Like FIVE THIRTY EIGHT, this is a statistical model based on aggregating and then adjusting polls:
12 "battleground" states that include Arizona and Iowa and Georgia and even Texas. Biden "likely" to win or better in all but 3 states, two "unclear and One Trump (Texas)
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
Arizona - "our model thinks Joe Biden is likely to beat Donald Trump in Arizona."
Florida - "our model thinks Joe Biden is likely to beat Donald Trump in Florida"
Georgia - "our model thinks it’s unclear whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden will win Georgia"
Iowa - "our model thinks it’s unclear whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden will win Iowa"
Michigan - "our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in Michigan"
Nevada - "our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in Nevada"
New Hampshire - "our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Trump in New Hampshire"
North Carolina - "our model thinks Joe Biden is likely to beat Donald Trump in North Carolina"
Ohio - "our model thinks it’s unclear whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden will win Ohio"
Pennsylvania - "our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in Pennsylvania"
Texas - "our model thinks Donald Trump is likely to beat Joe Biden in Texas"
Wisconsin - "our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in Wisconsin"
who knows how it actually turns out because this is statistical forecasting, meaning that a 4 out of 10 horse still wins sometimes, but in terms of the underlying data and the basic analysis, its worth looking at Trump and Biden to see who is on offense nd who is on defense.
Yesterday Trump was in the Lehigh Valley (described as a "pivot" region in another thread) and other places in PA. Biden was in GEORGIA and next stop is Iowa.
"WASHINGTON (AP) — One week until Election Day, Joe Biden is going on offense, heading Tuesday to Georgia — which hasn’t backed a Democrat for president since 1992 — and pushing into other territory where President Donald Trump was once expected to easily repeat his wins from four years ago.
The Democratic presidential nominee planned to travel to Iowa, which Trump took by 10 points in 2016, later in the week. His running mate, California Sen. Kamala Harris, is heading to Arizona and Texas, where Republicans haven’t lost any statewide office since 1994 — the nation’s longest political winning streak."
Georgia, Iowa are together 22 electoral votes, but the reason those two states are significant is that Biden being there a week out suggests that the Biden campaign's own INTERNAL polling has them ahead in all the traditional battlegrounds
The Biden campaign can definitely be wrong, so I am only pointing out that their actions are consistent with the statistical analysis above. If you look at Trump's actions, they are consistent with this model too, meaning he is fighting to hold "must win" states (ie "on defense")
