BUCS vs. SAINTS

WHEN: Sunday, January 5, 2025 | WHERE: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL) | KICKOFF: 1:00 p.m. ET | TV: FOX

PLAY-BY-PLAY: Kevin Burkhardt | ANALYST: Tom Brady | SIDELINE: Erin Andrews & Tom Rinaldi

RADIO: 98 ROCK 97.9 FM | PLAY-BY-PLAY: Gene Deckerhoff | ANALYST: Dave Moore | SIDELINE: T.J. Rives

Game day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report staff to make its weekly game predictions and offer up our game preview of this week’s matchup. Let us know what you think in the article comments section and add your prediction, too.

Scott Reynolds: Bucs Sweep The Saints, Win The NFC South Again

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay beat an overmatched Carolina team, 48-14, last week to regain the lead in the NFC South. This week, the Bucs have the chance to do the same thing – beat the 5-11 Saints – to win the division for a fourth straight season, including the last three under head coach Todd Bowles. Remember that Tampa Bay was down at New Orleans back in Week 6, 27-24, but then stormed back to win 51-27 with a 24-0 shutout in the second half. I expect the Bucs offense to continue to roll and put up 40 points or more for the fourth time this season.

There are plenty of contract incentives to hit for quarterback Baker Mayfield and wide receiver Mike Evans in Week 18. I don’t expect offensive coordinator Liam Coen to take his foot off the gas on Sunday. With 37 points the Bucs would break the all-time scoring mark set by Tom Brady and the 2021 team of 511 points. That’s attainable and I think it’s a quiet goal of Coen and Co. on Sunday.

Todd Bowles defense has played much better since the bye week, especially in the second half of games where Tampa Bay has allowed a total of just 23 points, including only six in the last four games and none last week versus Carolina. Without Derek Carr, Taysom Hill, Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave, the focus will be on stopping running back Alvin Kamara. I think that happens and Tampa Bay sweeps the Saints en route to winning 10 wins games this year.

REYNOLDS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 41, Saints 14
REYNOLDS’ SEASON RECORD: 9-7

Matt Matera: Bucs Steamroll Saints

Bucs WR Mike Evans Photo by: USA Today

As many of us have discussed this season, the only thing that can get in the way of the Bucs is the Bucs. This is a team that is coming off of scoring at least 40 points in two of their last three games, and they’re about to play an opponent whom the Bucs dropped 51 points on earlier this season for the most that they’ve scored in a game. Tampa Bay can win the division, Baker Mayfield is playing exceptionally well, and Mike Evans has a chance to reach 1,000 yards for the 11th straight year. Everyone will be motivated.

All the Bucs have to make sure that they don’t do is turn the ball over. They hardly punt the ball anymore, so the only way the Saints can get good field position is via the turnover. They’re players on defense are older, so Mayfield just has to make sure he doesn’t make the kind of mistakes that are easily avoidable.

Hopefully Tampa Bay can continue the pass rush that was looking good in their last game. I’m curious to see if Shaq Barrett will make his season debut, or if Chris Braswell will get rewarded with a little more playing time after his strip sack. A slight concern could be had with Josh Hayes playing at corner for Jamel Dean, especially with the speed of Marquez Valdez-Scantling and the possibility that Chris Olave returns, but quarterback Spencer Rattler has had his struggles when playing. Regardless, it should be a celebratory mood when it’s done with the Bucs being division champs again and going to the postseason.

MATERA’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 35, Saints 14
MATERA’S SEASON RECORD: 10-6

Bailey Adams: Bucs Take Care Of Business, Win NFC South Again

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: USA Today

Can they really do it again? Can the Bucs turn a 4-6 record into an NFC South title on the final day of the regular season the same way they turned a 4-7 record into an NFC South title on the final day of the 2023 regular season? I think so.

Tampa Bay has everything to play for and New Orleans has nothing to play for. That can be a dangerous proposition in some cases, but I think Todd Bowles will have this team ready to take care of business the way it did last week against the Panthers. I like the Bucs to get out to a hot start and not look back.

Baker Mayfield and the offense are just clicking right now. Mayfield is on the verge of his 40th passing touchdown, while Mike Evans is on the verge of another 1,000-yard season and has 11 touchdowns this season despite missing three games with a hamstring injury. Jalen McMillan has caught a touchdown in each of the last four games and has six in that span, while the offensive line is dominating in the run game and creating plenty of lanes for 1,000-yard rusher Bucky Irving and Rachaad White.

I think the offense will be at its best again on Sunday against a Saints team it scored 44 points and ran for 277 yards against back in Week 6. The key to winning has been scoring first this season, as the Bucs are 9-1 in games in which they score first. Getting an opening-drive touchdown in this one would seem to be a good omen for Liam Coen’s group.

Defensively, I think the Bucs will play a similar game to the one they had against the Panthers last week, especially if it’s Spencer Rattler they’ll be facing. Derek Carr (hand) and Alvin Kamara (groin) were both still out of practice on Thursday, and if neither can go, this isn’t a Saints offense that can keep up with what the Bucs are doing on offense – even against an iffy Tampa Bay defense.

The Bucs have been in playoff mode since the bye week, and I think they’ll be up to the task come Sunday afternoon. I have them winning big, improving to 6-1 since the bye and riding into the playoffs at 10-7 – the record that every Pewter Reporter predicted them to have back in September.

ADAMS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 34, Saints 13
ADAMS’ SEASON RECORD: 11-5

Josh Queipo: Bucs Win In Convincing Fashion

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

After shellacking the Panthers, the Bucs sit in the driver’s seat of the NFC South. And facing a struggling opponent with a quarterback who has failed to show significant growth this season while at home is just what the doctor ordered for a Bucs team looking to take the next step in the playoffs after a four-year hiatus from the NFC Championship game.

Spencer Rattler, for all of the potential, has shown why he was a fifth-round draft pick. That is no knock on him, he needs time to adjust to the NFL. But a rookie who struggles against the blitz is going to face one of the blitz-happiest teams in the league. And the New Orleans offensive line, which has struggled to pass protect this season is going to have to try and keep him clean. I don’t buy their ability to do so. The Saints will try and mitigate those factors by running the ball, but the Bucs’ run defense is improving and should be able to dispatch with that strategy quickly.

On the other side of the ball, the Saints are one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, Sean Tucker and Tampa Bay’s offensive line should have no trouble setting the terms of this game early. And the best part? If the run game gets going early, it should open up the play action game to allow Mike Evans to rack up the 85 yards needed to get him to his record-setting goal in relatively few touches. This should be a route similar to the last time these two teams met in week five. Let’s just hope the Bucs’ second quarter woes don’t make it more interesting than it needs to be.

QUEIPO’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 45, Saints 6
QUEIPO’S SEASON RECORD: 9-7

Adam Slivon: Bucs Have No Problem Finishing Regular Season On A High Note

Bucs WR Mike Evans, RB Bucky Irving and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

You blink and it’s over. We have already reached the conclusion of the 2024 NFL regular season whether you can believe it or not. After many Sundays of predicting games, it all comes down to the Bucs and Saints facing off in Week 18.

For Tampa Bay, they are sitting at 9-7 they just need to win to get in the playoffs for the fifth straight year. To do so means beating a New Orleans squad that has seen better days. While Pewter Report took the time to preview this matchup on the most recent Pewter Report Podcast, there are not a lot of positives to discuss when looking over a Saints’ team battered with injuries and declining play. 

Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara, and Kendre Miller could all be out on offense, while Chris Olave is working his way back from a head injury and has not played since early November. Even if Olave returns, his recent numbers against the Bucs have not been great.

Defensively, veterans Demario Davis, Tyrann Mathieu, and Cam Jordan have each lost a step from their respective peaks. The defensive line has the best chance of affecting things and is led by Carl Granderson, Chase Young, and Bryan Bresee, but they are also facing a stout offensive line led by newly named Pro Bowler Tristan Wirfs that should neutralize their impact.

The Bucs offense put up 51 points against the Saints back in Week 6 and is coming off a Week 17 performance where they lit up the Panthers to the tune of 48 points. They may not reach those lofty totals on Sunday afternoon, but they should have no problem putting away their NFC South division rival.

Playing at home with a lot on the line, expect a lot of energy and for the offense to get out to an early lead with Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, and a highly motivated Mike Evans at Liam Coen’s disposal. From there, Todd Bowles’ defense should be able to do what it likes against Spencer Rattler and Co. to put the finishing touches on a double-digit win season.

SLIVON’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 30, Saints 13
SLIVON’S SEASON RECORD: 10-6