After locking down one of their two-star receivers this offseason, Aaron Schatz of ESPN has suggested the Bucs should double down and extend the contract of veteran wide receiver Chris Godwin. Godwin is entering the final year of a three-year, $60 million extension he signed prior to the 2022 season.

Here is Schatz’s reasoning for the move.

“Godwin’s contract voids after the 2024 season, but let’s not overthink this. He’s absolutely an above-average NFL starting wide receiver and someone Tampa Bay wants to keep around. An extension might also help spread out the cap hit for Godwin over the three void years where the Bucs would be carrying dead money for him under the current contract.”

Bucs Set To Take Significant Dead Cap Hit On Godwin

Aaron Schatz isn’t wrong. As a part of some cap maneuvering in both 2022 and 2023, Tampa Bay has pushed the accounting for Chris Godwin’s salaries into future years. The years 2025-2027 are currently place holders for $18.852 million in dead cap that is set to accelerate to next year if Godwin’s services are not retained before the new league year.

That accounts for 35.4% of the $53,218,750 in dead cap the Bucs are set to absorb next year. If the Bucs were to extend Godwin that large dead cap hit would continue to be portioned out through those three years at much more palatable rates. $7.534 million would stay in 2025 and 2026 respectively and $3.784 million would be charged to 2027.

What Would A Chris Godwin Extension Look Like

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

After hitting the $20 million APY (average per year) mark in 2022, Chris Godwin has recorded back-to-bac-to-back seasons of 80+ catches and 1,000+ yards. With an exploding wide receiver market that just saw 11 players sign new or modified contracts of $20 million APY or more, including three who hit $30 million, expect Godwin to once again command over $20 million per year.

My current projections have Godwin in line for an APY of $22.25 million over three years, for a grand total of $66.75 million with about $44.5 million guaranteed. That is if he keeps up his current level of production in his contract year in 2024.

Godwin currently has just $1.5 million in guarantees left on his current deal. That’s a roster bonus that was due March 18. He would likely ask that the remaining $18.5 million of this year’s salary be guaranteed as part of the new deal which would push the total money to $86.75 million with the fully guaranteed portion rising to $63 million.

This extension would come with some short-term benefits. Namely, it would give the Bucs some additional cap flexibility in 2024 if they were to make the deal now. Godwin’s current cap hit for this year is $27,534,000. Here is what a hypothetical extension would do for this year’s cap hit as well as his future cap charges using the wonderful tool at overthecap.com.

The cash flows would give Godwin an extra $9 million this year while reducing his cap hit by $7 million in 2024. Further details:

• He would receive $22,250,000 fully guaranteed in 2025.
• 2026 would be a roster bonus of $8,750,000 fully guaranteed with another $8,000,000 in unguaranteed salary.
• 2027 would be $23,750,000 salary. None of that would be guaranteed.

This would leave the Bucs with just a $4 million dead cap charge in 2028.

Feasibility

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

From a salary cap standpoint this deal is workable for a Bucs team that has a lot of flexibility starting in 2025. And as I have previously mentioned, outside of Joe Tryon-Shoyinka having an 8-10 sack season, the next person the Bucs really have to pay once they get their long-term extension done with Tristan Wirfs is right tackle Luke Goedeke if he continues to play at a high level.

An extension for Chris Godwin could clear up some cap space for 2024 while clearing a small dead cap issue in 2025. From a guarantees perspective, the contract is effectively a two-year, $48.5 million deal with a team option for $18.25 million in 2027 when Godwin will be 31 years old.

The biggest hurdle to this contract is Mike Evans. With this new contract Evans vaulted Godwin as the highest paid receiver on the team at $20.5 million per year. This hypothetical deal would once again put Godwin as the high man on the totem pole.

And with just $500k of wiggle room between the two, there isn’t much room to work with to find a happy medium. If Godwin were to accept an APY of, say $20.25 million, he’d be giving up about $6 million in potential earnings over the next three years. Potentially he could be amenable to that if the Bucs left the guarantees alone.

While Schatz made some decent points in his blurb, I would rate the likelihood of this deal getting done as very low. Especially, considering the Wirfs extension continues to drag through the summer. The more plausible path is the Bucs make Godwin play out his contract year like they did with Evans and wait until the end of the 2024 season to assess his value as he turns 29. It has been their motus operandi for a few seasons now.

*Updated 7/4/2024 a previous version of this article incorrectly noted that the Bucs total dead cap charges for 2025 were $24,016,750.