The path ahead toward a fifth straight NFC South title and a sixth consecutive playoff appearance is there for the 7-5 Bucs. The simplest way forward is to win their next three games, as that would allow them to wrap up their five-peat before Christmas and give them a chance to work on their seeding over Weeks 17 and 18. That three-game stretch is against all divisional foes, and it begins Sunday afternoon at Raymond James Stadium when the 2-10 Saints come to town.

Tampa Bay enters Week 14 with a half-game lead over Carolina atop the NFC South. With the Panthers on their bye week, the Bucs have a chance to extend their lead to a full game with a win over the Saints. Not only that, but Todd Bowles and his team will be looking for a third sweep of New Orleans in the last four years. Since taking over for Bruce Arians back in 2022, Bowles is 6-1 against the Saints.

Speaking of Bowles and his team’s success, the closing stretches to seasons have been their best, especially since Baker Mayfield arrived ahead of the 2023 season. Dating back to 2023, the Bucs are a dominant 11-2 between Weeks 13 and 18. They’ll be looking to make that 12-2 this Sunday as they chase yet another strong finish and yet another division title, the franchise’s eighth.

Now, let’s dive further into what might decide this matchup, as well as some key players to watch in this contest between division rivals:

What Might Decide This Bucs-Saints Matchup?

It’s not like the Bucs offense was firing on all cylinders with its 20-point output in last week’s win over the Cardinals or anything, but you could instantly see how much Bucky Irving‘s presence does for the unit as a whole. The Saints come in with the 21st-ranked run defense in the league as opposed to the seventh-ranked pass defense, so offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard would be wise to lean on Irving and the run game to open things up early. And he would also be wise to make use of Rachaad White and Sean Tucker, too, as a three-headed monster at running back could really wear this New Orleans defense down as the game goes on.

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: USA Today

As much as it would help for Irving and the backfield to drive the offense in this matchup, Baker Mayfield is still the heart and soul of this group and it feels like he’s due for a big day. New Orleans is tough against the pass, but Mayfield and the Tampa Bay aerial attack left some plays out there last week and with that, it feels like they’re close. A sharp day from No. 6 – perhaps his first multi-touchdown game since Week 10 or even his first 300-yard passing day since Week 5 – could swing this closer to a Buccaneer blowout of the Saints.

There’s intrigue as to what Mayfield’s receiving corps will look like Sunday, too. Yes, the Bucs will be looking for Emeka Egbuka to look more like the rookie sensation he was earlier this season and they’d love to have Chris Godwin Jr. continue to round back into form. But could they see another receiver or two back in the fold? They opened the 21-day practice windows for Mike Evans (collarbone) and Jalen McMillan (neck) this week, and there’s reportedly a good chance Evans could be back this Sunday. It may be too early for McMillan, but if one or both receivers are back even on a limited basis, it’ll make the Tampa Bay passing attack much more difficult to defend.

On defense, the Bucs should be able to tee off and take advantage of a very poor Saints offense like they did in Week 8. On that day, Tampa Bay racked up five sacks and four takeaways, and that’s the kind of effort this unit needs to replicate this time around in Tampa. Good teams look like good teams against bad ones, don’t they? If Todd Bowles‘ side of the ball is going to aid in that effort, it needs to finish sacks better than it did last week and force rookie quarterback Tyler Shough into some mistakes.

Bucs CB Zyon McCollum and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR

Speaking of Shough, Tampa Bay can’t afford to let him have it easy. He’s not a quarterback phenom by any stretch, but he’s certainly capable of hitting the easy throws that are left out there for him. More specifically, if this Buccaneer defense continues to allow slant after slant over the middle of the field, that’s something that will allow this struggling Saints offense to sustain drives. Teams have successfully targeted Zyon McCollum in the last couple of weeks, and you can bet Kellen Moore will try to give his young quarterback manageable situations in which he can go after him, too.

Perhaps the overarching key to this game for the Bucs is to start fast and get up early. If they can do that, they should be able to put together a convincing win, one that will be big for their confidence and have them riding high into Week 15 off a short week. They can’t let the Saints hang around all day. For whatever reason, New Orleans has put up a better fight against Tampa Bay at Raymond James Stadium than it has at the Superdome in recent years. That trend can’t continue here on the first Sunday of December.

Considering the gap between these two teams, the Saints can’t afford to lose the turnover battle in Sunday’s game and expect to come away with an upset road win. New Orleans has at least one turnover in 10 of its 12 games this season, and the team’s 19 turnovers is the third-most in the NFL. Shough has an interception in three of his four starts and four of the six games he’s seen action in. His lone start without an interception came in a 17-7 win over the Panthers. It’ll take a clean game from the second-round pick to give his team a chance to avoid a season sweep at the hands of the Bucs.

Saints QB Tyler Shough – Photo by: USA Today

The blueprint on beating this Bucs defense has been made painfully obvious since the bye week, with the Patriots, Bills and Rams all torching them with explosive play after explosive play. The question for the Saints isn’t whether they have that blueprint, though. It’s whether they can manage to create those explosives down the field. They haven’t gotten them out of the run game this season, and Shough is only averaging 6.5 yards per attempt. With downfield playmaker Rashid Shaheed traded at the deadline, New Orleans is going to need to find another guy to step up and make some big plays if they want to beat the Bucs.

Speaking of the Saints’ run game, it just hasn’t been productive at all in 2025. The team’s leading rusher has been held under 50 yards in nine of 12 games so far this season. Alvin Kamara’s 3.6 yards per carry is the lowest average of his career, Kendre Miller was lost to a season-ending injury after seven games and rookie Devin Neal has only just started getting an extended runout in recent weeks. But if New Orleans can get something – anything – against the league’s sixth-ranked run defense, it could go a long way in helping Shough on the road against Bowles and his pressure packages.

The New Orleans defense has a better chance of guiding the visitors to a win at Raymond James Stadium than Shough and the offense do. It starts up front with the pass rush, which has to get after Mayfield and get him off-schedule. Whether it’s getting to him for sacks or simply forcing him into inaccurate throws on key third downs, the Saints need their pass rush to do some damage. Chase Young comes in having racked up sacks in back-to-back games in addition to totaling 1.5 in the first meeting between these two teams, while Cameron Jordan, even at 36, leads the defense with 6.5 sacks.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and Saints DE Chase Young and MLB Damario Davis – Photo by: USA Today

Just as it’s important for the Bucs to get the run game going via Irving, White and maybe even Tucker, the New Orleans defense is going to have to step up and prevent this from becoming the type of game that Tampa Bay can just control on the ground for 60 minutes. This is the 21st-ranked run defense in the league, and it’s only a week removed from allowing 134 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries to De’Von Achane, Miami’s talented young running back. If the Saints can’t stuff the run and limit Irving, Tampa Bay’s own talented young running back, from breaking off big plays, it’ll be a long day for the NFC South’s current cellar dwellers.

And even with Irving as the defense’s primary focus, the secondary will need to be up to the task of stopping the Bucs’ impressive receiving corps. The Saints did a good job on Egbuka back in Week 8, holding him to three catches for 35 yards. Even the leading receiver on the day for Tampa Bay, fellow rookie Tez Johnson, was held to five catches for 43 yards. The task gets tougher with Godwin back in the mix and especially with the potential for Evans to return, but if there’s one strength on this New Orleans team, it’s the talent in the defensive backfield between Alontae Taylor, Kool-Aid McKinstry, Jonas Sanker and Justin Reid.

Key Players To Watch

Why not put even more of a spotlight on Bucky Irving here? The second-year running back ran 17 times for 61 yards and a touchdown last week and also had a 20-yard catch and run. He instantly added an extra element to the Buccaneer offense, and he could be ready for an even bigger workload on Sunday afternoon against the Saints and their struggling run defense. Irving could be in line for his first 100-yard rushing day of the season, which would be big for a Bucs offense that badly needs to find some consistency and balance down the stretch.

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: USA Today

It’s been said for weeks, but the Bucs need better from Zyon McCollum. He hasn’t lived up to the contract extension he got before the season began and has far too often been a liability in coverage for the Tampa Bay defense. He has gone four straight games since the bye week without a Pro Football Focus coverage grade above 63, and he has allowed a 61.9% completion percentage when targeted this season for 443 yards and five touchdowns while giving up 11.4 yards per reception. He needs to step it up, and it needs to start on Sunday. How about his first interception of the season?

Tyler Shough is the key on offense for the Saints. As much as they could use some big plays from Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson, everything will ultimately run through Shough. The rookie quarterback can’t afford to turn the ball over as he’s done far too often this season, and he can’t take as many sacks as he’s been taking either. His best game thus far came in his lone win, a 17-7 victory over the Panthers in Week 10. In that game, he threw for 282 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. It’ll take a game like that from him to beat the Bucs on Sunday.

Could this be the last time the Bucs see Demario Davis on the other side of the field? The 36-year-old linebacker, who turns 37 in January, has been a constant presence in the middle of the Saints defense for the last eight seasons, and he’s still productive in Year 14. He leads New Orleans with 111 tackles (53 solo), five tackles for loss, two passes defensed, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery, and he forced a fumble in the meeting between these two teams back in October. He’s always a threat to make a play, much like the 35-year-old Lavonte David is for Tampa Bay.