Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The Bucs improved to 8-7 following a convincing 30-12 win against the slumping Jaguars and have maintained their lead in the NFC South. The New Orleans Saints fell to 7-8 after losing at Los Angeles, 30-22, on Thursday Night Football and are now a game behind Tampa Bay. Both teams are in playoff contention for the division title and a Wild Card playoff spot entering Week 17.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Matt Matera/PR

It’s simple for the surging Bucs, who have won four games in a row. A win over the Saints means a third straight NFC South title for Tampa Bay. And it would also mean that Tampa Bay has swept New Orleans for a second straight year under head coach Todd Bowles, who is coaching for his life as an NFL head coach after an 8-9 record and a first-round playoff exit in 2022.

Getting a ninth win this season would be a one-game improvement over a year ago, and perhaps more importantly, a fifth-straight victory since the team was 4-7 just after midseason would give Tampa Bay some much needed momentum heading into a Week 18 game at Carolina and then a home playoff game. If the Bucs get to 10 wins and/or a playoff win at home, it’s all but assured that Bowles and offensive coordinator Dave Canales would return next season.

Should the team win five out of its last six games or finish the 2023 regular season on a six-game winning streak, the Bucs would be a team that no one would want to play in Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round. But first things first – the Bucs need to beat the Saints in order for that scenario to come to fruition.

What’s At Stake For The Saints

Saints head coach Dennis Allen – Photo by: USA Today

With a 7-8 record, New Orleans has struggled to really build any momentum this this year. The Saints haven’t won more than two games in a row at any point this season and have had three stretches where the team has suffered back-to-back losses, including a three-game losing streak in November.

New Orleans hasn’t been above .500 since beating New England on October 8 to improve to 3-2 on the season. After back-to-back wins at home against Carolina and the New York Giants got the team back to .500 with a 7-7 record, the Saints got crushed on Thursday Night Football, 30-22, by the Rams out in Los Angeles.

Like Todd Bowles in Tampa, Saints head coach Dennis Allen is under fire to produce a winning season in New Orleans. Allen, the Saints’ defensive coordinator, was promoted to replace Sean Payton, who retired in 2022. Allen went 7-10 in his first season as head coach and is currently mired in a 7-8 record. A loss on Sunday at Tampa Bay would assure the Saints of another losing season, and that could prompt his firing at the end of the year unless New Orleans wins at Raymond James Stadium.

The Bucs Win If…

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay has won four straight games because of improved play by the offense. The Bucs have averaged 114 yards per game on the ground over the last six weeks and have scored no fewer than 20 points per game as a result. The reason why the offense is putting more points on the scoreboard is because with a balanced attack, the Bucs offense is less predictable and teams can’t sit back in a Cover 2 shell and just focus on double-teaming Mike Evans in the passing game.

As the Bucs have scored more points, and the team has averaged 26 points per game over the last six weeks, it has allowed Todd Bowles’ defense to play with a lead lately. Bowles has called his defensive plays more aggressively as a result. And the added benefit of an improved ground game has been keeping Tampa Bay’s defense off the field and well rested for the fourth quarter.

So the Bucs need to keep it up. Run the ball, use play action, get an early lead and let the defense play aggressively. This approach has led to sacks and takeaways on defense as the wins have piled up. We first saw this style of complementary football play out in New Orleans in a 26-9 win in Week 4. That’s been the same recipe for success lately in the month of December in Tampa Bay, too.

The Saints Win If…

Bucs OLB Shaq Barrett and Saints QB Derek Carr – Photo by: USA Today

Quarterback Derek Carr has played well lately, even in New Orleans’ recent loss at Los Angeles where he threw three touchdowns and one interception. But Carr has to play flawlessly on Sunday to beat a hot Bucs team in Tampa Bay, where the team has won two straight games and is building momentum. Carr needs some help from someone other than star wide receiver Chris Olave.

At times, that help has come from receiver Rashid Shaheed and from a tight end room that includes Juwan Johnson, Taysom Hill, Jimmy Graham and Foster Moreau, as well as running back Alvin Kamara. But it hasn’t been consistent enough for the Saints offense to put up enough points to make up for a shaky defense. New Orleans has the ninth-best scoring defense, allowing just 19.8 points per game, but has given up 27, 24, 33 and 30 points in last four losses.

In order for the Saints to beat the Bucs and have a chance at winning the NFC South, New Orleans must create turnovers on defense and pressure Baker Mayfield. Winning the turnover battle always has extra significance when these two teams get together. So the Saints winning this important stat is paramount if New Orleans is going to have a chance of ending its three-game losing streak to Tampa Bay.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs vs. Saints DE Carl Granderson

Bucs OT Tristan Wirfs and Saints DE Cameron Jordan – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Cameron Jordan is no longer the top pass rushing threat in New Orleans. At age 34, the aging Jordan has just two sacks after posting 8.5 last season and 12.5 sacks the year before that. Granderson, the Saints’ other defensive end, has emerged as a real pass rushing force with a team-leading and career-high 8.5 sacks this year. After being a rotational pass rusher for years behind the likes of Trey Hendrickson and Marcus Davenport, their departures have paved the way for Granderson to start and he’s making the most of that opportunity.

At 6-foot-5, 261 pounds, Granderson has long arms and an intriguing blend of power and quickness. Combined with a high motor, Granderson has caused fits for left tackles in recent weeks, compiling a sack in each of the last three games. With Wirfs battling various injuries this year, especially over the second half of the season, this is a battle worth watching as a blindside hit against Baker Mayfield could change the outcome of Sunday’s game.

After a hot start to his first season playing left tackle, Wirfs has cooled off considerably down the stretch. Thirteen out of the 24 pressures Wirfs has allowed this season have come over the past six games, including all five of the sacks he’s surrendered. Wirfs will have to play every snap like it’s his last to match Granderson’s motor on Sunday.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs Cornerbacks vs. Saints WR Chris Olave

Bucs CB Carlton Davis III and Saints WR Chris Olave – Photo by: USA Today

New Orleans will be without Michael Thomas again, so Olave will have to carry the Saints’ downfield passing attack. In his three games against Tampa Bay – all losses – he’s really struggled, and that’s been a key to the Bucs’ victories over their division rival. In Olave’s first career game against the Bucs in 2022, he was targeted 13 times but only wound up with five catches for 80 yards. New Orleans’ first-round pick also fumbled in the fourth quarter of that 20-10 Saints loss.

It hasn’t gotten any better for Olave since then. He was held to just four catches for 65 yards in Tampa Bay’s 17-16 come-from-behind win at Raymond James Stadium last year. Olave was also targeted six times in this year’s 26-9 Bucs victory in New Orleans, but finished with just one catch for four yards. In three games against Tampa Bay, Olave has been targeted 25 times but only has 10 catches for 149 yards with zero touchdowns.

Whether it’s Jamel Dean or Zyon McCollum covering him outside (Carlton Davis III might not play due to a concussion), or Christian Izien with coverage in the slot, the Bucs cornerbacks need to make sure Olave doesn’t get into a groove with quarterback Derek Carr. Olave has 81 catches for 1,041 yards and four touchdowns this year. Part of the reason why the Bucs won in such convincing fashion in Week 4 was because Olave was smothered in coverage. If Tampa Bay can pull that off again, the Bucs could cruise to another easy victory.