Schiano's Press conference says it all; he states that he plays a style that expects to be close enough late in the 4th quarter to win the game. That's why we are 4-10 and in two weeks we will be 4-12. No way does Schiano deserve another year!
It is a sort of passive mentality that isn't good. The offense isn't there to not make mistakes, it is there to win games.
With all those playmakers why would anyone be worried about the offense making mistakes?
Schiano compares more to Wyche at this point than Dungy.
I heard that somewhere before
Hey guys come on, at least we got a touchdown after halftime....
Schiano's Press conference says it all; he states that he plays a style that expects to be close enough late in the 4th quarter to win the game.
I didn't hear Coach say that in the press conference, Horse. Please tell me when he said it and I'll listen to it again.Meanwhile, here's what I know Coach Schiano did say: "All week we talked about making it a 4th quarter game, heavyweight fight, get it to the 4th quarter and find a way to win." And lo and behold, in the 4th quarter, against the 49'ers, we were behind by 6 points and had them 3rd and 12 on their own 29 yd line. That's called being in a position to win the game. Against the 49'ers with our injury situation, I'll take that every time. We lost because of 1) zero takeaways, 2) problems in containment, 3) problems in the run game. At least two of those reasons can be addressed in the draft and getting back key personnel.
Why the heck we run a draw every time we get in second and longer than ten.I mean we do it every time we get a sack or penalty that puts us there. We all see it coming, do they not self scout? Please ask Schiano this in a presser. It's beyond absurd at this point.
doc, I realize you are questioning specifically 2nd and long (10+) and it's predictability. It would be interesting to know how often we run in that situation and the results. And then the results on the ensuing 3rd down. I honestly don't know. It might be good, might be bad, might be 90% of the time. But it did appear to me that Rainey missed some opportunities (open lanes) yesterday. If I have the time, I might find some of those and see if others sees the same.Regardless, my thinking is that throwing the ball 40+ times a game is not who should be right now, and usually a good time to run is....2nd and long. Try to pick up at least some yardage when the defense is having to defend the pass more, making 3rd down manageable, run the clock, better chance at a breakaway, etc.
Conversion rate at 3rd and 10 in the NFL is awful. It is about 30% but past that it drops to 20%. In a second and more than 10 you have got to get under 10 yards to go to have a real hope. Running the ball your expect results are gonna be what maybe 6 yards is a good run. That still leaves you with a low conversion percentage down.
Sweep; I interpreted it differently than you did because if you play to be close in the 4th quarter to win, then it's likely you lose because you gave up other opportunities for being cautious earlier.
Sweep; I interpreted it differently than you did because if you play to be close in the 4th quarter to win, then it's likely you lose because you gave up other opportunities for being cautious earlier.
I read/ hear that opinion 24/7 Horse, you are not alone. I disagree with it.
Conversion rate at 3rd and 10 in the NFL is awful. It is about 30% but past that it drops to 20%. In a second and more than 10 you have got to get under 10 yards to go to have a real hope. Running the ball your expect results are gonna be what maybe 6 yards is a good run. That still leaves you with a low conversion percentage down.
dal, I respect your point, but I wonder what is the Bucs' success rate when we pass on 2nd and 10+ ? Success meaning converting on the 2nd down situation or the ensuing 3rd down.
Conversion rate at 3rd and 10 in the NFL is awful. It is about 30% but past that it drops to 20%. In a second and more than 10 you have got to get under 10 yards to go to have a real hope. Running the ball your expect results are gonna be what maybe 6 yards is a good run. That still leaves you with a low conversion percentage down.
dal, I respect your point, but I wonder what is the Bucs' success rate when we pass on 2nd and 10+ ? Success meaning converting on the 2nd down situation or the ensuing 3rd down.
All of our conversion numbers are low but I'd have to think passing is higher than running just because running is more of a zero rate of success vs a 10% rate. It really is about the mentality that if the offense suffers a setback you want to punt rather than try, and risk, overcoming those mistakes. I'm not saying there aren't places where you don't want to risk it but this isn't a situational decision this is pretty much across the boards, and since we have so many penalties we've had a chance to see a lot of these decisions.
Conversion rate at 3rd and 10 in the NFL is awful. It is about 30% but past that it drops to 20%. In a second and more than 10 you have got to get under 10 yards to go to have a real hope. Running the ball your expect results are gonna be what maybe 6 yards is a good run. That still leaves you with a low conversion percentage down.
dal, I respect your point, but I wonder what is the Bucs' success rate when we pass on 2nd and 10+ ? Success meaning converting on the 2nd down situation or the ensuing 3rd down.
All of our conversion numbers are low but I'd have to think passing is higher than running just because running is more of a zero rate of success vs a 10% rate. It really is about the mentality that if the offense suffers a setback you want to punt rather than try, and risk, overcoming those mistakes. I'm not saying there aren't places where you don't want to risk it but this isn't a situational decision this is pretty much across the boards, and since we have so many penalties we've had a chance to see a lot of these decisions.
I just don't see running on 2nd and 10+ as "wanting to punt", unless I misunderstood.
Conversion rate at 3rd and 10 in the NFL is awful. It is about 30% but past that it drops to 20%. In a second and more than 10 you have got to get under 10 yards to go to have a real hope. Running the ball your expect results are gonna be what maybe 6 yards is a good run. That still leaves you with a low conversion percentage down.
dal, I respect your point, but I wonder what is the Bucs' success rate when we pass on 2nd and 10+ ? Success meaning converting on the 2nd down situation or the ensuing 3rd down.
All of our conversion numbers are low but I'd have to think passing is higher than running just because running is more of a zero rate of success vs a 10% rate. It really is about the mentality that if the offense suffers a setback you want to punt rather than try, and risk, overcoming those mistakes. I'm not saying there aren't places where you don't want to risk it but this isn't a situational decision this is pretty much across the boards, and since we have so many penalties we've had a chance to see a lot of these decisions.
I just don't see running on 2nd and 10+ as "wanting to punt", unless I misunderstood.
What dal is essentially saying is the approach is they'd rather take a more conservative approach and run the ball and be willing to punt if necessary rather than taking more risk in throwing the ball. I think Schiano has hinted around this if not said so directly and it's hard to draw any other conclusion watching the games. They run a very risk averse offense.
Conversion rate at 3rd and 10 in the NFL is awful. It is about 30% but past that it drops to 20%. In a second and more than 10 you have got to get under 10 yards to go to have a real hope. Running the ball your expect results are gonna be what maybe 6 yards is a good run. That still leaves you with a low conversion percentage down.
dal, I respect your point, but I wonder what is the Bucs' success rate when we pass on 2nd and 10+ ? Success meaning converting on the 2nd down situation or the ensuing 3rd down.
All of our conversion numbers are low but I'd have to think passing is higher than running just because running is more of a zero rate of success vs a 10% rate. It really is about the mentality that if the offense suffers a setback you want to punt rather than try, and risk, overcoming those mistakes. I'm not saying there aren't places where you don't want to risk it but this isn't a situational decision this is pretty much across the boards, and since we have so many penalties we've had a chance to see a lot of these decisions.
I just don't see running on 2nd and 10+ as "wanting to punt", unless I misunderstood.
Basically when you choose to run in those second down situations your odds of getting to a good down and distance are so slim you are functionally giving up and just saying it is time to punt and we will get 'em next time. You always want a punt to feel like a failure to an offense.
When you make a statement indicating, "We want to send a statement saying although you know what's coming you can't stop it" you have to back it up. Schiano has the mindset but not the proof. I commend the mindset but please review the tape and figure out why it's not working. Same with repeatedly trying to run up the middle when there is clearly an overstacked box.
