A new Pewter Report Roundtable debuts every Tuesday during the Bucs’ regular season. Each week, the Pewter Reporters tackle another tough question. This time, with Tampa Bay’s second-round playoff game set for Sunday afternoon, the Roundtable comes together on Wednesday. This week’s prompt: What kind of game must it be for the Bucs to win?

Scott Reynolds: Shut Down Lions Rushing Attack, Establish Bucs Ground Game

The Bucs did a remarkable job of shutting down the Lions’ running game in Week 6, holding Detroit to just 40 yards on 22 carries. Before he was knocked out of the game before halftime, David Montgomery only had 14 yards on six carries. While it wasn’t enough to beat the Lions that day, as the Bucs lost 20-6, Tampa Bay’s defense was able to hold Detroit 10 points under its scoring average at the time.

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

The reason why the Lions offense wasn’t as explosive was because it was turned into a one-dimensional attack. Quarterback Jared Goff did throw for over 300 yards and had a pair of touchdown passes, but Detroit had scored 30 points or more in three of the previous five games prior to playing Tampa Bay. Goff is better when the Lions have balance on offense as his play-action passes are more effective.

The Lions have the league’s sixth-ranked rushing attack, averaging 132.8 yards per game. Meanwhile, the Bucs run defense is ranked fourth, allowing an average of 92.3 yards per game. Tampa Bay is 7-2 this year when holding opponents to under 100 yards rushing. Those only two losses were to Detroit (40 yards) and Houston (53 yards). The Bucs are 2-6 when they do allow their opponent to hit 100 yards or more.

Conversely, the Bucs’ running game didn’t have much success back in Week 6 against a Lions team that is ranked second in defending the run, allowing an average of 87.6 yards per game. Tampa Bay ran for just 46 yards on 16 carries against Detroit, but has improved mightily during the season.

The Bucs are coming off back-to-back games where they’ve run the ball for over 110 yards. That has created enough balance to make the Bucs avoid three-and-outs and then salt away wins at Carolina and against Philadelphia late in the fourth quarter.

It sounds old-fashioned and contrite, but stopping the run on defense and establishing the run on offense is definitely a key to victory in this playoff game against old NFC Central foes. Both rushing attacks were stymied back in Week 6. If Tampa Bay can shut down Detroit’s run game and get Rachaad White close to 100 yards on the ground with another 20 or so from Chase Edmonds the Bucs can beat the Lions.

Matt Matera: Whichever Defense Limits The Chunk Plays Will Win

What makes this next playoff game for the Bucs a great test is that the Lions are such a threatening group on offense. They have tons of weapons, tons of speed and can score at any moment. That was put on display when these teams met up in Raymond James Stadium back in Week 6. 

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown broke several tackles in that game and greatly benefited from his ability to pick up yards after the catch. He also hurt the Bucs with a 27-yard touchdown while Tampa Bay allowed a 45-yard score to Jameson Williams as well. Those chunk plays made all the difference and they need to be stopped in the second matchup.

Now the Bucs will look much different on defense this time around. It looks like Zyon McCollum will stay at safety where he played last week, which means more speed in the secondary for Tampa Bay. If you recall, the big touchdown by Williams was allowed by strong safety Ryan Neal, much to the ire of Bucs fans.

Tampa Bay is different on offense as well. They’re a much more comfortable group that has figured out what works for their group. The Bucs had some chunk plays of their own in the postseason with catch-and-run touchdowns by David Moore of 44 yards and by Trey Palmer of 56 yards, plus a 23-yard catch by Chris Godwin in the end zone. 

Detroit can allow the big play, too. They gave up a 50-yard touchdown to Puka Nacua and a 38-yard score from TuTu Atwell last week in the playoff win at home, so the Bucs will take their shots with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

Another storyline from that first game between the Bucs and Lions was that Baker Mayfield missed some throws down the field in Week 6. Well, he was hitting them on Monday. So if he continues that on Sunday the Bucs will be in good shape.

Bailey Adams: Am I Wrong For Saying A Similar Game As The Bucs Had In Week 6?

I know it might sound a bit funny on the surface considering the Bucs lost to the Lions 20-6 in Week 6, but I think the game on Sunday can play out in a similar way and it would put Tampa Bay in a good position to win this time around. A similar game as the one they played in Week 6 — but with some improvements in a few areas — could have the Bucs dancing into the NFC Championship Game.

Bucs DT Calijah Kancey and Lions QB Jared Goff – Photo by: USA Today

Looking back on that game at Raymond James Stadium, Todd Bowles’ defense held the Detroit offense to just 20 points after it had scored 31, 34 and 42 in three of its prior four games. The Lions’ normally potent rushing attack was tamed, as Tampa Bay’s front limited the visitors to 40 yards rushing on 22 attempts — a 1.8-yard average. The Bucs also held the Lions to an 0-of-2 mark in the red zone, bending but not breaking a couple of times. So, copy and paste those aspects of the Week 6 game, for one.

Where the defense needs to improve in this rematch is on third downs. The Lions were an ungodly 9-of-16 on third downs in Week 6, and this is where one of those aforementioned improvements needs to come in. Some of it might be regression to the mean, as 9-of-16 just doesn’t happen regularly. But a lot of it will come down to better play, especially on third-and-longs. Both of the Detroit touchdowns in that game came on third-and-13 and third-and-10. The Lions will make big plays, but the Bucs defense has to limit them come Sunday.

On the other side of the ball in Week 6, Dave Canales’ offense had plays open in the game, but just didn’t hit on them. Quarterback Baker Mayfield said it himself on Sunday night — he looks back on that game and simply remembers missed throws. He missed an open Trey Palmer twice on deep shots, plus he missed a wide-open Mike Evans over the middle of the field early in the game. Just flipping one or two plays their way could really make a difference for the Bucs this time. Running the ball better and having more success on third downs after a 2-of-12 showing in Week 6 would help too, as the Lions had a 13-minute advantage in time of possession.

I guess the point is, the Bucs were in this game the first time around. It was 3-3 deep into the first half, and they were still within four points late in the third quarter. There were just areas of that game that swung it in the Lions’ favor — big plays, third down success and inaccuracy from Mayfield. If Tampa Bay plays a similar game this time and cleans up those things, it’ll find itself in a good spot.

Josh Queipo: Bucs Need To Turn This Game Into A Shootout

The Lions are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL. They rank sixth in rushing EPA/play and fifth in rushing yards. Their entire offense is built off of running the ball effectively on early downs and then incorporating the play-action passing game off of that. They are very good at this. If it sounds familiar it is because it is exactly how Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales wants to establish his own offense.

Here’s the thing. If both play-callers are able to establish their visions for their offense in this game the Bucs will most likely lose. The Lions are better at establishing the run early. As a matter of fact, as good of an offense as they are, they are inefficient by modern sequencing philosophies. Detroit’s Ben Johnson, like Canales, loves to run early. And despite it not being as efficient as their passing attack, they are still one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Team 1: DET. As good as Ben Johnson is, could he be better? DET is 28th in 1d pass rate despite being 7th in pass success rate and 29th in run success rate. Imagine that offense if they are MORE successful on 1d 👀

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) October 30, 2023

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs’ best chance for success most likely lies in passing early, as they did last week against the Eagles, get up early, and force the Lions to abandon their run-first strategy. Doing so will force the Lions to go to a more traditional drop-back passing attack. And the numbers on Lions quarterback Jared Goff when forced into pass-obvious situations are stark.

When working off of play-action Goff is an extremely effective passer. He has a 70% completion rate, averages 9.4 yards per attempt and has thrown 10 touchdowns to just one interception. When he doesn’t rely on play action his completion percentage falls 3%, his yards per attempt drops by 2.3 yards and his touchdown to interception ratio goes to 21:11.

Now here’s the best part if you root for the Bucs. If Tampa Bay can force the Lions into becoming a one-dimensional passing game the Bucs can release the hounds. And that’s when Goff really regresses. When he is under pressure, Goff barely completes half of his passes, averages just 6.3 yards per attempt and has thrown 50% more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (6).

The Bucs would be wise to turn the game into a high-scoring track meet.

Adam Slivon: This Time, Contain Jared Goff, Allow Baker Mayfield To Sling It

Back when the Bucs and Lions faced each other for the first time in Week 6, Jared Goff could do no wrong as he completed 30-of-44 passes for 353 yards and two touchdowns. It was a great showing by him, and Goff had no problem finding Amon-Ra St. Brown, who had 12 catches for 124 yards and a touchdown.

Bucs DTs Calijah Kancey and Logan Hall – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

This time around, a large part of stopping the Lions means that the Bucs’ secondary needs to play tighter coverage and not allow chunk plays to develop. That includes on third downs, as Detroit converted 9-of-16 third-down attempts. It’s a tall task to limit their offense, but Todd Bowles has already called one defensive masterpiece against Philadelphia on Monday night. Bowles will need to do the same in the Motor City.

On the flip side, finding ways to continue airing it out should be the focus for both Dave Canales and Baker Mayfield. Mayfield and the rest of the offense is coming off a bounce back game in putting up 30 of the team’s 32 points and 426 total yards of offense against Philadelphia in a Wild Card win.

But that was not the case facing the Lions earlier in the season. The Bucs’ offense was held in check, due in large part to not getting into a rhythm through the air. It does not necessarily need to be Mike Evans or Chris Godwin all the time, as Cade Otton, David Moore, and Trey Palmer all shined in prime time on Monday night.

But in the playoffs, teams advance or go home based on how much the quarterback moves the needle. To have a chance to win their rematch against the Lions, it’s going to come down to how much success Mayfield has throwing the football and how little success Goff has. A big game from Mayfield will also quiet one member of the Lions’ secondary in the process.