Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The 3-1 Bucs are coming off a bye week rested and ready to take on a big challenge with the 4-1 Detroit Lions coming to town for the creamsicle throwback game. The Lions dispatched the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, 42-24, behind a big day from Jared Goff, who threw three touchdowns and ran for another.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

The Bucs had a nice win in New Orleans, beating the Saints, 26-9, before the bye week. The 26 points scored by Tampa Bay was the highest point production yet for Dave Canales’ offense, while Todd Bowles’ defense held New Orleans out of the end zone for the fewest points allowed this season. After getting stuffed by the Eagles on Monday Night Football, the Bucs got their running game going against the Saints, rushing for 114 yards.

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay’s ground game has been inconsistent this year and will face a stiff challenge from Detroit, which has the third-best rushing defense in the league, allowing just 68.4 yards per game. The Lions boast a big and very physical defense led by second-year defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. They do a tremendous job of gang tackling in run defense and getting after the quarterback. All three starting linebackers have sacks and can blitz at any time. This will be an opportunity for Tampa Bay’s offensive line to redeem itself after struggling at home against a similarly good Philadelphia defense three weeks ago.

Lions quarterback Jared Goff is playing great football with nine touchdown passes and just three interceptions. He’s currently Pro Football Focus’ top-rated QB, and is one of the best in the league at play-action fakes. The Lions want to run the ball with David Montgomery and establish balance on offense. That’s where Goff thrives as a passer. Tampa Bay’s defense has done a good job creating pressure and posting sacks, as well as taking the ball away. That must continue after the bye week, as the Bucs are 3-0 when winning the turnover battle this year.

What’s At Stake For The Lions

Detroit is one of the best and hottest teams in the league this year with a 4-1 start. The Lions are in sole possession of first place in the NFC North, and the team’s only loss came in overtime against Seattle. Detroit started the season with a 21-20 upset at Kansas City against Patrick Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champions. The Lions have won three straight since their loss to Seattle, and their 42-24 dismantling of the winless Panthers has only bolstered their confidence heading into Sunday’s game against the Bucs.

Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson – Photo by: USA Today

The Lions have shown they can beat good teams already on the road with wins against the Chiefs and Packers. Head coach Dan Campbell has his team believing in itself, while coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn have the offense and defense humming right now. This Bucs vs. Lions game will be a good early-season measuring stick for both teams.

After just missing the playoffs last year with a 9-8 record, the Lions seem to be on a mission to make the postseason for the first time since 2016. Detroit is looking for its first playoff win since 1991. A win against the Bucs would go a long way toward a playoff run, as the Lions would collect another victory over an NFC team – and perhaps another team challenging for a playoff spot or squaring off for playoff positioning.

The Bucs Win If…

Tampa Bay used the bye week to get healthy as head coach Todd Bowles gave his team the entire week off to rest. The Bucs should be at or near full strength, which means the return of rookies Calijah Kancey and SirVocea Dennis, plus veteran stars Mike Evans and Jamel Dean. Because the Lions are formidable on both sides of the ball, the Bucs will have to bring their “A” game on Sunday in all three phases to win. Tampa Bay has been perfect when it wins the turnover battle and is currently plus-7 in turnover margin. That has to continue for the Bucs to improve to 4-1.

Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Offensively, this is a gut check game for the offensive line. Philadelphia dominated in the trenches three weeks ago and stifled Tampa Bay’s ground game. The Bucs offensive line needs to prove it can produce yards on the ground against even stingy run defenses like the Lions’, which boasts the third-best unit in the league. Quarterback Baker Mayfield is coming off a three-touchdown performance in New Orleans and might need to replicate that against a high-powered Lions attack that averages 29.6 points per game, which ranks fourth in the league.

Tampa Bay’s red zone defense ranks second-best in the league, allowing touchdowns just 27.3% of the time. Conversely, Detroit’s red zone offense ranks tied for seventh in the league at 63.2%. Holding Detroit’s offense to field goals or creating red zone takeaways will be paramount to Tampa Bay’s success on Sunday. And the Bucs need to convert better than their 50% average in the red zone on offense. The team that is forced to kick the most field goals on Sunday will lose.

The Lions Win If…

Detroit puts up touchdowns on offense, evidenced by six TDs in last week’s 42-24 demolition of Carolina. Averaging nearly 30 points per game, the Lions wouldn’t mind getting into a shootout with the Bucs, who have only scored more than 20 points on offense in just one game this year, which was two weeks ago at New Orleans. Detroit simply has more firepower and more experience than Tampa Bay’s offense has right now. If the Lions can get into the red zone and continue scoring touchdowns at a 63% clip, they’ll easily move to 5-1 on the year.

Lions QB Jared Goff – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs rely on winning the turnover battle, so pressuring quarterback Baker Mayfield into mistakes will be huge for Dan Campbell’s team. The Lions have a game-wrecker in Aidan Hutchinson, but other Detroit defenders will need to step up and blitz Mayfield with an extra defender, as the Bucs have been quite good in pass protection so far. Once Mayfield is pressured, the Lions will need to wrap up, as he has proven to be quite slippery and elusive of sacks early in the year.

On defense, the Bucs struggled to stop the Eagles’ rushing attack three weeks ago. Philadelphia gashed Tampa Bay for 201 yards on the ground and that wore out the Bucs defense, which didn’t have much gas left in the tank to successfully rush the passer. Jalen Hurts was only sacked once as a result. Detroit would love to copy that recipe for success with a 100-yard game from David Montgomery on the ground. That would really open up the play-action passing game and allow Jared Goff to flourish.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs RT Luke Goedeke vs. Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson

Luke Goedeke has been one of the best stories during the Bucs’ 3-1 start to the 2023 season. He looks like a completely different – and better – player since moving from left guard where he struggled as a rookie to right tackle where he played at Central Michigan. Goedeke has given up just one sack this season, which was in Week 1 to Pro Bowler Danielle Hunter. But that sack was actually on Baker Mayfield, who backed in to the Minnesota pass rusher.

Bucs RT Luke Goedeke – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

After shutting down Cam Jordan, who has been a thorn in the side of the Bucs for years, in New Orleans before the bye week, Goedeke will face perhaps his toughest test in Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. Detroit’s first-round pick last year was the runner-up for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year with 9.5 sacks and an astounding three interceptions. This year, he’s off to a hot start with 4.5 sacks and an interception, which he collected last week against Carolina’s Bryce Young at the line of scrimmage.

Hutchinson is a beast at 6-foot-7, 268 pounds. He’s long and strong and surprisingly agile for a player his size. Hutchinson leads the league with 35 pressures after registering eight pressures and a sack in last week’s win over the Panthers. Goedeke has the strength to match up against Hutchinson, but does he have the motor? Hutchinson’s relentless energy has worn down offensive tackles before. If Goedeke can somehow make Hutchinson a non-factor on Sunday, it will be his most impressive outing to date. Easier said than done, though.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs Defense vs. Lions TE Sam LaPorta

There is no doubt that the Bucs need to really shut down the Lions ground game, which features the hard-nosed running of David Montgomery. And getting pressure on Jared Goff, who is one of the hottest QBs in the league right now, is a given. So let’s focus on an individual matchup that could really determine the game’s outcome: Tampa Bay’s defense vs. Detroit rookie tight end Sam LaPorta. The Lions’ second-round pick has 25 catches for 289 yards and three touchdowns and has been an instant impact player in Detroit.

Lions TE Sam LaPorta – Photo by: USA Today

LaPorta is coming off a four-catch, 47-yard performance against Carolina in which he caught two touchdowns. He’s a fast, dynamic receiving tight end in the mold of Travis Kelce, George Kittle and T.J. Hockenson. LaPorta has a catch of 30 yards or more in each of the last three games and has rapidly developed into a reliable playmaker for Goff. He’ll be a problem for Tampa Bay’s defense on Sunday.

The Bucs loved LaPorta coming out of Iowa, but he was off the draft board by the time Tampa Bay selected and went with offensive lineman Cody Mauch instead. In the past, the Bucs have struggled to contain tight ends, but have done a remarkable job against them this year. Hockenson was held to 35 yards on eight catches in Week 1, while Chicago’s Cole Kmet had just 38 yards on four catches the following week. Philadelphia’s Dallas Goedert had 45 yards on five catches in Week 3, followed by Tampa Bay’s defense holding Taysom Hill to one catch for seven yards in New Orleans and shutting out Jimmy Graham.