(If China will let him. There's evidence that China's strategy is to wait out 2020)
If China will let him, Trump will do another "Nafta 2.0" and claim new agreement is a "victory" for the US, but with little change. He will cave because he cannot win without farm country:
"The 19-month-old trade fight and its accompanying tariffs are becoming harder and harder to ignore in farm country. China has become one of the largest agricultural trading partners for the United States in recent years. It was a close second to Canada in 2017.
But since the fight began, U.S. agriculture exports to China have plummeted from $19.5 billion in 2017 to just $9.2 billion in 2018. That was the lowest amount since 2007."
And a cut like that adds to the economic pain in the heartland. Data from the FDIC this June showed that farm bankruptcies were up 13 percent from the previous 12-month period to 535, the highest level since 2012."
If things continued on this oath (and they could get worse, obviously), in 2019 there would be only $3-4 billion in exports and 2020 there would be ZERO. And, of course bankruptcies would increase dramatically.
THAT WOULD BE A TERRIBLE ELECTION YEAR. And China's top agricultural imports come from some of the five key states that Trump only won with razor-thin margins
Iowa is the top Soybean state. Trump won Iowa easily. However, Minnesota and Wisconsin are top 10ish in hay and alfalfa production. Trump won each state by only 1% (roughly). Michigan is huge dairy and grains. Pennsylvania is dairy.
Something has to give, so I say he caves soon. He nothing if not a political opportunist.
