Through two games to begin the 2024 season, Bucs wide receiver Chris Godwin has balled out.

Coming off a Week 1 game where he hauled in all eight of his targets for 83 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Commanders, Godwin put on quite the encore in Week 2. He was the primary source of offense through the air against the Lions, hauling in seven passes for 117 receiving yards and a touchdown – all in the first half.

Add those numbers up, and through two games, Godwin has been efficient and explosive with 15 catches on 16 targets for 200 receiving yards and two touchdowns. After being used mostly on the outside last year, his play has improved back in the slot in offensive coordinator Liam Coen’s offense.

Plays like this one are an example of different usage equating to better results.

With Chris Godwin having better results again raises a question the team has six months to figure out — is it worth paying what will be a 29-year-old Godwin over $20 million a year on a new deal?

Chris Godwin’s Start To 2024 Is Raising His Price Tag

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

Back in June, Pewter Report’s Josh Queipo analyzed what a contract extension for Chris Godwin could look like. Queipo had this to say then.

After hitting the $20 million APY (average per year) mark in 2022, Chris Godwin has recorded back-to-back-to-back seasons of 80+ catches and 1,000+ yards. With an exploding wide receiver market that just saw 11 players sign new or modified contracts of $20 million APY or more, including three who hit $30 million, expect Godwin to once again command over $20 million per year.

My current projections have Godwin in line for an APY of $22.25 million over three years, for a grand total of $66.75 million with about $44.5 million guaranteed. That is if he keeps up his current level of production in his contract year in 2024.

Instead of simply keeping up that level of production, Godwin is surpassing it.

That is only increasing his price tag.

Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

One comparable wide receiver contract is the three-year, $70 million deal that Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. signed back in March. His APY of $23.33 million is slightly higher and could be a better base for Godwin based on his hot start.

Both have had near-equal production in the last three seasons:

Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. – 2021-2023:

296 receptions, 3,159 receiving yards, 14 touchdowns

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – 2021-2023:

285 receptions, 3,150 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns

With Godwin finding the end zone twice already this year, let’s say he finds the end zone more in his contract year and finishes with 100 receptions for 1,200 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Then his numbers over the past three seasons look even better.

287 receptions, 3,247 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns

Even if Godwin does not reach that projected output and keeps up his three-year average rate over the next 15 games, his performance in Weeks 1 and 2 alone improves his APY estimate by $500,000.

Not a bad pay bump for two weeks’ worth of work.

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

In terms of catches, receiving yards, and touchdowns, both have similar playstyles as high-volume receivers with comparable explosiveness. Even in Dave Canales’ offense last year, Godwin had 15 explosive plays (pass plays of 20+ yards and runs of 10+ yards), equaling 18% of his 83 receptions. Pittman had 10 such plays or 9% of his 109 receptions.

That helps make up for the star Bucs wide receiver being about three years older, and it also makes it easier to believe that this is the ballpark Godwin will be swinging in when it comes time to sit at the negotiating table.

Pittman’s deal came with a salary cap of $255 million and took up about 9% of the Colts’ cap space. With a rising salary cap projected to be around $275 million next year, Godwin will get a slight bump up. That would come out to a three-year, $75 million deal at an APY of $25 million or a four-year, $101 million deal at an APY of $25.25 million, according to Queipo’s revised contract calculations.

With that laid out, is that something the Bucs would be willing to do?

There Is Plenty To Consider When It Comes To Bucs Re-Signing Chris Godwin

Bucs WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

After re-signing Mr. Consistent Mike Evans to a two-year, $41 million deal this offseason, the Bucs locked up one wide receiver north of $20 million a year.

Would the front office be willing to do the same with Chris Godwin?

Allocating over $40 million to two wide receivers who are (Evans) or nearing 30 years old (Godwin) is a difficult decision. The duo has been one of the best in the NFL since the latter joined the team, but Tampa Bay could choose to continue getting younger and cheaper while spending the money elsewhere.

The team drafted Jalen McMillan in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft, and after an impressive training camp and preseason, he could take over the No. 2 wide receiver duties as soon as next year. If the Bucs choose to keep McMillan as the No. 3 wide receiver and draft another top young wideout to take Godwin’s spot, the 2025 NFL Draft offers plenty of big names to choose from.

Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan, Missouri’s Luther Burden III, and Colorado’s Travis Hunter will likely be off the board when they are on the clock. Still, other names to know include Stanford’s Eric Ayomanor, Ole Miss’ Tre Harris and Antwane “Juice” Wells Jr., among others.

The flip side of this argument is that with $28,296,524 in cap space, the Bucs could afford to keep Godwin around and make additional moves thanks to the magic cap wand and wizardry of assistant general manager Mike Greenberg.

The biggest free agents outside of him next offseason include outside linebacker Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and inside linebackers Lavonte David and K.J. Britt. None of them are expected to command “big” money, and at 35 years old by then, David may decide to hang them up or re-up on an affordable one-year contract.

Re-signing Godwin also extends the established wide receiver play timeline in Tampa Bay, as Evans is a couple of years older and will likely hang them up before him. Having Godwin around to take over No. 1 wide receiver duties when the time comes is not a bad contingency plan for the future, and it would guarantee that one of them would be around for the entirety of quarterback Baker Mayfield’s own deal.

With the Bucs focused on building youth across the roster, the movement could continue by letting Chris Godwin walk in free agency. With how Godwin has played to begin this season though, Tampa Bay can easily afford to fit him into their plans.

Time, as it always does, will tell more of what the future holds.