It’s the dog days of summer for football people, and so it is also the days of baseless speculation. And that speculation has reached Tampa Bay.

Phil Perry who covers the Patriots recently went on a New England-area NBC affiliate saying that it would make sense for the Patriots to trade for Bucs receiver Chris Godwin.

.@PhilAPerry explains why we should be keeping an eye on Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin has a potential trade target for the Patriots 👀 pic.twitter.com/I4NSVzlX7B

— NBC Sports Boston (@NBCSBoston) May 9, 2024

Trading Chris Godwin Doesn’t Make Much Sense For Bucs

While Phil Perry lays out several valid reasons for why the Patriots may covet Chris Godwin’s services, the math doesn’t quite add up for Tampa Bay.

Godwin is one half of a very top-heavy receiving corps that lacks much experience if they were to trade away the veteran. Past he and Mike Evans on the depth chart, the team’s receiver room has a combined (including playoffs) 69 catches for 652 yards and five touchdowns. Last season Godwin (again including the playoffs) had 91 receptions for 1,109 yards and three touchdowns.

It doesn’t make much sense for the team to get rid of a veteran receiver who acts as a security blanket for his quarterback and can be counted on to make difficult, tight-window catches and comes up clutch on third downs. Especially, when there is a lack of reliability behind Godwin.

Yes, Tampa Bay drafted Jalen McMillan late in the third round, but that is hardly a receiver they want to count on as a starter when they have aspirations for their fourth straight divisional title and make a run at their second Super Bowl in five years.

Possible Trade Compensation

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

If the Patriots were to contact the Bucs about acquiring Chris Godwin a possible trade would likely not outweigh what the team would get the following year as a compensatory pick of the team were to let Godwin sign with another team after free agency. As a comparable situation the Bears just traded for Keenan Allen for the one year left on his contract at a cap hit of $23,100,000. In exchange for Allen the Bears gave up a fourth-round pick.

Allen’s production last year eclipsed that of Godwin’s as he caught 17 more passes for 134 more yards and four extra touchdowns. And while both receivers have missed time in the last few years (Allen has missed 13 games in the last four years while Godwin has missed eight games while also coming back from a torn ACL), the two have been extremely productive over the past three years.

Both have averaged over 90 catches and 1,000 yards over that time frame. Allen cost the Bears a bit more in salary and is four years older, so while they had to give up a fourth-round pick it is reasonable to assume that Godwin would fetch a third-rounder.

If Godwin were to have another season similar to his past few he would be in line for another large contract in 2025. A 29-year-old Calvin Ridley just signed a four-year, $92 million deal with the Titans with a far less impressive resume than Godwin.

If Godwin were to sign with another team next year and Tampa Bay does not make any high-profile signings, the team would be in line for a third-round compensatory pick themselves, though there would be a difference in years (the Bucs would likely require a 2025 pick from the Patriots whereas the compensatory pick wouldn’t come to them until 2026).

Jason Licht Does Not Have History Of Trading Away Players

Bucs GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

One of the reasons Phil Perry cites for the Bucs making the trade is for general manager Jason Licht to recoup some value for Chris Godwin rather than letting him walk in free agency for nothing. Setting aside the high likelihood that Godwin would bring back compensatory value in some way, Licht just doesn’t operate that way.

A short list of good players he let go includes Jordan Whitehead, Alex Cappa, Jameis Winston, Devin White. All of those players were allowed to play out the final year of their deals before departing in free agency.

The lone veteran starter Licht has traded in recent memory is Shaq Mason prior to last year. That move was made very early in the offseason as a cost-cutting move in a season where the team had to slash payroll. This year Tampa Bay has other avenues it can use to remain cap compliant instead of shedding Godwin’s $18.5 million salary.

Godwin’s future with the Bucs likely does not extend past this upcoming season. But it’s just as unlikely that he is jettisoned prior to the season as well.