.J. Beathard is a significant downgrade. While they have playmakers on offense, the Jaguars’ offensive line has been below average and is banged up on the left side. This gives Tampa Bay an opportunity to capitalize, but they still will have to contain the likes of Travis Etienne Jr., Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram no matter who is throwing the football.

On defense, the Jaguars have struggled against the pass and they head into town to face reigning NFC Offensive Player of the Week Baker Mayfield. With that said, I expect the Bucs to come out firing and have success, but it will come down to limiting turnovers. The away version of Baker Mayfield has been great (18 touchdowns to 3 interceptions), but the home version has struggled (6 touchdowns to 5 interceptions). With Josh Allen and Travon Walker up front applying pressure, Tampa Bay’s offensive line will have its hands full limiting them and giving Mayfield enough time to get his feet down and fire.

Earlier in the year, Dave Canales mentioned that he would not simplify the offense because by the time the end of the season rolled around, guys would have the little things down and be in a rhythm. It worked last week, and I expect the Bucs to do to enough to hold off a slumping Jaguars team and get above .500.

SLIVON’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 27, Jaguars 17
SLIVON’S SEASON RECORD: 10-4