Seems to be largely misunderstood that most polls in 2016 were actually right, not wrong. The result of the election came out differently because the Electoral College result did not match the popular vote . . AND POLLING IS A MEASURE OF POPULAR VOTE.
THIS IS AN ACTUAL ARTICLE FROM NOVEMBER 4 2016, so just 4 days before the vote) from the premier POLL AGGREGATOR, FIVE THIRTY EIGHT:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/
Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton
"Even at the end of a presidential campaign, polls don’t perfectly predict the final margin in the election. Sometimes the final polls are quite accurate. An average of national polls in the week before the 2008 election had Barack Obama winning by 7.6 percentage points. He won by 7.3 points. Sometimes, however, the polls miss by more. Four years ago, an average of survey results the week before the election had Obama winning by 1.2 percentage points. He actually beat Mitt Romney by 3.9 points."
"If that 2.7-point error doesn’t sound like very much to you, well, it’s very close to what Donald Trump needs to overtake Hillary Clinton in the popular vote. She leads by 3.3 points in our polls-only forecast."
Clinton 3.3
The election ended Clinton +2.9
And here is the key point from Silver, just FOUR DAYS BEFORE THE ELECTION pointing out THAT POLLS WERE WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR and also that TRUMP COULD STILL WIN EVEN IF POLLS TURNED OUT ACCURATE (which they largely did):
"All of this is to say that even if Clinton’s lead over Trump doesn’t shrink anymore, Trump might still win. He would need only a normal-sized polling error. "
"Still, Clinton’s lead is small enough that it wouldn’t take more than a normal amount of polling error to wipe the lead out and leave Trump the winner of the national popular vote. If Clinton wins by 3 percentage points, she’s very likely to win the White House. But that’s still a medium-sized “if.”"
CLINTON DID WIN BY 3 POINTS, BUT NOTE THAT SILVER ONLY SAYS
"If Clinton wins by 3 percentage points, she’s very likely to win the White House. But that’s still a medium-sized “if.”"
the same scenario sets up this election, BUT THE BIG DIFFERENCE . . . Trump would actually have to hold states where most polling shows his deficit is MUCH greater than the margin of error and he'd have to do so, in an historic turnout environment, somethign that has always favored Dems, but may not this year because the country is so divided.
"Prior to the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, just 50% of the voters thought that it really mattered who won, versus 44% who thought that things would be pretty much the same, whoever won. This year, a record 83%—including 85% of Democrats, 86% of Republicans—say that it really matters."
