Bucs wide receiver Chris Godwin’s head coach spoke about it. His wife spoke about it. His offensive coordinator addressed it. Even Chris talked about it.

Now I get my say.

Bucs-world is abuzz about what is going on with Godwin’s production and lack of involvement in the offense. It is THE hot topic of debate.

When Sam Monson and Steve Palazzolo make it the dominant part of a five-minute game preview, that’s when you know a storyline is blowing up. What has caused the drop-off? We know now that it’s not a reduction in snap count. I will attempt to answer the question.

Macro-level Context

I don’t know if you noticed, but the last few years the Bucs threw the ball. Like a lot.

Former quarterback Tom Brady set records for the number of times he attempted a pass in a season in 2021. Then he reset it in 2022. And again, forgive me for not knowing if you have noticed or not. But the Bucs are really striving for balance this year when it comes to their run/pass ratio.

Do you see where I am going here? From 2019-2022, the Bucs offense under Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich averaged 681 pass attempts per season. This year, current Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield is on pace for 579 such attempts. Add in backup quarterback Kyle Trask’s lone attempt and you get just about a 100-attempt decline.

That’s substantial. Logic would tell us a decline in opportunities for all will lead to a decline in opportunities for most individuals. The reduction in pass attempts is about 15% so we should look for around a 15% decline in targets for all receiving options with all other things being equal.

Here is a chart with some relevant data regarding that very subject.

During the previous regime Chris Godwin averaged 8.3 targets per game while maintaining a 22% target share when controlling for games played. His targets per game this year is 6.8. There is no doubt he is seeing the ball less, but not by nearly as big a difference as most might think. Remember, just by sheer volume we should have expected a 15% drop. His decline in targets per game is actually 18%. His target share has fallen from 22% to 20%. Even within the context of an offense that just passes less he is seeing a slight decline in his opportunity share.

Where are those targets going? To the guy everyone normally clamors to get more targets. Mike Evans. Evans is eating in the current version of the Bucs offense. His targets per game have actually gone up this year despite the drop in overall passing. His targets/game has increased from 7.6 to 8.3 while his target share has significantly risen from 20% to 24%.

I would argue looking at each player individually is not as informative as looking at them as a unit. Evans and Godwin have long been billed as a 1A and 1B combo rather than a one and a two. And if you take a look through that lenz the picture shows an offense that is leaning on that unit more, not less.

The right most part of the chart above does show that the two receivers combined are seeing one less target per game than in the previous era. However, as a proportion of the total number of attempts the receiving pair is accounting for 2% more of the team’s total target share. The Bucs offense is featuring their dynamic duo plenty and then some. And Godwin is still a big factor within that pairing.

He currently ranks 26th among all wide receivers in the NFL in targets for the season and third among #2 receivers behind only D.K. Metcalf of the Seahawks and Jaylen Waddle of the Dolphins.

Chris Godwin’s Targets Are Trending Down

With all of the above said, Chris Godwin has seen a reduction in his opportunities recently.

Since Week 9, his three-game rolling target share has been below the standard he set under Bruce Arians/Byron Leftwich. The downturn averages to about six targets every three games, or two targets per game. This comes on the heels of a four-week stretch when Mike Evans saw his target share dip below his previous norm.

It seems the offense tried to correct for Evans’ drop and dinged Godwin in the process. Still for most of the season the rolling three-game average for the two as a unit has been above, at, or near their previous level of 42%.  It should also be noted that Godwin’s recent decline coincides with a neck injury that almost kept him out of the Bucs’ most recent game.

How Is Chris Godwin Getting Involved

Last week Chris Godwin only had four opportunities to get the ball. Here is a cutup of all of them.

All 4 of Godwin’s opportunities from the CAR game.

1. Speed out to lead off game. Subpar throw/subpar catch attempt. Incomplete.

2. Miscommunication between WR/QB Baker throws Corner. Godwin runs deep out. Out would have opened up. Corner not so much.

3. TD Run.

4. Bad throw. pic.twitter.com/SKlV3ollxZ

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) December 8, 2023

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

The offense started the game early targeting him on a speed out. Baker Mayfield delivered a poorly targeted ball and the normally sure-handed Godwin was unable to corral the low throw behind him. On the second opportunity Godwin ran a deep out off of play action while Mayfield threw him for a deeper corner route. The ball was nearly picked off.

This most likely was an option route the two players saw differently. It was a rare deep opportunity for Godwin, only his eighth target of 20 air yards or more on the season. He and Mayfield have yet to connect on any of those shots which has capped Godwin’s big play potential.

The third play was Godwin’s 19-yard jet sweep for a touchdown late in the game to put the Bucs up for good. The play showcased Godwin’s ability to create with the ball in his hands and make defenders miss. The last play was an out/corner to the sideline. Mayfield puts the ball in danger by throwing behind Godwin rather in front of him to the sideline. The result is an incompletion and another near-pick.

No plays came to Godwin over the middle of the field. Nothing in the area that he usually does his best work. There was the one speed out, but Trey Palmer and Mike Evans both got as many or more of those opportunities despite Godwin’s combination of strong hands and explosive cutting making him the best receiver for those routes.

Where Are The Targets Going?

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

This is a nuanced question that has several answers. Let’s first take a look at why Mike Evans is getting the lion’s share of the targets these days. In the Carolina game, the Panthers invited the Bucs to throw to isolated receivers out of 3×1 formations. These plays feature a concept design as the main read to the three-receiver side. Attached to that is a single route by the isolated “X” receiver.

Pre-snap Baker Mayfield will try to decipher how the defense will likely try to defend the play. If he believes the isolated receiver will end up in a one-on-one with a favorable matchup, he will look to make that his first read. If he doesn’t see a favorable matchup to the X, he will continue the play through the concept. Against Carolina there were plenty of times where the pre-snap or directly post-snap read was favorable for Mayfield to look to the X receiver, and he was able to hit on several of those.

1 reason (there are many) 4 the slight drop in Godwin’s targets recently has been how DEF are playing TB. Earlier in the season coverages were rolled over Evans on 3×1’s. CAR decided 2 challenge TB 2 go after the X in those same formations. More often than not TB took advantage. https://t.co/ZP2I3LcZQP pic.twitter.com/UFrvFQiRsl

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) December 8, 2023

But not every one of those decisions was the right call. On this next clip Godwin would have been the primary read on the deep crosser from the concept side. Mayfield decided that Trey Palmer lined up isolated to the left as the X was the better option and he wasn’t.

Not every time though. pic.twitter.com/dl7Nv1pujd

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) December 8, 2023

Yes, Palmer was isolated with a one-on-one, but even with the single-high safety shading to the concept side Godwin’s crossing route was going to give him both vertical and horizontal leverage for a good gain on the catch and possible run after.

Chris Godwin and Baker Mayfield Are Not On The Same Page

Early in the season Chris Godwin was Baker Mayfield’s security blanket. Mayfield felt comfortable throwing to him in tight windows and Godwin rewarded Baker by bringing the ball in nearly every time. Something in that dynamic has gone awry and it’s causing Baker to pull back when he should be pressing forward.

Godwin’s the read and he is open. Baker adds a 2nd hitch which closes the window. pic.twitter.com/zCyCJsLYUe

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) December 8, 2023

Things Chris Godwin Does Best Are Being Given To Other Players

As I mentioned earlier, Chris Godwin is great at running out routes. He is explosive out of his cuts and has great hands. This makes him ideal for quick timing routes to the sidelines. But against Carolina some of those opportunities he would normally get were being given to Trey Palmer.

Traditionally CG has been the receiver TB targets 4 out routes. Those opps r now being distributed 2 other players. 1st play has CG in slot and Palmer as 1. Easily could reverse these roles. 2nd play (next play in fact) goes back to Palmer on a deeper out and it’s almost picked. pic.twitter.com/EiRrB2Y92B

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) December 8, 2023

There are other examples of this like return routes that Palmer has been running that would normally be a Godwin staple.

How To Keep Chris Godwin More Involved

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

There are several factors that can help increase Chris Godwin’s involvement the tad bit it needs to return to the 20-22% target share he was enjoying earlier this year. First, is giving him those speed outs back. They are typically easy way for the offense to steal yards and no one does it better than Godwin. Second, give it time.

Godwin was racking up touches on the concept-side when defenses were rolling coverages to Mike Evans’ side. After his 162-yard performance you can rest assured that Jessie Bates III will be over top of Evans this week. That will give Godwin more opportunities again. They can also make sure they are finding a manufactured touch per half for Godwin. Jets, end arounds, swing, bubble, tunnel or perimeter screens. These are all in his wheelhouse and Dave Canales can very easily ensure he has one per half dialed up to keep Godwin involved.

But in this offense as it evolves there are limitations to Godwin’s target ceiling. The Bucs don’t line him up as the isolated receiver in 3×1 sets like they do with Evans and Trey Palmer. This will limit his opportunities to work one-on-one and find more deep shots.

And as the Bucs have lined Evans and Godwin up on the same side more in 3×2 and 2×2 looks Evans has been (and most likely will continue to be) the first read on those plays. At the rate Evans has been playing of late, being the 2nd read in that progression is akin to the Reese Bobby saying, “If you ain’t first, you’re last.”