ignored, denied and even mocked here in the Cove, this is yet another thing that Trumpettes routinely get wrong.
Under Trump the GOP has lost ground across America, the only place steady (not growing) white, mostly modest education, rural white men.
WOMEN
Republicans have long been the male political party and their ID advantage with men is unchanged at 8 points. But the numbers with women have moved sharply in the Democrats' favor. In Pew’s latest data, a merge from 2018 and 2019, Democrats held an 18-point ID edge with women, up from a 12-point advantage in 2015.
Add it together and the “gender gap” has grown from 20 points to 26 points, with Democrats benefitting.
RACE
Among African Americans, Democrats have maintained their advantage in the new data, up very slightly to 73 points from a 71-point edge in 2015. The Democratic ID edge with Hispanics has climbed a bit, about 5 points to 34 points from 29 points in 2015. And the Democratic advantage among Asian Americans has skyrocketed in the last few years to a 55-point edge, up from a 26-point lead in party ID in 2015.
EVEN WHITES
The GOP lead in party ID with whites has fallen to about 11 points in Pew’s 2018/2019 data.
AND THE EDUCATION GAP WITH WHITES
Republicans have actually grown their advantage among white voters who do not have a college degree. They now hold a 24-point party ID edge with that group. In 2015, the GOP held a 21-point lead with them.
But among whites with a college degree, the numbers have moved sharply in the other direction. Democrats and Republicans drew equal support among that group in 2015, 47 percent identified with each party. But in the latest data whites with a college degree leaned Democratic by 12 points.
AND Rural over everything else:
The Democratic ID advantage of urban areas has grown sharply since 2015 to 31 points, a 7-point increase from where the party was in 2015. Meanwhile, the Republicans have seen a huge swing in party ID in their favor in rural America. The GOP has a 23-point rural edge, up from 14 points in 2015.
In the suburbs, Republicans have seen their advantage erode to a single point — 47 percent to 46 percent. In 2015, the GOP held a 4-point party ID edge.
AND THIS IS WHY ITS A CUL-de-SAC
The party that was once the bastion of wealthy, white, establishment voters is morphing into something else, and, as it does, there could be some cause for concern for Republicans. The groups where the party is gaining support — rural America and whites without a college degree — are not the parts of the population that are growing.
yeah . . yeah . . FAKE NEWS . . .
That's not a sustainable approach. It's a "last gasp" approach with the electoral college and voter suppression as allies.
