Early Wednesday morning, ESPN’s Adam Schefter broke the news that the New England Patriots would be releasing CB Stephon Gilmore. The 2019 Defensive Player of the Year could still be traded before the release becomes official at 4:0 p.m. ET. But for now, he’s expected to be free to sign with any team by the end of the day.

Per NFL Insider Josina Anderson, the Bucs are expected to be one of the teams in pursuit of the shutdown cornerback.

So could the Bucs sign Gilmore? Do they have the cap space? Is he a fit in defensive coordinator Todd Bowles’ scheme? How would his presence impact the team’s current situation?

The Health of Gilmore

Gilmore missed the last two games of the 2020 season with a partially torn quad. The injury required offseason surgery, and Gilmore has yet to play in 2021 after landing on the PUP list to begin the season. Per NFL rules, Gilmore was free to come off the PUP list after Week 6. By the time a new team brings him in and acclimates him to their defense, Week 7 would be the soonest he could probably play anyway.

As long as there are no lingering effects from Gilmore’s injury, this shouldn’t impact his market as a free agent. According to NFL Network’s Mike Giardi, Gilmore’s quad has healed just fine.

Now, does that mean Gilmore is ready to come back 100 percent healthy in Week 7? Probably not. He’ll need time to get back to the speed of the game after missing all of training camp and the last eight games going back to the 2020 season. In fact, Gilmore will have spent less time on a football field since last year than recently-signed Bucs cornerback Richard Sherman. At 31 years old, that’s a key factor in his market. Because of the element of unknown in how he’ll return from the injury, Gilmore could be looking at mostly one-year (really, half-season) rental contracts rather than multi-year offers.

The Cap Situation

The Bucs have a little over $3 million in cap space, but I only see that as a concern if Gilmore doesn’t want to sign with a contender. If he does, he’s probably not that concerned about money. He’s concerned about playing time and a chance to shine in the right scheme before cashing in next offseason. Right now, money is tight for most teams. Gilmore would be a lot smarter to play half-a-season in the right situation, rather than chase a long-term deal for less than he’ll get this offseason.

Because of that, I actually don’t see the cap space as a huge obstacle, if the Bucs are serious about signing Gilmore – and if Gilmore wants a realistic chance at winning a ring. They have to do some small restructuring to make a little space, but it’s doable to match offers from most other competitors. It all depends on what Gilmore is looking for.

If he’s content with a half-season deal and a shot at ring for relatively cheap, the Bucs are a better spot than most. Even if Gilmore wants a big, multi-year contract, the Bucs could do it by using voidable years. That’s highly unlikely to happen, I’m just presenting the possibility. If Gilmore wants a pay day, the Bucs, and most contenders, will have a hard time making it work in-season without void years. I doubt the Bucs are going to do that.

The Roster Situation

This is where it gets tricky. First, we don’t know yet how long Carlton Davis III is out. If his quad injury is season-ending, then a Gilmore signing might make sense. But if Davis could be back this season, even by the playoffs, I’m not sure I understand signing Gilmore. By the time he would be fully acclimated and back to 100 percent, Davis could be back. And Jamel Dean will likely be back this week too. Even Sean Murphy-Bunting is making progress and seems likely to return at some point this season, per Bruce Arians.

CB Stephon Gilmore Photo Credit – USA TODAY Sports

If everyone returns at some point, how does Tampa Bay make it work? Right now, Davis and Sherman would be the starting outside cornerbacks, and Murphy-Bunting would start in the nickel. Murphy-Bunting could also start outside and Sherman would play left corner in nickel when the third-year corner moves to the slot. Either way, those would be your top three cornerbacks, with Dean and Cockrell as the top reserves. It’s a crowded room, but this is if Davis returns this season.

For now, Sherman, Dean and Cockrell are set to start Week 5, with Pierre Desir as the fourth cornerback. Cockrell has played well since a suspect Week 1, and Sherman and Desir are trustworthy veterans. I don’t think the Bucs cornerback situation is dire right now, unless the new signees can’t play. Also, Gilmore might not be ready to play for several weeks. At which point, Murphy-Bunting could be back, even if Davis isn’t. This isn’t a seamless scheme fit for Gilmore like it was (in some ways) for Sherman. More about that below.

If the Bucs were guaranteed to get 2019 Gilmore, obviously you make the move. But Gilmore fell off some last year, and is now 31 years old. Tack on the injury, and there’s real risk here. Especially considering Gilmore likely won’t come as cheap as Sherman did.

The Scheme Fit

The best years of Stephon Gilmore’s career have come as a predominantly man-coverage heavy cornerback in New England. In fact, one of the reasons Buffalo moved on from him in 2017 is because of the scheme fit. Now, Gilmore has improved his all-around game as a cornerback since then. He can definitely play in zone, and the Bucs are one of the zone-heaviest teams in the NFL. But Gilmore is a better man coverage cornerback, so the scheme fit is a little wonky.

Of course, there’s always the possibility that Bowles is going to play more man coverage moving forward. He did in the playoffs, and it was extremely successful. After the pass defense struggled over the first two weeks, Bowles has played more man coverage in Weeks 3 and 4. So there’s the possibility that he would adapt to his personnel if he had Gilmore.

The scheme fit isn’t so bad as to prevent the move from happening, but it is a factor to consider. The Bucs already have a room full of corners that fit what they want to do, so they probably aren’t willing to extend themselves too much for Gilmore.

The Conclusion

Although the Bucs will definitely look into signing Gilmore, I don’t see it happening. Nothing surprises me with G.M. Jason Licht anymore, but Tampa Bay’s cornerback room is stocked with depth after their recent moves. They still want to leave space for their young corners to return to health and play, and Gilmore’s presence would detract from those opportunities. Plus, if he’s looking for a big pay day, that’ll end the conversation before it begins.

The Bucs face a 13-game slate of mostly weak opposing quarterbacks to finish the regular season. If they can stay on track, hopefully their cornerback room is at full strength in January. Gilmore would be a nice signing, but the odds feel stacked against this one happening. In fact, he’ll probably get traded to a team with more cap space than the Bucs before the 4:00 p.m. deadline.