Just when you thought ranking season was over, they suck you back in one more time. The Bucs were the subject of some perceived disrespect recently when their receiving corps was ranked 11th-best in the league by Pro Football Focus analyst and former Pewter Reporter Trevor Sikkema.

The teams ranked ahead of the Bucs included expected groups like the 49ers, Eagles, Texans and Lions, but also included a few surprises such as the Bengals. It should be noted that Sikkema was looking at receiving groups holistically, incorporating the tight end and running back positions.

Bucs Receiving Options Are Top Heavy

Sikkema rightfully noted that the Bucs feature a pair of high-end receivers that top their room in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

“Despite their ages, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are still Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Over the past three seasons, they have earned cumulative receiving grades of 82.3 and 83.9, respectively. Both finished with receiving grades above 78.0 last season, as well.”

Evans and Godwin combined last year to produce 2,279 yards on 1,104 routes run. That combined 2.06 yards per route ranked 9th among all team’s top-two receiving options.

The clubs to rank higher than the Bucs were Miami (3.29), Houston (2.71), San Francisco (2.61), Los Angeles Rams (2.29), Detroit (2.22), Philadelphia (2.15), Kansas City (2.12) and Dallas (2.08). Six of those eight teams rank higher than Tampa Bay this year.

Bucs Suffer From Lack Of Consistent Third Option

Sikkema went on to explain that beyond Tampa Bay’s “Big-Two,” the next biggest factor in their passing game is their running backs, followed by their depth receiving corps.

“Throw in running backs Rachaad White and Bucky Irving, who should both bring plus ability in the passing game, and young receivers Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan, and there is a good group in Tampa Bay.”

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

Rachaad White has ascended to being considered one of the better receiving backs in the NFL. Last year, he ranked third in receiving yards with 549. But he also ranked first in routes run (451) by a healthy margin. When looking at his efficiency in terms of yards per route run, he falls all the way to 22nd overall at 1.22.

Furthermore, his -0.6 average depth of target shows that White really acted as a check-down/screen option more than a full-fledged part of the design of the offense. Rookie Bucky Irving will likely act as a similar option this year.

Trey Palmer had an up-and-down rookie campaign, but at this time is seen as a replaceable WR3, as evidenced by the Bucs selecting Jalen McMillan in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Both are unproven late day 2/day three options who shouldn’t be seen as needle movers.

Conspicuously, Sikkema did not mention tight end Cade Otton. Otton ran the second-most routes of all tight ends in the NFL last year (666) and still ranked just 21st in receiving yards, 34th in catch rate and 42nd in yards per route run. He is obviously seen as a non-factor, or quite possibly as a net negative.

Depth/Health Wins Out For Some Other Teams

There were four teams listed ahead of the Bucs who did not have a top-two that placed ahead of Evans and Godwin’s combined 2.06 yards per route run. They were the Vikings, Bears, Bengals and Seahawks. The Seahawks and Bears can boast better depth to justify their rankings. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are a close approximation in talent to Evans and Godwin, but with a better third option in 2023 first-round pick Jaxson Smith-Njigba as their WR3.

The Bears already had one of the 10 best receivers in the NFL in D.J. Moore. He averaged 2.31 yards per route run last year. They added Keenan Allen via trade. While Allen may not be the receiver he was five years ago, he posted just 12 less yards than Mike Evans (1,243 to 1,255) on 13 less routes. If Moore and Allen were a tandem last year, they would have ranked 4th in yprr.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

But then you add onto that the fact that the Bears used the 9th overall pick on Washington receiver Rome Odunze plus top-12 tight end Cole Kmet, and you have the makings of one of the most vaunted receiving groups in the NFL. Some may balk at the idea of assuming that Odunze will be good just because he has not played in the NFL yet. While I am not advocating for announcing him as the second coming of Mike Evans, we can create some reasonable expectations for him.

Eleven receivers have been taken with a top-10 overall pick dating back to 2014. Of those 11, nine can be considered good-to-great receivers, including Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Mike Williams, Corey Davis, Sammy Watkins and Evans himself. Only two, John Ross and Kevin White, can be considered busts who never turned into viable starting options. The average rookie season for those 11 players was 55 catches for 701 yards and five touchdowns. Those all trounce what Palmer produced last year.

As for the Vikings and the Bengals, both squads have a high-end receiver returning from injury this year. The Vikings lost Justin Jefferson, the undisputed best receiver in football right now, for eight weeks in the middle of the season last year. The Bengals were without Tee Higgins for five games.

My Own Rankings

Is Sikkema right? Obviously, this is a question that has no definitive way of being answered correctly. But I think despite the initial reaction of reflexively thinking this is too low, it is actually in the ballpark. While I know people love to have finite rankings, tiers tend to be more accurate and illustrate the “grey area” better. For what it is worth, here would be my top 2-3 tiers:

Tier One – Elite – 49ers, Eagles, Bears, Texans

These four teams have three or more high-end receiving options they can beat you with, as well as depth. If their top option goes down, the passing game can continue to operate at a high-level. Put them in whatever order you’d like.

Tier Two – Great – Lions, Dolphins, Vikings, Rams, Seahawks, Packers

These five teams have elite talent at the top two spots, but question marks behind them. If the top receiver goes down, their passing games will take a significant hit but still be able to operate at a league-average, to slightly above, level. Or, as in the case of the Packers, significant depth to compensate for the loss of one, or even two players. Again, put them in whatever order you’d like.

Tier Three – Good – Bucs, Bengals, Titans

These teams have a really high-end duo at the top. But should one of those players miss a significant stretch of time, the passing game could take a dive. Again, you can order these any way you choose.

While I don’t have the same order as Sikkema, I arrive at basically the same conclusion. Call us crazy. But while we may not be right, can you find fault in the arguments?