The Bucs lost 31-23 to the Lions to end their 2023 season. And the final drive makes some of this single situation a moot point. However, it is likely that you, a Bucs fan, will see Tampa Bay go for a two-point conversion while trailing by eight points in the future. It is my hope that this can act as a primer of sorts for why Bucs head coach Todd Bowles might do it in the future, this lone result be damned.

A few caveats to start. There will be some math to this. If you don’t like the idea of math with your football this may not be the most enjoyable read.

Secondly, this is not an endorsement for the play call that was chosen. That’s a separate issue. This article simply lays out the odds of various scenarios and presents the statistically best option. With that said, let’s get into it.

Bucs’ Odds Of Converting A 2-Point Conversion Were Better Than Playing For OT

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

I pulled all of the 2-point conversions attempted in 2023 – all 132 of them. Of those, 73 of those were converted. That’s a 55% success rate. Converting that 2-point play would have brought the Bucs to within six points. If their defense could stop the Lions offense (which they did) and Tampa Bay’s offense scores another touchdown (which they didn’t) an extra point would have won the game.

Even if the 2-point try failed (which it did) the Bucs were still within a touchdown because they would have just needed to convert on another two-point try to still match the outcome of kicking two extra points.

The key here is playing to avoid overtime. The reason why Tampa Bay should have (and evidently did) want to avoid overtime is because it was likely a losing strategy. Underdogs historically have a 44%-win rate in overtime. The Bucs were taking an 11% margin by opting for the two-point conversion over trying to get to the fifth quarter.

The Odds Of Failing Twice Are Low

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

Many people who argue against going for two points while down eight points bring up the fact that if you fail on the first attempt you are then required to make the second. And that is true. But compounding probability events shows that decreases the chances of full failure.

In this scenario where chances of failure in isolation are 45% the chance of failing twice is just a hair over 20%. This means the odds you convert on at least one of the two-point tries is just under 80%.

Now some might argue that if you are going to go for two points you should wait until the second touchdown to make the attempt. Intuitively, I get the sentiment. If you miss the initial try it can have a negative effect on team morale and reduce the odds you get the second touchdown.

But this gives away the statistical advantage of getting two shots at the attempt. You have taken an 80% success rate (the odds of converting at least one of two attempts) and knocked it back down to 55%. That’s not a smart play.

Add in the fact that since 2015, when the NFL pushed the extra point attempt back, opting for the kick is not an automatic. Extra-point conversions hover around 95% success rates. That means the odds of hitting both kicks is 90.25%. Factoring in everything, the Bucs gave up 10% in added failure rate for 11% in added success rate. That’s winning at the margins.

In An Aggressive Sport Have An Aggressive Mentality

Football is a game of aggressiveness and aggression. It boggles my mind that so many who have grown up in it feel so entrenched to make decisions that are timid in nature. It makes no sense. Every decision, in life as well as the game of football, has a risk/reward relationship.

It’s a delicate balance that requires careful consideration. But the game of football for too long has given an outsized weight to the risk side of the equation. And that needs to change. I am happy to see it is starting to. Even for a more risk-averse coach like Todd Bowles.

The best way I can sum things up is by reminding everyone that the goal is not to play for a tie. Because … you play to win the game.