Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss, and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

Tampa Bay is now 7-9 after four straight losses to New Orleans, Atlanta, Carolina and Miami. Despite going 1-7 since the bye week and being guaranteed a losing record this season, the Bucs still have a chance to win the NFC South by beating the 8-8 Panthers on Saturday at Raymond James Stadium and having the Saints upset the Falcons in Atlanta on Sunday. However, if Tampa Bay loses to Carolina, then the Panthers will win the division with a 9-8 record, while the Bucs will finish the season with a disappointing 7-10 record after a 6-2 start.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs?

For the 7-9 Buccaneers, Week 18 is the team’s final chance to win a game that could win the franchise its fifth straight NFC South crown and fourth straight under head coach Todd Bowles. After a 6-2 start, the team is in a free fall, losing seven of its last eight games since the bye week. Thanks to the Falcons’ upset of the Rams on Monday Night Football, the Bucs no longer control their own destiny.

Tampa Bay needs to beat Carolina on Saturday – and have New Orleans win at Atlanta on Sunday due to a tiebreaker scenario that would kick in with the Bucs, Panthers and Falcons all being 8-9. If that occurs, Carolina wins the NFC South – even if it loses in Tampa Bay on Saturday.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles and Panthers HC Dave Canales – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Bob Donnan

The Bucs had multiple opportunities to avoid this mess, but four straight losses to the Saints, Falcons, Panthers and Dolphins proved to be costly. Now at 7-9, the Bucs are guaranteed to finish with a losing season for the second time in four years under Bowles – regardless of whether they ultimately win the division or not. And because of that, Bowles is very unpopular with Tampa Bay fans and is very much on the hot seat.

Why have the Bucs collapsed down the stretch? Because this team does not do anything well right now. Despite having weapons like Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan and Bucky Irving return from injury, Tampa Bay’s offense has regressed and has averaged just 21.6 points per game over the last three weeks. Defensively, the Bucs can’t rush the passer and have frequent coverage busts. Special teams just continue to be a disaster on a weekly basis.

What’s At Stake For The Panthers?

A win over the Bucs on Saturday at Raymond James Stadium would not only be a series sweep of Tampa Bay by Carolina, but would also deliver the NFC South title to Dave Canales and his upstart Panthers. A victory would give Carolina a winning record at 9-8, and represent a four-win improvement over last year’s 5-12 team in Canales’ first season.

Panthers HC Dave Canales – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Jim Dedmon

More importantly, winning the NFC South would deliver a home playoff game in the Wild Card round to Carolina and allow Canales and his team the opportunity to win back-to-back games, which is something that hasn’t happened since Weeks 6-7. That’s right, the Panthers have embarked on a see-saw streak of win-loss over the past 10 weeks. Carolina’s last win came against Tampa Bay two weeks ago, followed by a loss to Seattle. So if the pattern holds true, the Panthers beat the Bucs on Saturday.

Saturday is undoubtedly the Panthers’ biggest game of the year, and the team already has a quality road win to draw from this year, winning at Green Bay in a 16-13 victory over the Packers. The Panthers also won an overtime game at Atlanta, 30-27, back in Week 11. But Carolina has not fared too well on the road this year, evidenced by a 3-4 record away from home.

The Bucs Win If…

If the 7-9 Bucs want to raise another NFC South banner, the formula on Saturday has to revolve around execution and avoiding penalties and self-inflicted wounds. Offensively, Tampa Bay needs a way more balanced attack than it has had over the past two games where the Bucs ran the ball too much at Carolina and threw it too much at Miami. The result was 20 points against the Panthers and just 17 points versus the Dolphins.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: IMAGN – Jim Dedmon

Baker Mayfield must play a clean game and avoid interceptions as the team is 7-1 when he avoids throwing a pick and 0-8 when he has an INT. The Bucs would be wise to give more carries to Rachaad White and Sean Tucker and have a more balanced rushing attack as Bucky Irving has yet to average four yards per carry in any game since he returned from injury six weeks ago.

Defensively, somehow, some way Todd Bowles’ unit must get back to taking the ball away. The Bucs defense has just two takeaways in the last three games as Tampa Bay has been minus-5 in the turnover margin during that span. The Bucs did a relatively good job of slowing down Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard in the last meeting against the Panthers, but gave up 73 yards and a key touchdown right before halftime to star rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan. Tampa Bay’s defense must tackle better and figure out a way to pressure Bryce Young into some mistakes and sacks.

The Panthers Win If…

Carolina must create a clean pocket for Bryce Young and give him time to find targets like first-round pick Tetairoa McMillan in the passing game. Head coach and offensive play-caller Dave Canales must target a wounded Bucs secondary that will be without Zyon McCollum, Jamel Dean and possibly Benjamin Morrison on Sunday. McMillan should receive plenty of targets on Saturday, but Canales must make sure the offensive attack is balanced with carries from Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard to wear the Bucs defense down.

Bucs WR Mike Evans, Panthers DB Lathan Ransom – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Bob Donnan

Carolina’s defense needs to force turnovers – specifically interceptions, as Tampa Bay is 0-8 this year when Baker Mayfield throws a pick. A fourth quarter interception in Carolina helped the Panthers beat the Bucs, 23-20 back in Week 16. Blitzing inside linebacker Christian Rozeboom up the middle rattled Mayfield in the last meeting and resulted in a sack. The Panthers should dial up some more blitzes for Rozeboom on Sunday.

The Bucs ran the ball effectively against the Panthers in the last meeting, so Rozeboom and defensive tackles A’Shawn Robinson and Derrick Brown need to do a better job of stuffing the interior run on Saturday. If the Panthers can take away the run and make the Bucs offense one-dimensional it could force Mayfield into some mistakes.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs WR Mike Evans vs. Panthers CB Jaycee Horn

If Tampa Bay is going to beat Carolina on Saturday and have a chance at another NFC South division title, it will need a big game from star receiver Mike Evans. Evans has touchdown catches in back-to-back games at Carolina and at Miami, as well as having a 100-yard game in his first game back from a broken clavicle in Week 15 against Atlanta. Evans had a quiet game in Carolina back in Week 16 as Tampa Bay’s offensive game plan was to run the ball over 30 times. While that was achieved, the Bucs offense lacked explosive plays as a result and only scored 20 points in a 23-20 loss.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Bob Donnan

Evans had five catches versus the Panthers, but only 31 yards and a touchdown. However that touchdown didn’t come against Jaycee Horn, who is Carolina’s best defensive back. Horn just made his second straight Pro Bowl after leading the team with five interceptions along with eight passes defensed. The Panthers would be wise to match up Horn on Evans as often as possible on Saturday to neutralize Tampa Bay’s best weapon.

With Evans turning 33 next year and seeing his 1,000-yard receiving streak of 11 years come to an end this year due to injuries, this could be his final game in a Bucs uniform. Evans is not under contract in 2026, but the team would surely welcome him back next year if he decides to play a 13th season. On a team with several talented wide receivers, the future Hall of Famer is still the best of the bunch despite being the oldest.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs Secondary vs. Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan

Tampa Bay struggled to slow down Carolina rookie wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan in the last meeting. The Panthers’ first-round pick hauled in six passes for 73 yards and one touchdown, which came right before halftime to give Carolina the lead. McMillan beat veteran cornerback Jamel Dean to the back of the end zone to haul in a 22-yard fade pass that proved to be a gut punch from which the Bucs didn’t recover.

Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan – Photo by: IMAGN – Jim Dedmon

At 6-foot-5, McMillan presents a matchup problem, and the Bucs will be without their two tallest cornerbacks as Zyon McCollum is on injured reserve and Dean is not expected to play due to a shoulder injury that sidelined him in the second half of last week’s game at Miami. Rookie cornerback Benjamin Morrison has dealt with hamstring issues all season and is now limited with another recurring hamstring injury. He may or may not be able to play on Saturday.

If Morrison can’t go – or can’t finish the game – the Bucs secondary could be in dire straits. Rookie Jacob Parrish may be forced to play outside again, but at 5-foot-10, he’s at a serious size disadvantage against the taller McMillan. Kindle Vildor lacks ideal size at 5-foot-10 as well. McMillan was held to just one catch for five yards in last week’s loss at Seattle, and has 66 catches for 929 yards (14.1 avg.) and seven touchdowns on the season. He’s considered to be the landing candidate for this year’s NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.