The 2023 NFL schedule was released last Thursday night and there are already some predictions rolling in for the Bucs and their brethren in the NFC South. NFL.com’s analytic expert Cynthia Frelund projected 53-man rosters for all 32 teams and simulated all 272 regular season games 100,000 times to find the projected win totals for every team in the NFC.

Unfortunately for the Bucs, they’re not in for a good season, according to Frelund and her computers.

Frelund’s Analysis On Bucs’ 2023 Expected Win Total

Here is what NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund had to say about the Bucs’ expected win total this year along with the Las Vegas betting odds for Tampa Bay. That over-under looks enticing, as the Bucs might be primed for at least seven wins this season.

Tampa Bay Bucs – 6.4 wins

Bucs CB Carlton Davis III – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Week 3’s home contest against the Eagles presents a challenge, but the Week 5 bye could provide Tampa with a chance to reset early in the post-Tom Brady era. Looming after that is the Bucs’ most daunting four-game swing: at the Bills in Week 8, at the Texans in Week 9, vs. the Titans in Week 10 and at the Niners in Week 11.

Win Total: under 6.5 (-140)

Make Playoffs: +400

Win Division: +800

Win Conference: +3500

Win Super Bowl: +8000

Here is Frelund’s analysis for the rest of the NFC South teams:

New Orleans Saints – 8.9 wins

Getting to face a pair of inexperienced quarterbacks (the Panthers’ Bryce Young, presuming he starts, in Week 2 and the Packers’ Jordan Love in Week 3) early in the season increases the Saints’ odds of winning those games — it takes time for novice QBs to settle in. Interestingly, the Saints have a 45.4% chance to reach 10 wins, which reflects how many NFC South showdowns project as 50-50 games. The Falcons, Saints and Panthers are all volatile!

Atlanta Falcons – 8.7 wins

Falcons head coach Arthur Smith – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Every year, there’s a team that jumps from the cellar to playoff contention. The more I dig into the NFC South, the more I think the division will produce that team — and the Falcons have a strong chance to play the role. Their win projection in their home game against the Panthers (Week 1) shifted more after the release of the schedule than that of any team’s win projection in any other single game.

Atlanta’s roster has gotten stronger, thanks to smart signings and draft picks, and the run-oriented offense is well-positioned to rack up first downs on the ground, potentially forcing Carolina rookie Bryce Young to throw more to keep up. Things will be different by the time these teams’ Week 15 rematch rolls around, but in Week 1, the Panthers will still be breaking in Young (presuming he starts) and adjusting to the many changes they made this offseason.

Carolina Panthers – 7.9 wins

Look for Bryce Young to really take a step forward after the Panthers’ Week 7 bye. If Carolina is to make a move toward playoff contention, this is when it will happen, with Young and the rest of the team potentially beginning to mesh in Year 1 of the Frank Reich era.