A new Pewter Report Roundtable debuts every Tuesday on PewterReport.com. Each week, the Pewter Reporters tackle another tough question. This week’s prompt: Who can the Bucs least afford to have a down year?

The caveat to this question is that Baker Mayfield was off limits in this discussion because the quarterback is the most important position on every team and no team can afford to have its starting QB have a down year and expect to be successful.

Scott Reynolds: Mike Evans Needs To Shine Once Again As Bucs’ Top Weapon

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

Touchdowns score points. Points win games. Nobody scores more touchdowns each year in Tampa Bay than legendary wide receiver Mike Evans, who is the Bucs’ primary weapon on offense. It’s no coincidence that scoring in Tampa Bay fell from 30 points per game in 2021 to 18 points per game in 2022 when Evans’ touchdown total plummeted from a career-high and franchise-best 14 TDs to just six scores. The Bucs’ win total also fell from a franchise-best 13 during the 2021 season to only eight in 2022.

So goes Mike Evans, so goes Tampa Bay’s offense. That much is clear. For further evidence to support this notion, the Bucs got back on the winning side of the ledger last year with nine regular season wins and a playoff victory as Evans rebounded and scored a team-high 13 touchdowns in 2023. That total was tied for the league lead with Miami’s Tyreek Hill, and Evans also got tackled at the 1-yard line in a couple of games to help set up even more Tampa Bay touchdowns. As important as quarterback Baker Mayfield is to the offense, life would be miserable for Mayfield and offensive coordinator Liam Coen without Tampa Bay’s top target.

Evans proved last year that he could still play at a Pro Bowl level at age 30. He’ll turn 31 in August and there’s no sign of slowing down. Evans and Mayfield have an incredible rapport, and the Bucs’ starting QB is always looking for the 6-foot-5 target in the red zone – understandably so. A model of consistency with an NFL-record 10 straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons to start his career, as long as Evans is finding the end zone in double digits again and is on pace for an 11th straight 1,000-yard season Tampa Bay’s offense will continue to play at a high level.

Matt Matera: If Tristan Wirfs Isn’t Elite, There’s Not Much The Bucs Can Do

Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs – Photo by: Cliff Welch P/R

We’ve seen what it looks like when the Bucs have struggles from their interior offensive line. It led to the worst running game over the last two seasons, but luckily Tampa Bay made up for it in the passing game. They could benefit a ton from this because they knew whether it was on the right side or the left side, offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs had it covered from a blocking standpoint.

Wirfs will live in Bucs lore as one of the greatest draft picks in team history. From the time he stepped on the field as a rookie starter in 2020 while he helped the team win Super Bowl LV, it doesn’t matter how prolific a pass rusher was, if he was going up against Wirfs, the Bucs had the advantage. Even with an adjustment period of moving to the left side last year, he was still among the best in the league.

The Bucs have briefly seen what it’s like without Wirfs when he was unavailable for the 2021 NFC Divisional round playoff game due to an ankle injury. It wasn’t a pretty sight. If Wirfs were to somehow underperform this season, I’m not quite sure how the Bucs’ pass game performs at a high level since he is Baker Mayfield’s blindside protector. Tampa Bay will be trying to figure out the center and left guard positions in August, so they can’t afford to have any further question marks if something happens to Wirfs. Mayfield needs time in the pocket and Wirfs has given it to him.

The good news is that it would be downright shocking if Wirfs was anything less than spectacular. Despite ongoing contract negotiations, Wirfs still wants to play. He’s being smart about it only participating in individual drills in camp, and I don’t think the lack of reps in 11-on-11s will have any impact on his performance. Bucs fans can’t wait to get a deal done so they can truly see Wirfs used as a weapon in Tampa Bay’s new offense.

Bailey Adams: Jamel Dean Can’t Fail To Live Up To CB1 Status

Bucs CB Jamel Dean – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

With the trade of cornerback Carlton Davis III, there’s been a lot of talk about the pressure on Zyon McCollum as he steps into a starting role in year three. But that trade means there’s a whole lot on Jamel Dean’s shoulders this year, too. Dean is now the Bucs’ CB1, and that’s a role Tampa Bay can’t afford for him to falter in.

Now, CB1 in Todd Bowles’ defense doesn’t always mean the same thing as it does in other defenses — especially those that play more man coverage. Dean won’t necessarily be traveling with the opposing offense’s top receiver week in and week out the way other CB1s might. But there’s still a lot of responsibility that comes with being that top guy on the depth chart.

The big thing for Dean that would lead to him having a down season is injuries. That’s always the conversation with the veteran corner, and he’ll need to stay healthy and keep playing at a high level whether he ups his interception total or not. Though bringing in 3-5 interceptions would certainly be a huge help.

But the reason there’s so much pressure on Dean to stay healthy, avoid a down season and play his best football is the concerning lack of depth behind him. As high as I am on McCollum entering this season, you don’t want to be in a situation where you’re forcing him into a CB1 role if Dean is injured or playing poorly.

Not only that, but an injured Dean would mean McCollum at CB1 and lead to Bowles having to dip into his depth for a new CB2. Bryce Hall is the next guy on the depth chart, and while the team believes he’ll have a big role and come through when needed, there’s an air of uncertainty around the level of play he’d provide when thrust into a starting role. Not to mention, behind Hall there are a host of second-year guys who were Day 3 picks or undrafted free agents last year — as well as some undrafted rookies from this year.

So the Bucs would be best served if Dean can stay on the field and play at the steady level he’s maintained for much of his career (again, more INTs would help). Because if there is a down year or another injury-plagued season in store for No. 35, I have questions about whether Tampa Bay can survive it.

Josh Queipo: Imagine Where This Team Would Be Without Antoine Winfield Jr.

Bucs FS Antoine WInfield Jr. and Falcons QB Desmond Ridder – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs would not have been a playoff team last year if not for superhuman plays made by All-Pro free safety Antoine Winfield Jr. There was the goal-line punchout against the Panthers in Week 18 that helped save a touchdown and preserve a 9-0 victory that ultimately seal the division title. That is the easiest direct link between him and a win turning into a potential loss. But there were so many more.

Six sacks, an NFL-high six forced fumbles and three interceptions are game-changing plays that typically yield some of the most dramatic EPA swings in a game. Last year Winfield accounted for 15 such plays by himself. That was 19% of the entire team’s output in those areas, including 29% of their FF + INT totals. That’s insane. It is so rare for a safety to have that kind of an impact on the game that if he were to have a down season, the entire defense would change. And obviously not for the good.

Transcendent players transform their respective units. The Legion of Boom in Seattle would not have been the same without Earl Thomas’ ability to patrol centerfield. The Jets defenses in the late 2000s would never have come to pass if not for Darrelle Revis bringing Revis Island to New York. Without Winfield the Bucs defense quickly looks average. And the team is counting on the defense to be considerably better than average right now heading into the 2024 season. That means Winfield needs to bring it again this season.

Adam Slivon: Bucs Cannot Afford For Vita Vea To Regress

Bucs DT Vita Vea – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Heading into 2024, the Bucs defensive line will be relying on Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey to anchor the trenches. Vea, 29, the team’s longtime run-stuffer and sack leader in 2022, trained hard this offseason to slim down and prolong his career into his 30s.

Now that he is in prime shape, the expectation is that he forms a lethal duo with Kancey, perhaps having a career year in the process. After suffering some lower-body injuries in recent seasons though, the team cannot afford him to get injured again this season. His presence at nose tackle opens things up for Kancey to apply pressure on the quarterback. It also has been huge in plugging up running lanes, as the Bucs often rank near the top of the league for their stingy run defense.

For Todd Bowles’ unit to generate consistent pressure and rank highly, Vea is a crucial piece. If he goes down for any stretch of time or regresses this season, it will lead to more attention being given to Kancey and weakening his potential to be special. It would also have a ripple effect along the defense perhaps larger than any other spot, as both the secondary and linebacker groups have more depth than defensive tackle.

Behind Vea, Greg Gaines returned on a one-year deal to provide depth, while Mike Greene remains in the fold as a bubble player. Logan Hall is more of a three technique defensive tackle rather than a nose tackle. While Gaines is a capable rotational piece, the front seven would greatly miss Vea’s presence, especially as much is expected of him heading into this season. Nose tackle may not be the first position you think of as most important, but Vea’s defensive impact is just as massive as his physical stature.