Statistically speaking, if Biden was to win either Florida or Georgia, the race would be all but over before it started. By way of example, Nate Silver shows that if Biden win FL (even losing GA) he is 99% to win. If Biden wins GA (even with Trump winning he Florida) he is 91% chance to win)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews
So, here's the great mystery: Florida has, essentially, already voted BY 2016 standards BECAUSE THE CURRENT EARLY VOTED TOTALS ARE 91% OF 2016. AND THIS IS WHAT THEY SHOW:
Nearly 9.1 million Floridians — 9,069,761 to be exact — have already voted
Registered Democrats lead registered Republicans by about 115,000 votes (and the gap is growing again).
THAT'S NOT MUCH, BUT THIS IS WHERE THE MYSTERY COMES IN:
"Nearly 2 million people with no party affiliation have also voted."
22% ARE UNAFILLIATED. 2 million are infrequent or first-time voters
are those more like to to be "shy Trumpers" or young people, people of color, Hispanics and Democrats? Obviosuly it could be all of the above, but here's one bit of insight:
"A report this week from Tufts University found that the number of early votes cast by Floridians ages 18-29, both in person and by mail, is up significantly from the same time period in 2016.
About 570,000 of the voters so far have been younger Floridians ages 18-29, according to data from Democratic voter targeting firm TargetSmart. That group’s share of total votes cast is up somewhat compared to 2016, according to TargetSmart data. But it’s still to be seen how overall turnout will look once polls close on Nov. 3."
Who knows, but there's a similar mystery in GA
