The "current" Ukrainian government that seized power outlawed two major opposition parties so the chance of fair elections in a few months seems unlikely. The Russians are arguing that they have legal grounds to protect assets in Crimea, and since Ukraine gave them the keys to the door (an agreement) in hindsight that seems like a bad idea.Since Poland has mobilized forces near their own border and Ukraine has initiated a draft it seems that it is best the United States doesn't jump head first into the fray or else the situation spirals out of control. Indeed, Putin made the first move knowing that the West would take a few weeks to calculate a counter to what he has done. But there are still unknowns that even Putin did not anticipate (eg Poland mobilizing forces, G7 members response).
Joint statement released by the G7...We, the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States and the President of the European Council and President of the European Commission, join together today to condemn the Russian Federation’s clear violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, in contravention of Russia’s obligations under the UN Charter and its 1997 basing agreement with Ukraine. We call on Russia to address any ongoing security or human rights concerns that it has with Ukraine through direct negotiations, and/or via international observation or mediation under the ausp!ces of the UN or the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. We stand ready to assist with these efforts.We also call on all parties concerned to behave with the greatest extent of self-restraint and responsibility, and to decrease the tensions.We note that Russia’s actions in Ukraine also contravene the principles and values on which the G-7 and the G-8 operate. As such, we have decided for the time being to suspend our participation in activities associated with the preparation of the scheduled G-8 Summit in Sochi in June, until the environment comes back where the G-8 is able to have meaningful discussion.We are united in supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and its right to choose its own future. We commit ourselves to support Ukraine in its efforts to restore unity, stability, and political and economic health to the country. To that end, we will support Ukraine’s work with the International Monetary Fund to negotiate a new program and to implement needed reforms. IMF support will be critical in unlocking additional assistance from the World Bank, other international financial institutions, the EU, and bilateral sources.So Russia is risking political and economic isolation from the west.
Putin holds most of the cards...economic isolation isn't likely as Europe is heavily reliant on NG. Saudi Arabia cant make up for the amount of oil barrels from Russia, etc.In such a situation where the West is in a defensive situation you have to play the few cards you have right and don't do anything rash. The other problem is the Svoboda Party isn't sunshine and lollipops either so the West can't back them directly, especially Germany.
Even with Poland and Ukraine mobilizing their forces, it still is not enough to match Russia. No, they would need to resort to guerrilla warfare/asymmetric warfare tactics and not go out the Red Army head on - would be their only chance. The problem is that the current (temporary) Ukraine regime is not considered to be a legitimate government - and nobody (to include most Ukrainians) do not respect them as such. Now other governments want to support them because primarily, they are not pro-Russian. But at what cost because it is unlikely that any US/EU state will provide boots on ground in support of Ukraine. Which is why, what is to stop Russia from further polarizing former Soviet states to form the Eurasian Union. However, I disagree with the fact that the EU is solely dependent on Russia for natural gas. While it is true that they do import natural gas and crude oil from Russia, that is not there only supplier. Norway and Algeria also exports crude oil and natural gas, and there are countries in the middle east that could also begin to export. But in the meantime, that could wreak havoc on (temporarily) on EU economies because Russia could virtually [overnight] shut down that trade relation, with no remorse. It could have an effect on their export trade revenues, and if the US/EU begin more economic sanctions targeting specific members, freezing business and trade assets such as contracts Russia has with numerous other countries - that will have a lasting affect on their currency which could lead Russia back into the same fray they saw in 1991 when Russia crumbled. Especially now that the G7 leaders are all in agreement that this action could isolate Russia from the international community. There are cards that the US and EU can play here that does not necessarily need to lead to direct combat, which would be devastating, in particular to the US.
Russian financial markets are crashing. The Russian stock market lost 10%. And the Ruble falls to historic lows against both the Euro and the USD.
