Every person (like Island Buc) and the few polls that have Trump winning, reach that conclusion by applying an adjustment for "shy Trumpers," people who do not identify themselves in polls as Trump voters. It was those "shy Trumpers" who pushed Trump to a win in 2016 because the final polls and actual votes played out like this:
Michigan Clinton + 4 became Trump win with <1
Wisconsin Clinton +5 became Trump win with <1
Pennsylvania Clinton +4.4 became Trump win with +1
Here's the current problem with that approach today, using he exact same polling for accurancy Biden has a MUCH larger margin (except in PA) so if you apply the 2016 "shy Trumper" adjustment you get:
Michigan Biden +8.8 would still be Biden +4
Wisconsin Biden 8.6 would still be Biden +3
Pennsylvania Biden 5.2 would still be Biden +1
You have to add to this that Biden is also slightly leading in AZ (11) and NC (15) and basically toss up in FL (29) (I know its close in TX but that's hard to imagine)
BUT THE POINT IS THIS:
Are there MORE "shy Trumpers" in 2020 than in 2016 because he would need more just to overcome the current polling , even with the 2016 error AND that does not account for the seemingly massive turnout by young people and African Americans, both overwhelmingly Biden?
ULTIMATELLY NONE OF THIS ANALYSIS MATTERS because polls are like odds and a 1 to 4 underdog still comes in 1 of 4 times, but how could there be MORE "shy Trumpers" when 2016 "shy Trumpers" were voting for an "outsider" and solely on campaign promises (and dislike of HRC) and now there is this incredible negative track record (as undeniably evidence by the massive turnout)?
Just use the Cove as an example. There are at least 2 2016 Trump voters not voting for Trump in 2020 (according to their posts). Is there one pro-Trump convert? In other words, even if you are a supporter you'd have to acknowledge that there is some measure of "Trump fatigue" that has pushed some prior "shy Trumpers" away, so is it that he has somehow expanded shy Trumpers and, if so, how? where is the evidence of that?
(Again, polling is just odds so Trump can easily win and one way is just as Island Buc has predicted, which is winning PA, but you should be able to see above that it is Trump who needs everything to go right because lose FL he's dead, lose PA he is dead, win PA still may ne dead etc.)
If you wat to try the scenarios out yourself, here is a great tool for that, its Nate Silver's simulation (not poll) which is based off aggregating of all polls:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews
(he also picks NFL games lol)
