I agree with IB that Trump should win in a landslide given the great state of the economy.
Our views only part because I have offered a caveat that “Trump is Trump” so at a minimum that will make 2020 more interesting than it should be.
A WSJ Editor points out the statistical support for my caveat in an op-Ed article entitled, “The Downsides to Trump’s Slashing Style are Showing.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-downsides-of-trumps-slashing-style-are-showing-11577118382
After raising the good economic numbers, he comes back with two counters. First, Trump’s historically low approval ratings (for such a good economy):
“I n a normal environment, that kind of economic satisfaction and optimism should translate into a presidential job-approval rating of well over 50%—perhaps even 60%. Yet Mr. Trump’s job-approval rating stands at just 44%.”
“ Similarly, a president overseeing this kind of public confidence in the economy ought to be a prohibitive favorite to be re-elected. Yet a stunning 48% of those surveyed say they are certain to vote against Mr. Trump for re-election, regardless of whom the Democrats nominate to oppose him.
And an even 50% say they are “very uncomfortable” with Mr. Trump as a presidential candidate.”
More importantly though, the author points out voters pessimistic views as to where the country is headed:
“
For three decades, the survey has regularly asked Americans whether they think the country is moving in the right direction, or is off on the wrong track. Usually, sentiment on that question reflects the state of the economy.
Yet today, despite economic growth, a strong stock market and low unemployment, just 35% say the country is moving in the right direction. More than half, 56%, say the nation is off on the wrong track.
The partisan polarization on this question, as on so many others, is more stark than it has ever been. The explanation for such a mood isn’t to be found in the economy, but rather in a fraught political environment.“
Curious how Bush I and Carter did in the same polling
